TWO SHARIFS

Pakistan is in turmoil again. Since mid-August, incessant demonstrations have been going on in that country demanding that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif should step down. 

More than 300 people have been hurt in clashes in Pakistan's big cities. The protesters want Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to resign accusing him of corruption and rigging last year's parliamentary polls. The population is also discontent with social problems, in particular high unemployment and frequent power supply interruptions. 

The protesters are led by Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice) party, and Tahir ul-Qadri, leader of the religious movement Minhaj-ul-Quran (Way of Koran). They have declared the launch of a "civil disobedience movement" urging their supporters not to obey the authorities until the current Cabinet of Ministers resigns. 

The opposition made attempts to seize the government's seat and the headquarters of the state TV and radio company in central Islamabad. However, army units and police commandos ousted the protesters and took bodies of state power under protection. The generals led by Raheel Sharif, chief of staff of Pakistan's land forces, expressed "serious concerns on the existing political crisis and the violent turn it has taken, resulting in large scale injuries and loss of lives". Meanwhile there are grounds to see the army command - traditionally the most influential force in the country - behind the antigovernment protests because they are interested in weakening the positions of the head of government. 

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif became head of the Pakistani government for the third time in June 2013. His first rise to the post took place in 1990 after the removal of the previous head of government, Benazir Bhutto. But in 1993, Nawaz Sharif himself was ousted from the premier's office amid charges of corruption and organizing murders of his political opponents. The premier's removal was cancelled by the Supreme Court but the army did not support that court ruling. 

In 1997, Nawaz Sharif was appointed head of government for the second time but two years later he was ousted again, now by a military coup organized by army commander Pervez Musharraf. Thus the army again displayed its unwillingness to see Sharif at the head of the government. 

Nawaz Sharif spent the next few years as an emigre in Saudi Arabia. On 11 May 2013, parliamentary polls were held in Pakistan resulting in the first peaceful change of government in that country in almost 70 years. The Muslim League of Pakistan led by Nawaz Sharif (he returned to his homeland in 2007) won the election. 

The issue on today's agenda is whether Nawaz Sharif can stay in the premier's office to the end of his tenure or he will have to step down again. This is an important issue especially given the widespread opinion about Nawaz Sharif as a politician who is masterly at coming to power but cannot hold it down. 

However, what is the cause of the complicated mutual relations between Nawaz Sharif and the army command? The answer is obvious: it is the politician's efforts to limit the influence of the military on the sphere of state administration. Nawaz Sharif has approached the establishment of civil control over the domain of security policy. For this purpose, he recently even entered into negotiations with an organization of the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) which had earlier enjoyed financial support from Islamabad but in 2007, after their action against the state of Pakistan, they clashed with the Pakistani army in an armed conflict. Nawaz Sharif's talks with the Taliban stopped after the latter attacked Karachi airport in June. The army instantly launched a combat operation against the Taliban in Vaziristan province, making it clear for Sharif that security is not his prerogative. 

As important a role in deteriorating Nawaz Sharif's relations with the military command was played by a trial initiated by the government against the country's ex-president, retired General Pervez Musharraf on charges of high treason. Although being removed from power, Musharraf still has authority with the military that view encroachments on the general's freedom as a serious blow on the domestic political standing of the army itself. 

Another factor of the army's discontent with Nawaz Sharif's policy is his wish to essentially improve relations with India, Pakistan's long-standing opponent. Suffice it to say that Nawaz Sharif is the first prime minister of Pakistan who attended the inauguration of the Indian head of government during his trip to Delhi last month. 

Taking into account all these contradictions between the generals and the head of government of Pakistan, a number of observers suppose that the opposition leaders, Imran Khan and Tahir ul-Qadri, whose popularity is still lower than Nawaz Sharif's influence, will not venture challenging the government without first getting the go-ahead from the military command. This opinion is supported by the fact that the accusation of rigging last year's election brought against the government was voiced so uncompromisingly and, for some reason, not immediately after the official announcement of the voting results but more than one year after the Nawaz Sharif cabinet came into office. 

The premier definitely has sufficient political resources to survive the current crisis. But his positions will no doubt be weakened. To all appearances, the goal of the military command is this rather than to overthrow the incumbent government. The top brass are aware that a coup may trigger a very serious escalation of internal political confrontation because the premier still has quite a lot of support from the population. However the military see no good in having a civil conflict in Pakistan in a situation of ongoing confrontation with the Taliban. So the antigovernment actions of the past few weeks will hardly lead to any revolutionary changes in Pakistan. It is all the more incorrect to draw parallels between protests in Pakistan and the "revolutions" in a number of Arab states. This is so at least because of the absence in Pakistan of a character so needed for a "revolutionary scenario", such as a long-standing tyrant the deposition of which is the cherished dream of multimillion masses. 

In all likelihood, Pakistan is going to launch a process towards consensus on domestic policy. Nawaz Sharif's meeting with General Raheel Sharif could be regarded as the first step on this path. They were probably discussing terms on which the army would support civil authorities. The military will definitely try to make the premier stop interfering in matters of security which is of special importance for the top brass also because of the pull-out of the international coalition troops from Afghanistan. Indeed, like the entire region, Pakistan may be left face to face with spreading terrorist threat. 

For such a huge country, which remains in the crosshairs of various extremist and terrorist organizations and is going through very acute social troubles, this entire situation puts the task of survival squarely before the Pakistani state. Considering Pakistan's status as a state having nuclear arms, this task is of utter importance for the entire global security.