THE MAIN THING IS TO ESCAPE IN TIME

It does not often happen that during the process of settling conflicts between two countries an international organization, in avoiding diplomatic egalitarianism and confusing wording, calls things by their proper names. The result is that sometimes a pleasant atmosphere emerges for those who love to fish in troubled waters. Evidently, therefore, NATO's unambiguous statement of support for the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova touched the nerves of official Yerevan. In a final declaration adopted at the summit in Chicago towards the end of May, the North Atlantic alliance urged the sides in their protracted conflicts to avoid steps that might undermine security and stability. "We remain committed to supporting the territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova and will continue to support efforts towards a peaceful settlement of regional conflicts based on these principles and the norms of international law, the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act," paragraph 47 of the declaration states.

And although the Armenian leadership saw nothing unusual in the recognition of Armenia's territorial integrity, for obvious reasons Yerevan considered this paragraph of the NATO declaration unacceptable. And for this reason Armenia's leader Serzh Sargsyan refused to go to Chicago. "The draft resolution includes superficial wording regarding the question of solving conflicts in the Southern Caucasus and Moldova which, despite certain changes compared with the Lisbon Resolution, conflicts with the approaches of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, who have an international mandate to settle the Karabakh problem," Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan said, explaining Yerevan's position.

"This may not only harm the negotiation process on settling the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict but also threaten to create a delicate situation in the region, especially against the background of Azerbaijan's unprecedented increase in military spending and the bellicose rhetoric of that country's leaders," Nalbandyan said, quoted by Interfax.

Meanwhile, Armenian experts are drawing attention to the fact that NATO for the second time includes this paragraph in its final declaration. The same thing happened before at the summit in Lisbon which, incidentally, Sargsyan also declined to visit. As Tatul Akopyan, an expert of the "Sivilitas" foundation, points out, "if Armenia follows this logic" Sargsyan should not visit other countries which also recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan also criticized his former colleagues in power. "I would not have seen any problem in this had not the basis for the president's non-participation in the summit been what it was - the draft declaration of the NATO summit includes a general formulation of a solution to conflicts in the Southern Caucasus and Moldova that conflicts with the statements and decisions for a settlement to the Karabakh conflict adopted within the framework of the OSCE," Oskanyan said, stressing that the reason for the refusal to go to Chicago was nothing more than a "defeatist position" and a "short cut to self-isolation". 

It will be recalled that this is not the first time one has come across such behaviour in Armenian diplomacy. When Oskanyan was foreign minister, the then Armenian President Robert Kocharyan left Rambouillet Castle in Paris, cutting short talks with Azerbajani President Ilham Aliyev. At first it was reported that Kocharyan asked to leave and failed to return. Then it transpired that the Armenian leader did not have to "leave", but to escape. The official reason was the death of a relative of the then Armenian Defence Minister and now President Serzh Sargsyan: some reason for cutting short talks on a settlement to the conflict.

As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, by virtue of their strategic interests Azerbaijan and the North Atlantic alliance have a vested interest in developing cooperation. Azerbaijan is attractive to NATO because of its favourable geo-political situation, its leading positions in the Southern Caucasus and its role in ensuring Europe's energy security, as well as its active participation in the international anti-terrorist coalition. While demonstrating its openness to a political dialogue, Baku is at the same time not intrusive in its desire to integrate into the Euro-Atlantic space.

The fact that Baku is a self-sufficient partner for NATO that is resistant to global economic turmoil is also of some importance. As Interfax reports, the international ratings of Moody's Investors Service notes Azerbaijan's high level of financial strength. This appraisal is quoted in the agency's annual credit report for Azerbaijan. The agency says the high level of Azerbaijan's financial strength is down to the considerable supplies of foreign assets and the strong balance of the government, which is characterized by a very low debt burden and a very favourable interest rate of 1.1%. "Azerbaijan also has a favourable debt structure," the report says.

The situation in Armenia is precisely the opposite. Only in 2015 does Yerevan plan to reduce its foreign state debt to 33.9% of GDP compared with 36.6% this year. And these are just the official figures. According to the calculations of the International Monetary Fund, the ratio of Armenia's state debt to GDP by the end of 2012 will be about 42%. And in 2012 Armenia will need additional credits to finance the budget deficit and repay its debts. Thus, a country that is wholly and completely dependent on sacrifices from its diaspora (however strong they may be) and credits from Russia and Iran, on top of that is avoiding a constructive political dialogue, more and more showing itself to be a weak link in international relations. As a result, even in Russia, Armenia's traditional ally, calls to ditch its Armenian ballast are being heard more and more frequently.