SANCTIONS BEAR FRUIT

Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said on 27 January, for the first time since the conflict over Iran's nuclear program began to escalate, that he was prepared to resume talks with international mediators, BBC reported citing state television.

At the same time, Ahmadinejad hinted that Tehran's readiness to continue negotiations should not be construed as a surrender of its positions in the face of sanctions against Iran. "It is the West that needs Iran, because our country will not lose anything from the imposition of sanctions," Ahmadinejad said and added that tougher sanctions would not force his country to abandon its nuclear program.

We recall that a few days prior to the statement the EU imposed new sanctions against Tehran, providing for an embargo on the imports of Iranian oil and petrochemical products. It was also decided to ban the exports of equipment and technologies for Iran's oil industry and to freeze Iranian assets in the European Central Bank. Back in November last year, the USA, the UK and Canada announced the introduction of sanctions against Iran's energy and financial sectors. At the same time, French President Nicolas Sarkozy offered an unprecedented freezing of assets of the Iranian Central Bank and a boycott of the Iranian oil. Finally, the decision on sanctions has been taken.

Tehran supplies about 20 per cent of its export oil to Europe, and the major consumers of it are Greece, Spain and Italy. Moreover, the obligation on the purchase of Iranian oil under existing contracts is valid until 1 July this year. Apparently, the West considers finding alternative sources that can fully replace Iranian oil. In order to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, a joint group of the US, French and British Navy have entered it. 

It is noteworthy that the Iranian authorities show little concern over the loss of European markets. Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mahmud-Reza Sajjadi said that China remains Tehran's important partner on this issue. Beijing will not abandon the Iranian oil even under heavy pressure from the United States. In the words of the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ramin Mehmanparast, the EU's decision to force Tehran to abandon its nuclear program will not yield any results. Although such rhetoric on the part of Tehran is quite familiar, it is very frustrating for Washington and its European allies.

Even before the embargo decision French President Nicolas Sarkozy had said that Paris would do its utmost to prevent a military scenario of the Iranian issue. However, the French leader focused on the need for forcing Iran to come to the negotiating table and agree to reverse its nuclear program. Otherwise, a military conflict and foreign intervention can hardly be avoided. In this regard, Sarkozy urged Russia and China to support at least the imposition of severe sanctions. But Moscow and Beijing, which have serious geopolitical interests in Iran, have their own vision of the issue.

Commenting on the EU decision to impose an embargo on Iranian oil, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow fears the collapse of political and diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian issue, including those undertaken by a group of six (USA, Russia, Britain, France, China and Germany). This decision is particularly dangerous in the run-up to a trip to Iran by the IAEA secretariat team which will visit Iran's nuclear sites and continue the dialogue on the reaching an agreement with Tehran on the resumption of talks between Iran and the group of six. So Moscow has urged all parties, including the EU, to exercise utmost restraint and caution and not to escalate the overall confrontational tone. Beijing has also criticized the EU sanctions against Iran and described them as "gross pressure" and "unconstructive approach".

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed grave concern over Iran's nuclear program, but noted that "there is no alternative to the peaceful resolution of Iranian nuclear issue". He urged the parties "to refrain from rhetoric that is unlikely to bring any benefit". But it is highly unlikely that the call by the secretary general of the organization whose authority has recently suffered a major setback will be heard. Besides, lots have already been cast.

Most Western experts view Iran's consent to the examination of its nuclear sites as an attempt to gain time. Meanwhile, Tehran has no intention of staying in debt. Trying to take the lead in the issue, the Iranian parliament is working on a draft law providing for an immediate cessation of oil exports to the EU before July this year. The chairman of the Iranian parliament's committee on national security and foreign policy, Mohammad Kousari, said Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz if faced with the problem of selling its crude oil. He expressed confidence that the USA would fail to unlock it even with the assistance of all its allies.

Despite the brave statements of Tehran, the consolidated Western pressure and the economic sanctions are bearing fruit. After the EU had approved the embargo on oil supplies, the rate of the Iranian rial against the dollar declined by seven per cent and by nearly 50 per cent over the last month In addition, Iran's national currency depreciated by more than 60 per cent last year This could lead to political destabilization in the country, something the West hopes will happen.

In addition, against the background of an ongoing struggle for power among different political groups, four high-ranking commanders of the elite military unit, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, died in Iran over the course of five days in late January. The official cause of the deaths of senior servicemen, aged 50 to 55, are strokes and cardiac arrests. Meanwhile, the deaths have given rise to various speculations in Iranian society. Some Iranian media have suggested that the serviceman might have been killed.

Iran's nuclear dossier has become a major stumbling block in the relations between the West and Tehran. But the paradox lies in the fact that Iran's nuclear program was initially launched with the blessing and active participation of Washington and its allies. Back in 1967, the USA sold Iran a nuclear reactor with a capacity of 5 MW. Then, technological assistance in the construction of reactors was provided by West Germany and France. In 1974, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran was established and developed a plan to build 23 nuclear power plants worth about 30bn dollars with support from the United States and Western European countries over the course of 25 years. The same year, the then Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, made an unexpected public statement that "Iran will have nuclear weapons, no doubt, sooner than some may think". In the West, the words caused a profound shock because Iran had signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1968 and ratified it in 1970. The pressure exerted on Tehran from Washington later compelled the Shah to disavow his own statement. Then, in 1977, Paris and Bonn sold Iran two nuclear reactors each. The following year, Iran received a US research reactor with a capacity of 5 MW. Cooperation with Iran in the field of nuclear power was started by Argentina, while West Germany began the construction of two nuclear power units at Bushehr. After the Islamic revolution in Iran and the overthrow of the Shah, the new government abandoned the plan to build nuclear power plants. Not only foreign experts but also a large number of Iranians involved in nuclear projects left the country. A few years later, when the situation in the country stabilized, the Iranian leaders resumed the nuclear program. A training and research center with a reactor based on heavy water was established in Isfahan with the help of China and the mining of uranium ore was continued. At the same time, Iran negotiated the purchase of uranium enrichment and heavy water production technology with companies from Switzerland and Germany. Iranian physicists visited the National Institute of Nuclear Physics and High Energy Physics in Amsterdam and the Nuclear Centre in Petten, the Netherlands. In 1992, Iran and Russia established a close cooperation in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. In 1995, Moscow signed an agreement with Tehran on the completion of the first unit of the Bushehr plant. The construction began in 1998. Since 2003, the United States has been accusing Iran of working secretly to create nuclear weapons. But even before that, in 2002, US President George Bush attributed Iran to the "axis of evil", a group of countries that fund terrorists and seek to acquire nuclear weapons.

Initially, Washington's attempts to achieve international isolation of Iran in order to thwart the creation of a nuclear bomb by this country faced resistance from France, Germany, Great Britain and Russia. But over time the USA turned the situation in its favor. Also, IAEA inspectors found centrifuges for enriching uranium in Iran in 2003.

Both Tehran and Washington have weaknesses in this confrontation. Having signed the NPT, Iran pledged never to develop nuclear weapons. But Tehran argues that if the USA is so concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons not only in the Middle East but throughout the world, then this requirement should also apply to other countries, including Israel, although Tel Aviv did not sign the NPT. Tehran accuses Washington of violating another provision of the agreement, whereby the states possessing nuclear weapons have the right not to transfer the nuclear technology to third countries. Today, according to various assumptions, Israel has 100-200 nuclear warheads. Although Tel Aviv has not commented on this, Tehran accuses the USA which, as it says, has helped its strategic ally to acquire the deadly weapons. The situation is complicated further by the fact that India and Pakistan have also acquired nuclear power, with the active assistance of Russia and the United States.

Nevertheless, Washington's position seems to be more reasoned and less vulnerable in the confrontation with Iran. The tactics chosen by Washington remains unchanged: "To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons". Meanwhile, Tehran either insists on a peaceful nature of its nuclear program or says that no-one and nothing can prevent it from acquiring its own nuclear weapons, which would enable it to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Such inconsistency raises doubts over the sincerity of Tehran's policies and causes distrust from the international community towards Iran.