"ARAB SPRING" AFTER A YEAR

Exactly one year ago, events dubbed Arab Spring began in some Middle Eastern and North African countries, resulting in the overthrow of four old political regimes - in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya.

Leading Western powers and experts assess the events in the aforementioned countries as a revolutionary movement of the masses that strive for democratic change. At the same time, there are many people who claim the opposite. According to the latter, "Arab Spring" is a skilful Western plan, in which the protagonists are not the people, but groups of individuals who received financial-political, armed, social, and moral support from abroad.

Both statements have their own logic, and the truth, as always, is in the middle. That is why the question of how the revolutionary processes ended in these countries is relevant today? Can we say that the masses achieved their own aspirations (or are on their way to this)? We will try to find the answers to these questions in the situations that have developed in these countries.

The first swallow

In mid-January 2011, Tunisia's 74-year-old President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled the country for over 20 years, fled to Saudi Arabia under pressure from protest movements in the country, transferring presidential powers to the speaker of parliament.

In the early parliamentary elections to the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), held in October last year, the outlawed moderate Islamist party Ennahda (Revival) scored a victory (90 seats out of the 217). International observers from the OSCE called the elections to the NCA the first fair, free and democratic elections in the country. The same assessment was given by US President Barack Obama who promised full support for Tunisians in building a democratic and free society. EU Commissioner for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton and EU Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule also congratulated Ennahda on its victory in the elections. At the same time, the riots that broke out in the cradle of the "Arab Spring" (the city of Sidi Bouzid) after the announcement of the results showed that not everyone in Tunisia shares the optimism of Washington and Brussels.

The leader of the Ennahda party, Rachid Ghannouchi, called on the rioters to calm down. He laid the blame for the riots on supporters of the ousted former president. Residents of Sidi Bouzid, who do not agree with the official results of the elections, support mainly the Popular List party. However, the NCA has already managed to elect a new interim head of state and has formed a transitional government. The new president of Tunisia is Moncef Marzouki who appointed Hamadi Jebali prime minister. Marzouki, who was supported by 153 deputies of the Tunisian NCA, was one of the most prominent figures of the opposition movement under Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. It should be noted that the presidential elections were uncontested, as the largest factions had already agreed on the candidacy of Marzouki. The Islamists, who failed to get even a simple majority in the NCA, will have to enter into a coalition with secular parties to make important decisions in the future. The early parliamentary elections are the first stage in the transitional political process in Tunisia. Now, the main tasks of the NCA are to develop a new constitution and guidelines of the state system and determine the future structure of the country. Ennahda, for its part, promises the Tunisians a worthy life and democracy, and foreign partners - stability.

Meanwhile, Tunisia, which was previously considered to be quite a prosperous state by regional standards, is perceived as an island of stability and rationality and continues its movement towards freedom, according to the new president. The population, in turn, requires the authorities to create new jobs for people and respect their dignity. In response, the new authorities are trying to reduce the high unemployment rate, which reaches 50 per cent in some areas. In addition, discontent with the high level of corruption is growing among the country's population. Against the background of a lack of police forces, the rate of street crime has increased. The flow of tourists fell by a third in the past year. Tunisians complain about high prices. Political life in the country is not quite stable. Rumour has it that weapons are seeping from Libya into Tunisia through the desert. The authorities fear uncontrolled waves of protests. Marzouki himself publicly admitted that running the country is more difficult than he thought. Despite the problems, the bulk of the population believes in the bright future of democracy. But compared with the situation in Egypt and Libya, the difficulties Tunisia is currently experiencing look totally nonsensical.

"Spring" came to Egypt

After the overthrow of former President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, power was taken by the military elite (the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of Egypt) led by Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, which appointed Essam Sharaf prime minister. But in the last 10 days of November last year, ahead of the parliamentary elections, Egypt's military leadership agreed to transfer power to a civilian elected leadership under pressure from powerful protests taking place in Cairo's Tahrir Square. The formation of a new government was entrusted to the former prime minister of the country, Kamal al-Ganzuri, which was welcomed by demonstrators with jubilation. Another demand was to name the date for the presidential elections no later than April of this year. Against the backdrop of these incidents, election to the lower house of the Egyptian parliament (People's Assembly) was held in three phases from 28 November last year to 20 January this year, during which supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood beat all their rivals and gained 47 per cent of all seats. Muhammad Saad al-Katatni, the general secretary of the Freedom and Justice Party, which represents the Muslim Brotherhood, was elected speaker of the Lower House. The Salafi Party of Light (An-Nur), which advocates strict adherence to Islam and stands out for its militant fanaticism, came second in this election, gaining 25 per cent of the vote. Nonetheless, demonstrations, riots, vandalism, and even hostage-taking in Egypt are continuing. Nevertheless, at the demand of the demonstrators, on 25 January the authorities abolished the state of emergency which had been in force in the country for over 30 years. At the end of January this year, elections to the upper chamber (Advisory Council - Shura) of the parliament got under way. They will be held in two phases and end on 22 February.

In early February, life in Egypt was marred by another tragedy. In the city of Port Said, 74 people were killed and about 1,000 were wounded in a stampede and brawl at a stadium after a football match. The tragedy, which Egyptian members of parliament and media blamed on the military authorities and the Interior Ministry, caused a new wave of protests and attacks on police stations in Cairo, Giza, Alexandria and Suez. Now the protesters are demanding immediate presidential elections, and only then, will a new constitution be adopted.

The most influential political force in Egypt - Muslim Brotherhood - expressed willingness to form a coalition government for the transitional period. It is remarkable that the Egyptian authorities found an American hand in the recent unrest in the country. Cairo recently handed over to the US State Department over 100 pages of documents with accusations against members of the NGOs illegally funded from abroad. In response, Washington expressed its indignation, and then threatened to stop financial aid to Egypt (1.3bn dollars annually). In addition, the USA blamed the tragedy in Port Said on Egypt's military authorities.

Thus, it is too early to talk about improvements in the situation in Egypt. And in such a situation it is hardly possible to talk about the positive results of the revolution in this country.

Libya is next

The situation after a bloody civil war in Libya, which resulted in the overthrow and physical elimination of the dictator Muammar Gaddafi, is no less dramatic. The country's new authorities are increasingly being accused of not only being unable to cope with their tasks, but also of acts of violence against their own citizens. A report prepared by the UN mission in Libya says that about 7,000 new dissidents, including foreigners, women and even children, have ended up in the dungeons of the revolutionary regime which came to power thanks to direct military support from the West. The insurgents almost entirely destroyed the city of Taverga, and its population (mostly from sub-Saharan African countries) was subjected to ethnic cleansing. The document emphasizes that many detainees are being tortured, and the situation of women prisoners causes serious concern. Figuratively speaking, the NATO bombings in Libya have been replaced with revolutionary violence.

During the recent UN discussions on the post-revolutionary situation in Libya, it was clearly noted that the Transitional National Council (TNC) is not able to control the armed groups in the country and has no support among the general population. The human rights organizations Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International accused the new government of Libya of making arbitrary arrests and torturing detainees suspected of involvement in the fighting on the side of the country's former president. Moreover, according to their reports, torture is being used both by official security forces and numerous detachments of armed militias who do not obey any laws. In this regard, the international non-governmental organization Doctors without Borders suspended its work in the prisons of Libya, as representatives of the new government, which overthrew Gaddafi, continue to torture prisoners. In Sirte, several hundred bodies of executed supporters of Gaddafi were found. Here, a group of extremists desecrated and destroyed four graves of relatives of the former Libyan leader.

The new government itself is already facing the harsh realities of post-revolutionary life. On 21 January, hundreds of protesters attacked the TNC headquarters. According to the demonstrators, the authorities introduced a series of election laws without public discussion. Despite the fact that the incident was resolved quickly, the mayor of Benghazi was forced to resign. And in the town of Bani Walid, clashes occurred between supporters of the country's former leader, Gaddafi, and TNC forces. Also in Tripoli, an attempt was made on the life of Libyan Prime Minister Abdel Rahim al-Kib. Meanwhile, former rebels are organizing rallies in the capital and demanding the payment of their salaries more and more insistently. Some of them threaten to overthrow the new Libyan authorities.

It should be noted that the TNC has repeatedly urged international institutions and Western countries to unblock the accounts of deposed Gaddafi, which could be used to improve the economic situation in the country. According to Western sources and rebels, the size of these funds is 150-200bn dollars, but the West is not giving a positive response to these requests, arguing that it is not sure if these funds will be used rationally and reasonably. There is strange distrust from the West. After all, these forces were presented as truly popular and capable. In that case, why is it that the funds cannot be entrusted to them? Or maybe they do not exist at all? Or all games were designed precisely to ensure that these funds disappear in an unknown location in the West. All these questions are not idle. The West is also wary of increasing Islamist sentiment in Libya. The country has registered its first Islamic party, and some rebels demand the establishment of a Shariah regime in Libya.

So...

The situation in the three countries, where the government changed as part of the Arab Spring, is not encouraging today. According to the West, which initiated and supported these processes, the new authorities of these countries will eventually have to establish democratic regimes that resemble the Western model in some way. But the reality shows that it is too early to expect such an outcome. So far, only one of the main objectives pursued by the West has been achieved. A powerful blow has been dealt to the military elites of these countries. Instead, the positions of moderate Islamists (in particular Muslim Brotherhood) have sharply increased. Most likely, the West counts on the support of those forces in the fight against radical Islamists. In this game, few people worry about the masses who got chaos, continued acts of violence, vandalism and fighting in return for their revolutionary impulses. Regrettably, these are the first results of the Arab Spring after a year. It is hoped that the societies of these countries will soon find the courage and political will to turn over the tragic page of their own history.