UNFINISHED GAME

The tenth presidential election in the Fifth Republic is taking place at a moment that is very important not only for the history of France itself, but also for the whole of Europe. Given Paris' clout in European politics, it is clear that these elections will certainly affect the overall situation in the European Union, which is now going through tough times of crisis. Hence, the most mixed expectations in connection with the possible arrival at the Elysee Palace of Socialist leader Francois Hollande, who became the winner of the first round of voting.

"I am a candidate from all the French people who want our common interest to prevail over privileges"

The French presidential candidate from the Socialist Party, Francois Hollande, gained 28.63 per cent of the vote during the first round of voting. Second place went to the current head of state, leader of the Gaullist party - the Union for a Popular Movement, Nicolas Sarkozy (27.18 per cent of voters). They are followed by Marine Le Pen from the ultra-right National Front (17.9 per cent), Jean-Luc Melenchon from the Left Front (11.11 per cent), and Francois Bayrou from the centrist Democratic Movement - 9.13 per cent. Outsiders of the election are the environmentalist Eva Joly (2 per cent), independent Gaullist candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (1.97 per cent), the leader of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, mechanic worker Philippe Poutou (1.3 per cent), Nathalie Arthaud from the Trotskyist party Workers' Struggle (0.66 per cent) and essayist Jacques Cheminade (0.26 per cent).

So, Francois Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy, who was 1.5 per cent behind him in the first round, are in the second round of the elections scheduled for 6 May. Thus, for the first time since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, the incumbent president goes to the second round as a runner-up. But this is not the main thing. For the first time in the last 20 years, a Socialist politician has a chance to occupy the Elysee Palace.

"I can become the new president of the republic, who will be able to ensure the transfer of power from the right to the left and return hope for a prosperous life to the French people. I am a candidate from all the French people who aspire to a model republic. I am a candidate from all the French people who want the common interest to prevail over privileges," Hollande said.

In the full spirit of his leftist ideology, the leader of the Socialist Party promises to reform education, health and taxation, as well as to withdraw French troops from Afghanistan. As a campaign slogan, he uses the slogan "Change is now". In an effort to underline his difference from the current president, Hollande has suggested reducing the salaries of the president and cabinet members by 30 per cent.

"Some people love money, but I am more interested in people," Hollande says without mentioning, however, Sarkozy's name, which is no accident. Hollande insists that he confronts not a particular person, but a powerful force that hinders the establishment of justice and prosperity in France. "My main adversary has no name, face or party," Hollande says. "He does not represent anyone, and yet he rules. My opponent is the financial world."

The Socialist leader promises that if he wins the presidential election, he will oblige the French banks in a legislative way to split lending and investment (the so-called "speculating operations"), which, according to Hollande, will reduce the risk of a new financial crisis. The measures proposed by Hollande within France go beyond the country itself. For Hollande's bet, in fact, is even higher - to reverse the fight against the crisis, which is now taking place in line with the so-called "budget pact" inspired by the current French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The "budget pact" is a plan to tighten fiscal discipline in countries using the common currency within the eurozone. Its implementation is advocated not only by France and Germany, but also other leading economies of Europe - Great Britain, Italy and Spain. This explains the unprecedented fact that the leaders of these countries openly supported one of the candidates for the French presidency - Nicolas Sarkozy. And Angela Merkel, to this end, even personally came to Paris. The leading powers of Europe are afraid to change the policy that is believed to have no alternative in the EU, and in order to prevent such developments, they are even willing to spoil relations with the possible future leader of the Fifth Republic, who may be Francois Hollande.

Instead of the budget pact, the leader of the French Socialists is in favour of overcoming the debt and financial crisis in the EU by putting an end to the austerity measures imposed primarily by Germany. Hollande, in his own words, offers Europe not fiscal terror, but stimulation of economic growth.

Of course, we can assume that if Francois Hollande wins the election and arrives at the Elysee Palace, he will change his anti-crisis approach under the influence of the circumstances of real policy, especially as France is too heavily dependent on the European situation, which, in turn, is determined largely by the dialogue between Paris and Berlin. Perhaps, Hollande believes that the practical realization of left-wing views on the European scene will shake the situation not only in Europe as a whole, but in France itself. If it can threaten to avert integration processes in the continent, it threatens France with systemic shocks. So Hollande deemed it best to get away only with cosmetic reforms that do not affect the foundations of the existing system, that is, he will do what left-wing forces have done many times when they come to power in capitalist countries.

Of course, all this is possible. However, a specific evaluation of the situation requires exit from the sphere of mere hypotheses. In this perspective, it is clear that Francois Hollande needs the support of the all the left forces in France for the final victory in the elections. So he is using the time remaining before the second round of voting for consolidating his position as the leader of the social movement. It is already producing results. The leader of the Left Front, Jean-Luc Melenchon, and "green" candidate Eva Joly announced their intention to back Francois Hollande in the second round.

"I say to the voters of the National Front: I heard you"

Meanwhile, the current president is not going to give up. Clearly, the significant drop in Nicolas Sarkozy's rating and his second place in the first round of the elections was due to rising unemployment and deteriorating living standards (signs of crisis not only in France but throughout Europe, and it is no accident that in European countries where elections have taken place in recent years, the existing governments suffered a defeat). Paris' unpopular backing of Washington's foreign policy under Sarkozy, which is proved by France's return to the military organization of NATO, also played a role here. However, in the second round, Sarkozy will use the nationalist trump card, which is why he appeals for support from the right-wing camp. For this reason, he always insists on the need to contain immigration and control the borders of France, and does not even rule out the country's withdrawal from the Schengen zone.

The purpose of Sarkozy's recent statements is to get the votes of those who supported the National Front leader Marine Le Pen in the first round. Will the ultra-rightists back Nicolas Sarkozy? This question, apparently, will become the main intrigue of the voting scheduled for 6 May.

For the time being, it is not clear whether the candidate from the Elysee Palace will be able to benefit from nationalist votes? In any case, the head of Marine Le Pen's campaign headquarters, Florian Philippot, said immediately after the first round that for the National Front, it is not possible to choose between Sarkozy and Hollande. However, at the last minute Le Pen and her supporters can make an overture to the incumbent president with the sole aim of preventing the left from coming to power as the ultra-rightists consider them to be their sworn enemies. In fact, this is what Sarkozy counts on.

It's amazing - in the run-up to the first round, the current president, hoping to win over the National Front's electorate, accused this party of destructiveness and even tried to outlaw it. And now he says: "The voters of the National Front must be respected. They voted for their views. It is the voice of suffering and the voice of the crisis." And attacking his main rival, Sarkozy exclaims: "I heard that Mr Hollande expressed reproaches against them (supporters of the National Front), while he himself is ready to talk with Mr Melenchon who states: If you see a rich man in the street, clean his pockets out! And what - is it good? Is it normal? Is it the republican way? And those who suffer have no right to express their dissatisfaction? I speak to the National Front voters: I heard you."

A simple calculation shows that if Marine Le Pen's party votes for Sarkozy, he will gain about 46 per cent of the vote. In addition, if he is backed by some supporters of the centrist Francois Bayrou, Sarkozy may then emerge as the winner from the race. With this in mind, one of the prominent Gaullist figures Prime Minister Alain Juppe says: "The game has not been played yet."

"The Battle of France is just beginning"

The success of the National Front, whose leader took third place in the first round of the elections, should be considered one of the main surprises of the election. The French nationalists showed the highest results in their history, and it is certainly the merit of Marine Le Pen herself. She even got more votes than her father, the founder of the National Front, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2002 when he made it into the second round of the presidential elections. This is primarily due to the growth of French fears for the fate of their country at a time when immigration, especially from Africa and the Muslim world, threatens to lead to serious ethno-demographic changes that are unfavourable for the French. Promising to stop the uncontrolled immigration and preserve the identity of France, Le Pen responds to the expectations of many of his countrymen. In addition, she is the new face of French politics, and people tired of the constant change of Gaullists and Socialists at the helm of the country and, by and large, of the unchanged strategic course (no matter if the country is governed by the left or by the right) see Marine Le Pen as a kind of outlet.

For this reason, we should not take as a joke the following statement by Le Pen from her appeal "to all the true patriots of France": "The battle for the country is just beginning. Whatever happens in the next two weeks, nothing will be the same again. We were able to undermine the monopoly of the financiers and multiculturalists. The National Front was and remains the only truly free party."

So, an interesting time awaits France not only for the period of the elections, but also in the coming years, which will involve a struggle between political forces - right, left, and not only - in the context of the economic crisis and the worsening conflict between civilizations. The outcome of this struggle will undoubtedly have an impact on the entire European integration process, of which France has traditionally been one of the inspirers and engines.