
HIDDEN OBSTACLES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS
What challenges await the international coalition headed by the US in their confrontation with the "Islamic State"?
Author: Natiq Nazimoglu Baku
The situation in the Middle East has worsened significantly with the rise of the radical group the "Islamic State" (usually referred to as ISIS), which has seized large swathes of territory in northern and northwestern Iraq and is threatening to take Baghdad. In an effort to combat this organization, the USAis putting together a new anti-terrorism coalition whose creation was discussed at a recent international conference in Paris.
Participants at the conference in Paris, which brought together representatives from around 30 countries, agreed to provide all possible support to the Iraqi authorities, including military support. They agreed that the Islamic State poses a threat to Iraq and the international community. On the eve of the Paris conference, US President Barack Obama laid out the USA's strategy for fighting ISIS. It envisages, in particular, air strikes on Islamist positions not only in Iraq but also in Syria - a country where radical Islamists have honed their modern warfare skills over the past three years.
Obama said that already more than 40 countries had expressed their readiness to join the international coalition in the fight against ISIS. The USA will lead this "broad coalition".
As the USA and its allies prepare for their new anti-terrorism campaign, there are questions about the likelihood of a ground operation against ISIS on Iraqi territory. In a number of public statements, President Obama has ruled out the possibility of using American ground forces against ISIS. However, there is reason to believe that the White House will go to any lengths to eliminate the radical group, which has resorted to the most brutal methods in an effort to create their "Islamic caliphate".Sources within the military say that the US president has ordered them to be ready for "unforeseen circumstances". In addition, Republicans have called for a ground operation against ISIS and are pressuring both the White House and Congress to back the plan. It is clear, at the very least, that in the near future the USA will strengthen its special forces in northern Iraq under the pretext of providing training to the Iraqi army and Kurdish "peshmerga" forces.
Equally important is the question of what kind of actions the coalition will take on Syrian soil. Washington's plan to strike ISIS positions in Syria has been met with a mixed response from the international community.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking at the Paris conference, said that plans to strike ISIS positions in Syria without consulting Damascus are a cause for concern. According to Lavrov, Russia considers the terrorist threat to be "too serious to be addressed from a position of ideological bias and disrespect of international law". He added that Syria, like Iran, must take part in the fight against ISIS at the same level with other countries as they are "natural allies" in this anti-terrorism campaign.
The USA's desire to expand the scope of its operations against ISIS through Syrian territory can only give rise to the speculation that Washington might use the fight against the terrorists, who are vying for power in Iraq and aspire to seize control of neighboring countries, as a means for fulfilling its own geopolitical objectives. These objectives, as is well known, relate to the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as well as other issues aimed at consolidating the USA's leading role in the Middle East and in world politics.
Meanwhile, the launch of the next anti-terrorism campaign signals the beginning of anothergame of intrigue in the Middle East - will the USA and Iran cooperate with one another in the name of fighting against their common enemy, ISIS? Currently, the differences between the two countries are too great to allow for real rapprochement, which if accomplished, could form the basis of a formidable barrier to the expanding influence of radical Islamists in the region.
US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that cooperation with Iran at this moment is unacceptable. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also made it clear that cooperation with Washington in fighting ISIS was impossible as long as the USA had "dirty hands". The Iranian leader was without a doubt referring to the fact that Syria - a key ally of Iran -descended into bloody chaos largely because the USA and the West have actually assisted extremists from ISIS and similar terrorist groups in attacking Syrian pro-government forces.
It is worth noting Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's statement that "Frankenstein has come to haunt his creators". Zarif blamed Western countries for creating the "dangerous phenomenon" that is ISIS.
Another hurdle to forming a broad coalition against ISIS is Turkey's position. It was decided at a meeting chaired by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu that his country would not take part in ground or any other military operations against ISIS in Iraq. This decision must have disappointed Washington, which had hoped to use the Turkish air base in Incirlik to launch air strikes on ISIS. Ankara's decision stipulates that the air base can only be used for the delivery of humanitarian aid to northern Iraq.
There are many reasons behind Turkey's decision to distance itself from direct involvement in the new US-led military campaign. First, it should be noted that Turkey is reluctant to be a part of process that would see the strengthening of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, which is an inevitable outcome of a military operation to eradicate ISIS. In addition, Ankara's obstinacy is in line with a recent cooling of relations with Washington, which began when the USA, despite Turkey's request, refused to directly (though not indirectly) overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
However, Turkey does not intend to withdraw fully from the new military campaign in the Middle East. Turkey has expressed its readiness to assist Washington's coalition with intelligence and logistical support. It is worth noting that Spain, which has agreed to join the coalition against ISIS, has announced that it will deploy American Patriot anti-aircraft missiles on Turkish territory. Spanish Defense Minister Pedro Morenes said that the deployment of the Patriot missiles in Turkey was aimed at preventing possible air strikes and the shelling of Turkish settlements from Iraq or Syria.
Thus, there are many hidden obstacles to the launching of the international coalition's military campaign against the Islamic State. Will it be possible, despite the presence of these obstacles, to draw nearer to the eradication of international terrorism or will the fight against this scourge continue to be held hostage to the geopolitical interests of the world's power centers?The course and outcomes of the operation against ISIS will show for itself.
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