WILL THERE BE A WAR IN THE REGION?

-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has recently paid a visit to the South Caucasus. What has been the geopolitical message of the USA?

- The main purpose of Mrs. Clinton's trip to the South Caucasus region was the situation involving Iran. It should be noted that a G6 meeting with the leaders of Iran is due in Moscow this month. It will discuss very important issues regarding with a view to resolving the Iranian nuclear program. The West is determined to take resolute action towards Iran and, of course, it was necessary to consult with countries neighboring Iran.

At the same time, the USA is closely watching the events taking place in the South Caucasus. And, in particular, the latest aggravation of the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is important for Washington to hold consultations in order to understand the dynamics of possible events.

As for Georgia, the USA is pursuing a policy of maximum support for Tbilisi. An important aspect is Georgia's desire to join NATO. Clinton's visit confirms again that the South Caucasus is part of the US strategic interests, and Washington intends to actively influence the processes that take place here.

- The visit by the US State Secretary was followed by several ceasefire violations on the contact line of the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces. How realistic is a resumption of the Karabakh war?   

- Theoretically, any minor skirmishes could escalate into a full-scale conflict. But I think that the war is not in the interests of conflicting parties. As for Armenia, it is unlikely that Yerevan wants to resume war. Azerbaijan's military budget is equal to the state budget of Armenia. Baku has signed a major contract for the purchase of weapons in Israel. This suggests that Azerbaijan is actively modernizing its national army. The USA is not interested in the resumption of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia either. Because the attention of the White House is focused on the pressure on Iran. And the start of the Karabakh war does not meet US interests.

- Can the United States decide on a military solution to the Iranian issue? Or are the highlight declarations by the Pentagon and the IDF that they are prepared to bomb a nuclear facility in the suburbs of Tehran just part of psychological pressure?

- I think that the USA will continue the policy of economic strangulation of Iran. This policy is designed to cause social and economic upheavals in Iranian society. If economic leverage does not succeed, certain US military action against Iran may be taken. Russia hopes that through its mediation it will be possible to achieve positive results at the Moscow talks. Let me note that the Russian Foreign Ministry has suggested, for example, to weaken the embargo, etc. in response to concessions from Iran. It is impossible to require Iran to implement everything at once. Russia clearly opposes military action against the IRI and supports a peaceful solution to the problem of Tehran's nuclear program.

- If it does come to a military solution of the "Iranian issue", how far will the South Caucasus be involved in these processes?

- Iran fears that Azerbaijan will provide its territory for intelligence or any other activity of the USA and Israel. The point is that the range of the Israeli aircraft is insufficient to take off from Israel, carry out a military operation inside Iran and return. Israeli planes will need refueling. There are not enough air tankers to do that. From this point of view, Azerbaijani airfields are very attractive as intermediate landing fields. Iran fears that Azerbaijan is having some kind of secret negotiations with the United States and Israel and wants to get rid of Russia's Qabala radar station. Tehran believes that the closure of the Qabala radar station will provide Azerbaijan with complete liberty in making political and military decisions against Iran.

- By the way, what results can be expected from the talks on extending the lease of the Qabala radar station?

- I think the talks will end in a failure. The station will be closed and an important link between our states will be lost. It will have a negative impact on Russian-Azerbaijani relations. 

- Almost all the terrorist groups exposed by Azerbaijani security forces in recent years were established in the North Caucasus. Is it likely that Russia would soon solve the problem of terrorism in its southern regions?

- No. The problem of terrorism in the North Caucasus cannot be resolved in several months or years. This is a big problem rooted to the economic situation in the region and social inequalities between the elites and ordinary citizens. Besides, terrorists have very strong positions there. It may take decades to resolve the problem of terrorism in the North Caucasus. But Russia is interested in jointly countering the terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan.