THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR IS GREAT

- The Karabakh conflict zone in early August saw a series of armed incidents, the most serious during the entire armistice, which led to casualties on both sides. Given the lack of progress in the peace talks, how serious do you think the situation is?

- The situation around the Azerbaijani lands captured by Armenia is very serious. Armenia will never give up voluntarily a single square metre of the conquered territory, in which its soldiers were killed. There will be no progress in the handover of the conquered territories to Azerbaijan on the basis of peace talks. Armenia is using the peace negotiations for consolidating the status quo and keeping it for as long as possible, or best of all - forever. How about the European Union? It is interested in energy security and in oil and gas coming to its territory without hindrance, not in the liberation of Azerbaijani lands.

- What is the likelihood of local clashes escalating into a full-scale war?

- The likelihood of war (not necessarily a full-scale one - it is enough to start quickly to take one of your own regions) is great and increasing: the Azerbaijani leadership is convinced, I believe, that the peace talks are not leading to the liberation of the lands occupied by the neighbouring state and cannot lead to it. The current international situation (the events in Ukraine, the Middle East, northern Iraq, North Africa and other regions) is favourable for a military, decisive and rapid liberation of one of the districts of your own territory.

- Should a new war occur in Karabakh to make the West pay attention to the conflict, as they are doing in the case of Ukraine?

- The role of the conflict over Ukraine, on the one hand, and the conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh and the Azerbaijani lands occupied by Armenia in global politics cannot be compared. Powerful forces - NATO and the United States - are interested in distancing Ukraine from Russia and setting Ukraine and Russia against each other. I am not talking about the European Union: it totally supports the United States on the issue. And that is happening in many EU countries even despite the interests of their own people!

- It seems that Russia has taken up the role of the "fiddle" in the conflict, while Western mediators (USA and France), as usual, are standing aside. Should Baku raise the issue of changing the format of mediators or is Russia really the only external player that has interests in the South Caucasus?

- There is no hope on the mediators: they pursue their own interests. What you need to find is not new mediators, but reliable, strong and resolute allies willing to do business. Not only Russia, but Turkey, which is also growing in its power, internal solidarity and consistent determination, as well as Iran, which is far from fully disclosing its international potential, have their vital interests in the South Caucasus. Finally, the EU, although without Turkey it will never be a reliable partner of Azerbaijan, no matter how useful the latter is for Europe.

- Azerbaijan is increasing not only its military potential, but also diplomatic efforts to return the occupied lands. What do you think needs to be done for real progress in resolving the issue?

- Diplomatic efforts, which are needed in any case, and military potential can be increased infinitely, but the Azerbaijani lands will not be liberated because of that. You must resort, if it is vital, to the liberation of the lands by force. Then Europe will make a move.

- According to one of the areas of interaction in the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Georgia format, the Azerbaijani, Turkish and Georgian armies will give an immediate appropriate response to any action constituting a threat to the operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad. Does this mean that external threats are real? And how effective can trilateral cooperation be in addressing these threats?

- These threats are real and in the event of an armed conflict, they can be implemented by Armenian militants. This fact and the Russian military base in Gyumri constrain the military liberation by Azerbaijan of its native lands. This restraint is due to the fact that it is difficult to combine the interest in maintaining stable income from the operation of pipelines with the interest in the immediate liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands.

So it turns out that Russia, USA, Britain and France can fight on foreign soil, but Azerbaijan cannot do so in its own land. You can call me, as some already do, a "warmonger", but sometimes it is impossible to do without it.