CHINESE MAIDAN

It seems that Hong Kong, too, has decided to stage a revolution - at least footage from the streets of Hong Kong is very similar to what we have seen in many other parts of the world. Georgian roses, Kyrgyz tulips, Ukrainian orange scarves, all kinds of colours of Arab Spring and now yellow Chinese umbrellas.

Hong Kong residents initially used umbrellas to defend themselves from the sun and pepper gas, which is used by the police to break up the demonstrations, but very soon, this practical and romantic attribute turned into a real symbol of protest. Those who are sympathetic to Hong Kong demonstrators now put photos of umbrellas and yellow ribbons on their pages on Facebook and Instagram. Supporters of the authorities and the police, by the way, post blue ribbons. Society is divided, and this is the main feature of modern revolutions, which are constantly reproduced and throw their supporters and opponents in the maelstrom of civil war or something very similar to it. However, Hong Kong still stands out, and to a great extent - after all, it's one of the financial centres of the world.

Now Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China - the city was handed over to China in 1997 after it became a British colony in 1842 as a result of a series of so-called "Opium Wars" and turned from a fishing village into a huge metropolis, a financial giant and the world's major port. The territory was granted broad autonomy until 2047 under the formula of "one country - two systems", which means certain independence from Beijing - control over the legal and financial systems, taxation, immigration policy, representation in international organizations and events, guarantees for the free development of business, as well as the right to protest. The PRC government reserved the privilege to decide on matters of defence and foreign policy.

As a British colony, 7m-strong Hong Kong was quite satisfied with the governor, who was appointed by the Queen of England. After returning to the bosom of China, Hong Kong began to be governed by the chief executive of the Hong Kong administration. The essence of the current protests is that the 2017 election of the head of the local administration should be held not through an electoral college, but in a direct and universal vote. Hongkongers do not like the fact that Beijing is going to restrict the elections to only three candidates and monitor the process of nominations. In early summer, during an online referendum, which involved about 800,000 people, activists reiterated their demands, although China did not recognize this kind of people's will.

Then Hong Kong residents took to the streets, stretching almost for four kilometers and taking over business districts in the city centre and tourist districts. Threats to storm government buildings are becoming louder and louder - however, the government complex in the central Admiralty district is almost paralyzed anyway. Protesters are calling for the resignation of the head of the city administration, Liang Zhenying. According to foreign media reports, many people had never participated in the protests before and took to the streets because they heard about the use of force by police officers. To disperse the crowd, the police used tear gas and rubber bullets, several people were injured, a few dozen people have been arrested. Among those behind bars is 17-year-old Joshua Wong. The boy, who debuted as the leader of street rallies a few years ago, already has successful experience in opposing the authorities and is very determined for his age: "I do not want to transfer the struggle for democracy to the next generation. It is our responsibility!" It is reported that the protests were organized by the Hong Kong Federation of Students, as well as the Occupy Central movement. During the campaign, young people are showing remarkable sharpness - for example, they are using the FireChat messenger, which can work without connecting to the Internet and without cellular communications.

One of the leaders of the protesters, Benny Tai, an associate law professor at the University of Hong Kong, noted in an interview with Foreign Policy that the demonstrations "exceeded what he had imagined". According to Tai, the social movement, which became the impetus for the political awakening of the whole city, can no longer be curbed by the organizers. The only ones who retain control are people who are in power and are able to meet the demands for democracy.

As we wrote this article, Beijing's reaction was rather vague. Of course, Beijing called on the international community not to support the "illegal protests", and the Chinese Foreign Ministry noted the admissibility of any kind of interference in the internal affairs of the country. The head of the local administration, Liang Zhenying, made it clear that he is not going to leave his post and called on protesters to "immediately" end the protests. In the early days, China's central authorities tried to contain the situation by turning off the Internet, but it is clear that it does not help - the protesters still find ways to communicate, while footage from the streets of Hong Kong regularly makes headlines in the world's leading news agencies.

Beijing is concerned that the protests will spread to other parts of mainland China. If the government makes concessions, it may become a precedent in the eyes of other people in China. But will the Chinese leaders take tough measures? The 1989 events in Tiananmen Square, also known as the "4 June events", are still fresh in memory. Then the main participants in the demonstrations were also students - the government dispersed the protesters using army units, which resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people.

But now the situation is totally different - the financial status of Hong Kong is at the same time its safeguard in the eyes of Beijing. On the one hand of the scales is political stability, and on the other - financial stability. But it is the stability of not only China, and from this point of view, Chinese officials have likely come under serious international pressure. Incidentally, the negative effect will manifest itself not only if the protests are violently dispersed, but also if the Hong Kong Maydan lasts for several months.

"The United States supports maximum autonomy for Hong Kong. We support the overall empowerment of Hong Kong in accordance with the basic law. We support the hopes of the people of Hong Kong. The legitimacy of the head of the (Hong Kong) administration will be strengthened if the elections give the people of Hong Kong a real choice between different candidates," said a spokesman for the US president, Josh Earnest. The chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Robert Menendez, accused Beijing and in particular, Liang Zhenying of "breaking the promises made to the people of Hong Kong". London urged Beijing to allow Hong Kong to defend its rights under the law. The Hong Kong protesters were supported by the president of Taiwan, Ma Ying-jeou.

Of course, what is happening in China could not remain aloof from other geopolitical events in the world. Western media immediately pointed out that in Russia they call the "Hong Kong Maydan" a punishment for China by the United States for refusing to back sanctions against Russia. The Wall Street Journal writes that, according to Russian journalists, the leaders of the Hong Kong protest movement Occupy Central were trained by the United States intelligence agencies through the Hong Kong-America Centre, and the sponsors of the Hong Kong Maydan are linked to Paul Wolfowitz, the author of the famous doctrine that calls for the United States to take any actions to maintain the status of "the only superpower". Specifically, he is ostensibly connected with the Hong Kong businessman and media mogul, Jimmy Lai, who sponsors the opposition. The Russian media quote their Chinese colleagues and write that the head of the centre for Hong Kong-American friendship - a certain Morton Holbrook - is a spy with 30 years of experience. It is reported that protesting groups of young people were equipped with protective masks, goggles and raincoats in advance. Many bloggers and even politicians express solidarity with journalists. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal stressed that the Chinese government did not openly accuse the United States.

Can the events in Hong Kong be seen in the context of pressure on China? Observers point out that relatively recently terrorist attacks claimed dozens of people in the volatile and separatist part of China, where there were large riots previously - the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Recently, tensions have been growing between China and Japan over several islands in the East China Sea, although it is unlikely that the two states will decide on a serious escalation. And suddenly US Deputy Defence Secretary Bob Work, speaking at the American Council on Foreign Relations, said that since China and Russia have set out to revise the international order established after World War II, they must understand that the United States can respond to this with military measures...

Against this background, it is not easy to answer the question of why Hong Kong protests erupted at a time when there is still plenty of time until 2017. What are the Hongkongers so afraid of? The fact remains - Hongkongers do not really like the mainland Chinese and are even more afraid of their mass migration to their post-colonial economic paradise. They are afraid that Hong Kong might turn into an ordinary Chinese city. But these fears will still not save them from the answer to the question: Is Hong Kong, after all, on its own or with China? According to many observers, the protests will end in a victory for the authorities, but it will be formal and temporary, because the seed of protest has already taken root and a whole new generation is growing up, who are fundamentally different from those who demonstrated on Tiananmen Square in 1989. Mass protests have taken place in Hong Kong before. But not only Hong Kong's own prosperity and stability in China, but also whether the international community will get another hot spot depend on how Hong Kong will respond to its own questions. And here the true causes of the Hong Kong unrest will probably manifest themselves - whether or not they are based on pure dissatisfaction with the mechanism of elections (after all, in the same United States, the president is also elected by an electoral college) or elections are just a trigger for much more underlying events.