CLOUDS PILING UP OVER IRAN,

Since the start of 2012, the already tense situation surrounding Iran's nuclear program has been rapidly deteriorating. Tehran insists on its right to conduct further research and industrial work in this area. It has been announced that Iran has started the 20-per-cent enrichment of uranium allegedly for use in a research reactor for the needs of medicine. According to the general-director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Yukiya Amano, Iran has tripled its monthly production of enriched uranium. He also noted the lack of progress in the two rounds of discussions with Tehran held this year. "The agency is still concerned about a possible military orientation of Iran's nuclear program. Tehran has failed to provide credible assurances of the absence of unaccounted for nuclear material in the country and of the fact that Iranian physicists are not working on nuclear development of which the IAEA is not informed," the general director of the agency said and added that Tehran has not yet substantively responded to the questions regarding its nuclear program.

The influential German newspaper Die Welt has published an article in which analyst and former civil servant Hans R?hle argues that international efforts to neutralize Iran's nuclear program have failed. According to the newspaper, Tehran allegedly tested a nuclear device in North Korea, while Iranian nuclear scientists are closer than ever to the creation of a nuclear bomb. But American intelligence agencies maintain that Iran does not have and will not be able to acquire a nuclear weapon any time soon. It is assumed that Tehran is seeking to come to a distance of one step to acquiring the opportunity to make a nuclear weapon, but will not pass the "red line". But even this theory regarding the Iranian nuclear program combined with open threats against Israel are of great concern for the world.

Since Russia and China are blocking the adoption of a tougher resolution on Iran by the Security Council, the US and Western countries have introduced their own unilateral sanctions so severe that they are called "crippling". Among the most significant are the ban on the use of the dollar and euro in transactions with Iran and an embargo on the purchase of oil from that country. On 23 January, the European Union approved a new sanctions package, providing for the refusal to import Iranian oil and petroleum products by all 27 EU members.

Despite the vigorous claims by Iranian politicians, these sanctions are having the most negative impact on the Iranian economy. It is now impossible to acquire spare parts for the Western technology and equipment used by Iran, the unemployment is rising, the local currency is depreciating rapidly against the dollar and the euro, foreign investors are leaving the country, and not only Western, but even Russian and Turkish.

These circumstances have given President Barack Obama the ammunition to warn Israel, during a recent visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the USA, against dealing military strikes and waiting until the sanctions imposed on Iran and the diplomatic pressure yield fruit. At a time when the US presidential campaign is under way, Barack Obama finds it difficult to decide to bomb Iran's nuclear and military facilities, although, according to opinion polls, there is a growing number of supporters of this measure among US citizens. Nevertheless, the risks are too high, and not just purely military. After all, the US economy is just beginning to recover, while the hike in the oil price, which is inevitable if the hostilities start, may plunge it into a new recession. 

Senior US and Israeli officials have confirmed that President Obama rejected two key Israeli proposals. First, to establish the final and absolute "red line" in relation to Iran's nuclear program and the crossing of it will give the USA and Israel the ammunition to deal a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel claims that Washington's policies on Iran can be characterized by a "permanent shift of the red line". Every time Iran achieves progress in its nuclear development, America sets a new "red line" to avoid confrontation. This enables Tehran to develop its nuclear program from one US "red line" to another. Second, to stop repeating the mantra that "all the options are on the table" in order to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons and define more clearly the conditions for the start of US military action.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is faced with a difficult choice. It is hard to venture to deal a military strike without the approval and support of Washington, especially since 58 per cent of the Israelis oppose it, as shown by recent opinion polls. But neither can it watch idly Iran's nuclear program advancing. On return to Tel Aviv, Netanyahu said, "We will not stand with a stopwatch and wait. We are not talking about days or weeks, but not years either. The strike must result in the elimination of the threat that Iran may acquire a nuclear weapon." These are not just words. Previously, the Pentagon chief Leon Panetta said that, according to him, Israel could conduct a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities in late spring - early summer of this year.

There have been threatening statements from both sides in the past too, but now they are more specific. At the same time, a powerful military fist is concentrating in the Persian Gulf region, including three aircraft carriers of the United States, a French aircraft carrier and British submarines. As for Iran, its armed forces have recently conducted large-scale exercises on blocking the Strait of Hormuz through which a quarter of world oil exports passes.

Against this troubled backdrop, Iran held its parliamentary election on 2 March. The reformers, liberals and leftists tried to register their candidates, but the authorities denied this opportunity to a vast majority of them for formal reasons. The leaders of the "green opposition", in particular Mir Hossein Musavi and Mehdi Karrubi, are under house arrest, while many of their supporters have been imprisoned. As a result, the struggle for deputy mandates evolved mainly between two conservative camps - supporters of the Iranian spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and those close to the incumbent President Ahmadinejad.

Although the opposition called on the population to boycott the polls, voter turnout was quite high and amounted to almost 64 per cent. At the end of the first round, the representatives of the conservative camp won over 200 of the 290 seats in parliament, while their traditional rivals, the reformers, will have about 20 seats. This means that their representation in parliament has reduced three times. In 63 polling stations the first round did not reveal a winner and there will be a run-off vote in them. However, it is unlikely to change the balance of power in the Iranian parliament, in which a majority of seats went to the candidates from the "United Front of conservatives" led by former parliament speaker Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Bagher Ghalibaf. The pro-presidential "Union of Builders of Islamic Iran" ("Abadargan") has failed, and now Ahmadinejad will have to work the rest of his term with a parliament hostile to him. He has long lost the confidence and support of Iran's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. Therefore, Ahmadinejad can barely expect that he can nominate an acceptable successor.

Azerbaijan is not indifferent to the foreign political situation surrounding Iran and its domestic developments. Recently, our bilateral relationship has been rather tense, which has resulted in public accusations and exchanges of harshly-worded diplomatic notes. Obviously, this is not for the benefit of the two countries. Our closest ally Turkey is also concerned about the tension in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations.

In this regard, the trilateral meeting of foreign ministers of the three countries, Elmar Mammadyarov, Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Akbar Salehi in Naxcivan on 7 March was quite timely. At the end of the meeting the ministers signed a joint declaration consisting of 15 points, whereby Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran called for a continuation of the discussion of important regional and international issues and stressed the need for resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict within the framework of international law. The sides also noted the possibility of joining the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars and Naxcivan-Culfa-Tabriz rail lines and considered the simplification of visa regulations. Most importantly, the Naxcivan Declaration "expressed the determination that the parties will not, under any circumstances, allow for the use of their territories for any threat or activity that can lead to hostility". This should remove the fears the Iranian leaders have been expressing in relation to Azerbaijan's military cooperation with Israel. The next meeting of foreign ministers is scheduled to take place in Van, Turkey, in September 2012.

As for military strike on Iran, I would suggest that the worst will be avoided. The EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, has said on behalf of the "5 plus 1" (permanent members of UN Security Council plus Germany) that there was a willingness to continue talks with Iran in order to remove "the international community's concern over its nuclear program". Although the previous round of the talks was held in Istanbul in January 2011 and ended inconclusively, the European powers, Turkey and Arab countries insist on continuing the dialogue with a view to reaching a mutually acceptable compromise. The chances for that are there. The clouds are gathering over Iran, but a military thunderstorm has better be avoided.