CALM ON THE CASPIAN

- In Astrakhan the heads of the Caspian-bordering states signed a political declaration which everyone is calling a breakthrough on the question of the Caspian's legal status. What do you have to say about the results of the summit?

- A final agreement on the Caspian's legal status will be concluded later, when a number of other issues are resolved. It is a good sign that concrete points were laid out - the extent of coastal waters, which will receive the status of national territory, a neutral zone has been designated, and so on. Even if this is now defined by the agreement of the heads of state only on a political, and not on a legal, level. In other words, at this summit the presidents rejected alternatives such as federal or other principles for partitioning the Caspian. The issue with Iran's position has also been resolved. The principle guiding the determination of the Caspian's future status has been chosen at the summit.

- Will the Astrakhan agreement create guarantees for the safe exploitation of hydrocarbon deposits on the Caspian shelf? In thepastthe Islamic Republic of Iranand Turkmenistan have tried to dispute Azerbaijan's oil and gas deposits in the Caspian…

- In regards to deposits within the 15-mile zonetherearenolegal issues. Thiszoneisa posteriorithe sovereign territory of the Caspian-bordering states, who have the right to exploit deposits the way they see fit. Asfordepositsoutside this territory, the good will shown by the heads of the five states in Astrakhan gives reason to believe that the parties will seek compromises. For instance,joint exploitation ofdeposits. The Astrakhan agreement will create a basis for solving conflict by compromise.

- What effect will the agreement have on maritime navigation and shipping on the Caspian?

- Ithink that navigation will be greatly simplified. The majority of the maritime zone will be neutral.With a sector-based partition, Kazakhstan's border with Iran would have gone through the Azerbaijani or Turkmen sector. And that would creat eanentirely different navigations cheme, with newagreementsandneedlesscomplicationshaving resulted.Common access to the Caspian's surface makes navigation, direct lines of communication, and international trade relations simpler.

- Will there still be militarization of the Caspian after the Astrakhan meeting?

- The agreements reached give us reason to believe that after the signing of a final agreement the militarization of the Caspian will stop. The fact of the matter is that, from a military point of view, the Russian armed forces have the advantage on the Caspian.Under the Collective Security Treatythe Russian Federation is the guarantor of Kazakhstan's security on the Caspian. Russia has an interest in keeping the Caspian's aquatic territory unmilitarized.Possessing a large coastline on the Caspian, the Russian Federation looks at the region as an internal body of water. Russia built up its military power on the Caspian due to the region's uncertain status. Now the parties have agreed to the neutral status of the common maritime area, thereby removing the issue of increased military presence. And it is very important that, as in the Baku Declaration, the parties in Astrakhan came to the common view that only states bordering the Caspian have a right to a military presence on the Caspian.

- In light of the Astrakhan agreements, what are the prospects for a project like the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline?

- As we all know, the Russian Federation and Iran are against the execution of this projectas a competition issue, but there is always the possibility of coming to an agreement. Turkmenistan is now selling most of its gas to China, and there is an opening for increased exports there. Kazakhstan has no real need for increased transit across the Caspian.Azerbaijan has an interest in the development of transit for Kazakh oil and Turkmen gas. Here the rearevario us possibilities. For instance, the Russian Federation may offer Azerbaijan more profitable transit conditions. Some concessions on the part of the Russian Federation in other areas are also possible.