CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE

A new wave of arrests of current and retired representatives of the senior military command is possible in Turkey. According to the Turkish media, a group of MPs from the ruling Justice and Development Party called on the authorities to prosecute those involved in the 1980 military coup, including members of the military tribunal.

Meanwhile, the opposition and some Turkish analysts believe that the continuation of arrests among the military leadership can deal a big blow to the main pillar of the secular republic.

Experts are concerned over the fact that all these processes are taking place against the backdrop of the intensive fight against the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party and international tensions around the issue of the so-called "Armenian genocide".

We asked the Turkish political scientist and columnist of Cumhuriyet newspaper, Leyla Tavsanoglu, to explain what changes can be expected in the domestic and foreign policy of Turkey if relations between the army and civilian authorities deteriorate.

- Can we assume that as a result of all these arrests and controversial trials, the role of the Turkish army as the guarantor of the secular foundations of the state will decrease?

- At the moment, it is difficult to answer this question. If we admit that Turkey is a democratic country, the secular state system should be protected not by the army, but by political parties and civic institutions. But Turkey is a special state. In this respect, it is impossible to predict what will happen next.

- How do you think relations between the ruling party and the army will continue to develop?

- It seems that relations between the ruling elite and the current leadership of the army are settled. For example, the government and the army demonstrate full understanding on military operations against the military wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party. The relationship between Prime Minister Erdogan and the new head of the general staff of the Turkish army, Necdet Ozel, appear to be based on trust. So I do not think that in the short-term, there can be some tension between the government and the Turkish army.

- Can the arrest of the former chief of the general staff, Ilker Basbug, and other generals adversely affect relations between Turkey and the United States, given that the Turkish generals are traditionally regarded as pro-American?

- The unprecedented arrest by a civil court of a high-ranking military official has not caused a significant reaction from the United States yet. Yes, anti-American and anti-NATO persons cannot get into the highest command. Therefore, the American silence on the arrest of the chief of the general staff looks strange.

Perhaps Basbug's arrest is motivated by the fact that, as chief of the general staff, he revealed the plans of the community leader, Fethullah Gulen, and his supporters to take over some of the key Turkish state institutions. But Fethullah Gulen and his community are patronized and supported by certain circles in the United States. In any case, for the time being, nothing in particular is happening in Turkey that would cause concern in Washington.

- Several experts are talking about the army moving into the background and the general staff being deprived of its decisive role in political decision-making, which may lead to new threats for Turkey. These include the strengthening of terrorism in eastern Anatolia, the loss of positions in the Cyprus issue, etc.

- Of course, without the support of the army, Turkey's territorial integrity will be jeopardized. We have no doubts about this. But it is purely the military aspect of the problem of separatism. And there is also the political aspect of the problem. In this regard, all responsibility rests with the ruling elite. What sort of political will the government show in the long- and short-term if there is a threat to the integrity of the country? Now this question is very relevant in Turkey. One gets the impression that Turkey is caught in the crossfire. On the one hand, our borders have seen battles of "Arab spring", the once fraternal relations with Syria have worsened considerably, Iran and Russia seek to strengthen their positions in the region, and on the other, Turkish-Israeli relations are damaged to an extreme degree and the US intends to establish its own order in the region. To this, we must add the activity of the PKK and the well-known decision of the French Senate on the so-called Armenian genocide. All this threatens to lead Turkey into a quagmire from which it will be difficult to get out.