HOPE FOR PEACE

Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities and the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) signed a protocol on ceasefire in Minsk on 5 September. Taking part in the negotiations were former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, the self-proclaimed DPR's Prime Minister Aleksandr [Oleksandr] Zakharchenko, the self-proclaimed LNR's head Igor [Ihor] Plotnytskyy, Russian Ambassador to Kiev Mikhail Zurabov and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini. The document consists of 12 provisions on supervision over peace observance and exchange of prisoners of war. As Zurabov explained, ceasefire is point one in the document on Ukraine signed in Minsk. The other provisions are to set up a monitoring structure. After issuing his order on ceasefire, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko instructed Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin to ensure jointly with the OSCE an "effective international control over the observance of the ceasefire regime". According to the Ukrainian president, the Minsk accords are based on the peace plan suggested by him. 

It is noteworthy that, shortly before the signing of the Minsk protocol, some media had run reports about attempts to reach agreement in a telephone conversation between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Russian president's press secretary Dmitriy Peskov denied having any accords "because Russia is not a party to the conflict". In addition, while at the EU summit, Poroshenko said that the conflict in Ukraine had come "very close to the point of no return" because of direct involvement of Russian military in hostilities on the side of the separatists. Just a few hours after the disavowed telephone negotiations and one day before the Minsk meeting, Putin had "jotted down" a seven-point "peace plan" right aboard his plane bound for Mongolia. In particular, the Kremlin head suggested ceasing offensive operations on both sides, withdrawing Ukrainian military to a distance ruling out the possibility of shelling populated localities, ensuring unbiased international control over the observance of the ceasefire terms, ruling out the use of combat aircraft against civilians, POW exchange on the "all for all" basis, providing humanitarian corridors for refugees and delivery of cargoes to Donetsk Region and Luhansk Region. Speaking earlier in an interview to the BBC, Vladimir Putin said that the Ukrainian authorities should conduct substantive political dialogue with the Southeast. 

Meanwhile, the LPR's "premier" has told RIA Novosti, the meeting of the contact group in Minsk did not discuss the future status of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. However, the leadership of the LNR and the DPR not only demands an end to the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) but also recognizing a special status for their territories, a status for the Russian language, a status for their armed formations, the right to appoint their prosecutors and judges and a special procedure for foreign economic activity envisaging deeper integration with Russia and the Customs Union. Immediately after signing the truce agreement, Poroshenko promised Donetsk Region and Luhansk Region economic freedoms as well as amnesty and exchange of POWs. 

But will that be enough for the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR? And in general, to what extent are the sides prepared and able to meet the stipulated terms of the truce? In observers' opinion, a lot will now depend on the internal political situation in Kiev. 

Ukraine's parliament has been dissolved, the country is in a pre-election fever and forced to struggle against economic devastation on the threshold of winter. How strong will Poroshenko's political prestige be in Kiev in such circumstances, bearing in mind his promise given at the outset of his tenure as president to sort the separatists out in the Southeast, and now he has to sit down with them at the negotiating table? 

Hostilities in Donbass have intensified after mid-August. To get out of encirclement, Ukrainian forces had to quit a number of populated localities including Luhansk, whereas supporters of the self-proclaimed republics mounted a vigorous offensive in many directions including Mariupol. The EU, the USA and NATO linked the rebels' roaring success to Russia's support although Moscow is flatly denying everything. According to most Western analysts, Russia is acting against rules of international law and breaking all agreements that guarantee stability in the world after the end of the Cold War. 

Against this background, it is no surprise that countries of the West have regrouped their forces to put further pressure on Russia and prepared a new portion of sanctions. The new punitive measures are linked to how long the truce will endure in Ukraine. Their further plan is to hamper Russian state-run companies' access to foreign funding and tighten up the ban on sales to Russia of energy-related and dual purpose technologies. The sanctions will affect big Russian oil companies, which may jeopardize the implementation of Moscow's ambitious projects on the Arctic and Pacific oil shelves. France has also refused to deliver the first Mistral class helicopter carrier to Russia. As Obama promised, Russia will pay a heavy price for its "aggression". British premier David Cameron also said that the sanctions imposed by the Western countries against Russia would "permanently damage" its economy. 

A synchronization of Euro-Atlantic intentions took place at NATO's summit in Wales. The meeting in the Welsh town of Newport was, naturally, held without Russia's participation. The central subject was deployment of new bases in Eastern Europe: setting up rapid reaction forces with a total strength of several thousand personnel in Eastern Europe for protection against likely Russian aggression. Moreover, during his earlier visit to Estonia, the US president had announced that a US naval base would appear in that country. It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian government is discussing plans to cancel the country's non-aligned status and set a course for NATO membership: Kiev is trying to get status as a special partner No 1 and is going to adopt a new doctrine in the nearest future with a clear-cut definition of Russia as an aggressor state.  

Thus, regardless of how effective the Minsk agreement is, the confrontation between Russia and the West is only gathering momentum so far. This is not an ordinary game of national interests anymore where everything is rational and a clear system of trade-offs is in play. The war being waged now is a war where a new move is taken regardless of damage to oneself. German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted in her speech to German parliament that the sanctions would have a negative impact on private business in Germany. Having refused to sell the Mistral, France will now have to pay penalties and forfeits and look for another customer to buy the ship designed to meet Russian requirements. In addition, it is believed that Europe is largely forced to allow itself to be led by the USA. This point of view is mainly voiced by the Russian side but it nonetheless slips out now and then among Western political scientists and bloggers. It is believed that, by insisting on new sanctions against Russia and strengthening NATO, the USA is seeking to give a boost to its defence industry, consolidate its presence in Eastern Europe and weaken the European economy. No need to say how many times and how strongly Russia has been forced to restrain itself for the sake of the general good. 

The situation is such that even a truce cannot guarantee an end to the war. In the best case scenario, Russia and the West will have "cold" contacts, while Russia and Ukraine will be doomed to beat head against the "wall". This is the name given by the Ukrainian government to a project for state border infrastructure development. The land border will have a ditch at least four metres wide and two metres deep complete with optoelectronic surveillance systems, towers and other facilities to block vehicle traffic. For the sea border, it is suggested to install full-scale optoelectronic surveillance. The Russian-Ukrainian border is 2,295 km long. 

Thus we have 2,295 km of total failure of the entire system of international security and international law; 2,295 km of "wall" instead of a world without borders and wars. Let us be honest though: there are a great many of such visible and invisible borders all over the world.