"AZERBAIJAN DID WHAT THE EUROPEANS COULD NOT"

-Azerbaijan and Turkey have signed an agreement on the construction of the trans-Anatolian pipeline TANAP. What are the political-economic and geopolitical prospects of this project?

- The signing of the agreement is a major success for Azerbaijan as a state. It would have been impossible if Azerbaijan did not conduct a policy oriented to the West. It is important that Azerbaijan did what the Europeans could not, because Azerbaijan has gas, money for the construction of the pipeline, political will and a very effective mechanism for decision-making at the level of the government. The Europeans did not have all this. They had no gas, investment capital for the construction of the pipeline or effective mechanism for decision-making. Besides that, all European pipeline projects came into conflict with each other.

Azerbaijan will become an important factor in gas exports to Europe and begins to act not only as a supplier of oil, but also in a new role as a gas exporter. No less important is the fact that Azerbaijan has a real opportunity to become a transit country for Turkmen gas. This is a huge success. The TANAP project shows that Azerbaijan will become a connecting link between Europe and Asia in several aspects: transit of oil, gas and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. This gas project demonstrates that nothing is possible in the region without Azerbaijan. The key to the economic development of the region is in Baku. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey are moving forward and developing. Armenia has isolated itself because of its policy of capturing the territory of other countries. No-one has isolated them.

The TANAP project has consolidated Azerbaijan and Turkey even more. This means that the joint position of Baku and Ankara on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is even stronger. In 2009-2010, there was an attempt to split the common policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey and to compel Ankara to open its border with Armenia. The joint policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey suggests that opening the border with Armenia, including for energy projects, is only possible if Yerevan withdraws its troops from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. This link, which some people questioned, is now more consolidated. Now unilateral concessions to Yerevan are excluded until Armenia withdraws from the occupied territories. TANAP will pave the way for the implementation of the southern gas corridor to Europe. It is very important that this project creates an organic link between Azerbaijan and Europe. It never happened before and will happen after the implementation of TANAP.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan fulfilled the dream of the Turkish political elite, creating realistic prospects for Turkey to become a gas transit country. It is only thanks to Azerbaijan that Turkey became a transit country for oil: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, now there will be TANAP, and cargo transportation via Baku-Tbilisi-Kars. That is to say owing to Azerbaijan, Turkey will become an important transit country. No other country has even given Turkey such an opportunity.

- How effective will the launch of TANAP be as an impulse for another important project: the construction of a gas pipeline under the Caspian Sea. This project has been lobbied by the West for many years...

- This is a very important issue. The trans-Anatolian gas pipeline opens the way for Turkmen gas to Europe. As you know, the throughput capacity of TANAP will initially be 16 billion cubic metres, and technically it can be increased to 60 billion cubic metres a year. There is a scheme for capacity expansion: to 23 billion cubic metres in the second phase, to 31 billion cubic metres in the third phase, etc. It will not be difficult to increase the capacity, because there will be a finished pipeline and a land corridor through which the pipeline will pass. In a way, it is an invitation for Turkmen gas. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov immediately reacted to the signing of the TANAP agreement. He ordered the government to find additional funds to build a gas pipeline connecting western Turkmenistan to the Caspian coast - the East-West gas pipeline with a capacity of 31 billion cubic metres a year. The pipeline should be built by 2016. By this time, the level of gas production in the Caspian sector of Turkmenistan will reach 10 billion cubic metres of gas per year. In general, it is 40 billion cubic metres a year. This is the promise of the president of Turkmenistan. Of course, there are difficulties with the financing of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, as it is necessary to overcome the opposition of Russia. In this case, Europe, represented by the European Commission, is very active. Recently, the EU ambassador handed a letter to Berdymuhammedov on behalf of the European Commission. The letter contains the EU's commitment to support the trans-Caspian pipeline project. The EU's position is as follows: bilateral projects of littoral states do not require a third party's approval. The EU does not take a clear stance on the issue of where the borders of the national sectors are in the Caspian Sea. But the EU has a principled position that bilateral projects in the Caspian Sea do not need approval from the other Caspian states. And it is clearly stated in the letter. The EU leadership also reported that the European Investment Bank may partly finance the trans-Caspian pipeline project and guarantee the loans that private banks may provide for financing the project. This and the next year are a very convenient time for the implementation of major infrastructure projects, because foreign banks have set very low annual interest rates due to the crisis. Therefore, Caspian countries must hasten the construction of the trans-Caspian pipeline. After the crisis, these rates will increase.

- Speaking of the littoral states. In June, P5+1 had fruitless talks with Iran in Moscow. What can the next steps of the West be at a time when Iran is stubbornly refusing to give up its nuclear programme?

- I think that no drastic steps will be undertaken before the US presidential election. The Obama administration is not interested in conducting military operations before the election. But no-one can predict what will happen after the presidential election. In general, the West is conducting a very ineffective policy towards Iran. This policy has no clear purpose. Western policy is to endlessly wait for something to happen. The sanctions against Iran are not justified and even counterproductive. In Iran, there is a national consensus on the issue of uranium enrichment. There is a consensus among all political groups. There is a danger not only of a conflict between Iran and the USA or Iran and Israel. This risk has always existed. The possibility of Iran's neighbours getting involved in military operations is more alarming. The countries neighbouring on Iran should not get caught in the crossfire. And no-one should put pressure on these countries in order to draw them into the West-Iran standoff. In this regard, Azerbaijan is conducting a very balanced policy. Baku complies with the sanctions that were endorsed by the UN Security Council. All other sanctions are not mandatory for Azerbaijan. Baku is interested in maintaining access to Naxcivan, and Iran has been providing electricity to Naxcivan, the two countries maintain trade relations, and northern Iran is populated by Azerbaijanis. It is unclear to experts yet who in Iran is inflaming tensions in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations. It is clear that the Iranian political elite is divided into various factions fighting for power. But nobody knows what political group in Iran is interested in maintaining tensions between Baku and Tehran. Azerbaijan is conducting a decent, competent and relaxed policy in relations with Iran. It is clear that the security services of Azerbaijan control the situation. If there is no military operation against Iran, the situation in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations will remain generally stable.