EVIL CHANGES IMAGE

The organization of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) renamed Islamic State (IS) has threatened to commit terrorist acts against the UK and France. At the same time, seizing ever more Iraqi territory, the IS army has come up to the Turkish border. Sympathizing fundamentalists in Algeria, Egypt and other Arab states have declared their support to IS militants. According to tentative estimates, IS views are shared by hundreds of various terrorist groups in the Middle East. Below is an exclusive interview with Muhammad Adil, an Arab political scientist and observer of the newspapers Al-Arabiya and Al Ahrar, telling R+ readers about attitudes to the IS in the Arab world.

- There are several theories explaining whose project IS is. They name the USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Israel, BAAS party veterans and even the Russian Federation. What does the Arab world think about it?

- To find out who established ISIL, it is necessary to answer the question: who benefits from this organization's activity? Notably, when IS appeared on the scene, al-Qa'eda practically vanished out of sight. It looks like someone ordered al-Qa'eda to give its place to Islamic State.

It should be said that very influential geopolitical centres are not interested now in establishing a democratic government trusted by the people in Syria. Because any democratic government in Syria will be a threat to Israel's security. By destabilizing the situation in Syria and Iraq, IS is actually strengthening Israel's positions. At the same time, the very existence of IS serves as a means of pressure on the rich Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others. I would rather not specify any countries but the more IS destabilizes the situation in the Middle East, the more opportunities external forces have for interference or invasion in the region. One could ask the question: why the appearance of IS in Iraq brought about the establishment of an international coalition of Western and Arab states whereas no coalition had been set up during the Gaza conflict which was no less bloody?

- Who needed to set up IS and what for?

- IS was needed for solving certain tasks in combat against the Syrian government. But some time later, IS began to play its own game. That organization became independent and it is not controlled by the US. This is why the coalition was set up. IS has no strategy or intellectual leaders. They see their goal in establishing an Islamic caliphate. They have their war resources in poor, unemployed and uneducated Islamic youth from Arab states, Central Asia and some European countries. Their fighting tactic is jihad. They cannot articulately explain what kind of an Islamic state they want to build. Unlike al-Qa'eda, which fought against its specific enemy, the USA and other Western states, the IS is fighting for territories. The interests of this organization's sponsors and IS militants may coincide in some matters and clash in others. IS very aptly took advantage of instability in Syria and Iraq. Considering all these factors, I don't think that the IS can achieve the goal declared by the leaders of this organization.

- IS claims uniting all Arab states in a new Caliphate. IS militants are so far resisted by Shias and Kurds. What will happen if IS invades Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states?

- The Sunnis of Iraq, Syria and Turkey are also fighting against IS militants. In the Sunnis' opinion, this organization's activity looks like ordinary banditry. I don't think IS will have enough power to invade Jordan's territory. The thing is that not a single state in the Middle East supports the jihadists. Whatever they are doing in occupied territories - persecution of Christians and Kurds, executions, intolerance and others - those things are in conflict with the religion of Islam. Their cruelty towards civilians and rashness harm the image of Islam.

I think that IS will quit the political stage like al-Qa'eda did as a result of the international coalition's antiterrorist operation. But other terrorist organizations will come to take their place in order to keep the Middle East region in a state of instability.

- According to data from the media, IS commanders have made a statement about their plans to respond to the coalition's attacks with terrorist acts in the UK and France. British and French people remember the killing of a policeman and a group of Jews committed by local Islamists as an act of revenge. Can such external threats make Europeans resort to a massive deportation of Muslims from the UK, France, the Netherlands and other states?

- European countries repeatedly witnessed persecutions of Muslims in the recent past, for instance, after al-Qa'eda's railway attack in England in 2005. Such persecutions happened and will happen. In contrast to al-Qa'eda, which acted as a secret organization, like mafia, IS acts openly. As of today, IS poses threat not only to countries of the West but also to the entire Islamic world. Experience of combat against al-Qa'eda suggests that IS activity will stop under airstrikes from the USA and its allies. However, terrorism will remain an open problem in the region. To settle this problem, it is necessary to establish stable peace in the region, form a democratic government in Syria and restore the independence of Iraq.