ARMENIA: "FORWARD TO THE PAST"?

The period of "post-election political resetting" is continuing in Armenia. Contrary to expectations, the prime minister was not replaced: the government is once again headed by Tigran Sargsyan. However, the main intrigue is the future political role of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) - the party that the former president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, chose as his political "platform".

On 24 May, the head of Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan, said that the party has no constitutional opportunity to form a government and implement its programmes, and on this basis, the PAP does not intend to participate in the formation of a coalition government.

The Republican Party of Armenia and the Orinats Yerkir Party signed a coalition memorandum on 30 May 2012. It was signed by the leader of the Republican Party, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, and the head of the Orinats Yerkir Party, National Security Council Secretary Artur Bagdasaryan.

Now the Prosperous Armenia Party positions itself as a moderate centrist political party with a liberal slant.

Many observers in Armenia are confident that it was at the insistence of Robert Sedrakovich that the PAP was not included in the ruling coalition. The newspaper 168 Hours says that Robert Kocharyan forbade Prosperous Armenia to enter into a coalition with the Republican Party at the last moment. According to the newspaper, during a tense private meeting with Serzh Sargsyan in Nagornyy Karabakh on 9 May, Kocharyan warned him he would not allow the PAP to enter into a coalition with the RPA.

In an interview with a newspaper correspondent, Armenia's former foreign minister and a member of parliament from the PPA, Vardan Oskanyan, who is considered an ally of Kocharyan, in fact, did not deny this information, grinning in response to the reporter's question.

In any case, so far, Prosperous Armenia, or rather, Robert Kocharyan is building his new political image, seeking to enlist the support of external players. Hraparak newspaper writes that while making the proportional list of Prosperous Armenia, everything was done to include the clearly pro-American figures in it to avoid being considered a pro-Russian force.

"However, neither the pro-Western forces, nor the Americans gave 'the nod' to the implementation of this id?e fixe and tried to retain the PPA. According to our information, both billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili in Georgia and the circle of Gagik Tsarukyan tried to arrange a meeting with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to exert psychological pressure on the country's authorities. However, the US side did not respond and the meeting never took place. Although Tsarukyan, as a "resolute loner" went to the US embassy with representatives of the public sector, human rights activists and political figures for a meeting with the secretary of state, the face-to-face meeting never took place," the publication says.

Nor did Prosperous Armenia become a tough opposition force - at least for now. Moreover, it is possible that a representative of Prosperous Armenia will be appointed to the post of minister of sports and youth affairs, despite the fact that the party is not in the ruling coalition, Yerkir newspaper said.

The publication notes that, contrary to expectations, the party leader Tsarukyan did not resign as president of the National Olympic Committee, because the Republican Party appreciates Tsarukyan's contribution to the development of sports.

It is obvious that for the current president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan is more than a dangerous opponent. He relies on the same "Karabakh clan" as Sargsyan, but unlike the current president, he can count on the Dashnaks' support and through them, on the Armenian diaspora abroad.

Moreover, he has a failsafe slogan "It was better under me", which is actually confirmed by economists' statistical calculations.

There is very little time to the presidential election in Armenia scheduled for 2013. Serzhik Sargsyan's chances of winning this election are like Herbert Hoover's in the midst of the "Great Depression". Armenia's economy is still in distress. Before the parliamentary elections ended, the national currency - the dram - fell here again. After that, prices immediately went up, including the prices of basic products. Over the past two months, the wholesale price of a 50-kg bag of flour of superior quality has increased by over 2,000 drams, Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper says. "In the early spring, such a bag cost about 9,000 drams (about $ 25). For the first time, the price rose in April - by $ 2. According to businessmen, importers did not explain why. In mid-May, the wholesale price of flour increased again, reaching 11,300 drams. Importers explained this by the appreciation of the dollar. What is happening has not affected the price of bread yet, because "old" flour is used, and bread manufacturers are hoping that the previous price will return. If not, then bread producers will be forced to raise prices," the newspaper is confident.

Prices are rising, however, not only for bread. There are clear changes on the commodity markets, the chairman of the State Commission on Protection of Economic Competition, Artak Shaboyan, told News.am.

Among other things, social goods are also becoming expensive. And the issue is usually about imports. But the prices of local products - eggs, meat and dairy products - have not risen significantly yet. But buyers of lentil, wheat barley, peas and rice are scratching their heads. The reason is obvious - the growth of the dollar, which was 385 drams earlier in the year and now stands at 405-406 drams, Novoye Vremya admits reluctantly.

Earlier this week, experts mentioned the sharp rise in the rate of the dollar against the Armenian dram. And now it seems that Armenia is faced with quite predictable socioeconomic consequences. It must be remembered that Upper and Lower Karabakh - rich agricultural land where grains and vegetables can be sown - is under Armenian occupation today. Against this background, "jumps" in the price of bread and flour coupled with exchange rate fluctuations are also an indication that in fact, there is no peaceful peasant population in the occupied territories. Low-income families are being given sunflower oil as humanitarian aid once again.

Against this background, there appeared unexpected information that Prosperous Armenia may nominate not only Kocharyan but former Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan as its candidate for president. This was mentioned in an interview with journalists by the chairman of the Union of Political Scientists of Armenia, Amayak Hovhannisyan, who called the nomination of Kocharyan a "hard" option and the nomination of Oskanyan - a "soft" one.

Vardan Oskanyan hinted at his presidential ambitions as early as 2008, and many connected his quick resignation with this fact - not only and not so much with the UN General Assembly resolution on the situation in the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani lands, a draft of which had been submitted by Azerbaijan.

Playing on the memories of relative prosperity can certainly help Kocharyan to win the election, but whether he will be able to really change the situation in Armenia is, alas, a rhetorical question. For coherent economic changes, there is a need, above all, for political decisions and normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, but Kocharyan had no political will for this in the 10 years of his own presidency. And when a critical situation arose in the talks, as it was in Rambouillet, he could even resort to an "elementary school" trick and hide "at the end of the corridor".

Perhaps, in the current situation, Robert Sedrakovich had better not hold the presidency himself, choosing the role of a "shadow director" and "a powerful figure behind the scenes" and putting the same Oskanyan in the foreground. For Kocharyan, it is almost a win-win situation: he gets influence and glory in the event of success, while responsibility for failure rests with Oskanyan.

But for Armenia, it is a lose-lose option. The authorities in this country are still not ready for long overdue political decisions.