DANGEROUS GAME OF GENOCIDE

France ventured to take a step that may seriously damage its image as a democratic state and its relations with Turkey. And now a big question mark is hanging over not only the prospects of relations between Paris and Ankara, but also France's influence on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and other regions bordering on Turkey.

The upper chamber of the French Parliament approved a bill to criminalize the denial of the so-called "Armenian genocide". As a result, anyone who considers the historical tales of the Armenians illegitimate will be forced to spend a year in jail in France or pay a fine of 45,000 euros. The final fate of the controversial document is now in the hands of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who must sign or reject the bill.

It was not difficult to predict Ankara's natural reaction. The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling the French law on criminal prosecution for denying the "Armenian genocide" "an irresponsible and dubious decision in all respects".

Ankara's most important statement came from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who believes that French citizens should condemn their President Nicolas Sarkozy and his companions. "Those who remain silent today are turning a blind eye to the revival of fascism in Europe," Erdogan said. In addition, he reiterated his country's intention to impose sanctions against France.

Experts estimate that the decision of the French MPs will cost their country at least 4 billion dollars. That is the amount of money Turkey was planning to pay the company Eurosam to buy long-range missiles and air defence systems. It is likely that Ankara will now turn its attention to American producers of strategic weapons.

However, it is very hard to believe that French politicians are unaware of all the possible consequences of their reprehensible decision. Simply, the purposes they pursue, they believe, should compensate for all the possible costs of a break with Turkey. By and large, there are two such goals. The first goal is a long-term one: to permanently block Turkey's path to the EU and thereby eliminate the prospects of a strong power, which, according to its demographic, economic and military potential, could play a leading role in the EU, entering into the European area. The second goal is momentary - presidential elections to be held in France in a few months. The party of the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy and its opponents represented by the Socialists are fighting almost for every vote, so the support of the 500,000-strong Armenian diaspora will have an impact on the future disposition of political forces in France.

As you can see, these goals are too far from the ideals of democracy, freedom and humanism preached by France. It is no surprise that the law on the denial of the "Armenian genocide" was ambiguously received by the French public. For example, during a popular talk show on the French TV channel Direct 8, the well-known journalist Chloe Leprince said that First Lady Carla Bruni-Sarkozy had a hand in adopting the law and negatively evaluated the decision of the French Parliament. In her opinion, such questions are relevant to history and are not the prerogative of the legislature.

A thorough analysis of the law was carried out on the pages of the influential newspaper Liberation by the law professor Bertrand Mathieu and Anne Levada, who believe that the bill criminalizing the denial of "Armenian genocide" calls into question freedom of speech and freedom of research in France. "Regardless of the legitimacy of the desire to honour the memory of the Armenians and secure recognition of the persecution of which they became victims, this recognition cannot be done through a violation of constitutional principles," the French scientists are convinced.

It is noteworthy that Paris's excessive pro-Armenian sympathies were sharply criticized by European neighbours. British Prime Minister David Cameron, acknowledging the French Parliament's freedom of decision-making, nevertheless, said: "In my country, draft laws aimed at the past are also being put forward, but I think we should live in the present." At the same time, Cameron called for "the entry of Muslim Turkey into the European Union" to be guaranteed, which clearly indicates London's intention to take the initiative in the further negotiations between Ankara and Brussels and push Paris away from the discussions on the Turkish application for EU membership.

As for the leadership of the European Union, Brussels is not happy with the decision of the French Parliament. "I think it is not the European Commission's business to intervene in the matter, which affects an EU member state and a candidate country. Such important sensitive issues are best addressed by historians through dialogue and comparison of facts rather than through political declarations," European Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy Stefan Fule said.

Paris also received an unflattering response from the other side of the ocean. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Washington was not encouraging the decision to criminalize the denial of the "Armenian genocide". In fact, calling into question the democratic image of France, Clinton said: "One of the strengths of the United States is that we do not punish people for their views. People can say almost anything they want. In the US, they do so. Other countries may have different standards and regulations. But I hope that we will never punish anyone for their remarks." The secretary of state expressed her conviction that the question of recognizing "the Armenian genocide" should be "addressed not by politicians, but by historians. Gather the evidence, announce your arguments and be prepared to participate in a discussion. Involving the state in addressing these issues is a very dangerous practice."

Meanwhile, the French lawmakers' decision affects not only the interests of Turkey, but also those of Azerbaijan. "The Azerbaijan Republic deeply regrets the adoption by the French Senate of the bill to criminalize the denial of the 'genocide' and strongly condemns this decision. The politicization of this issue by French MPs, who are turning a blind eye to the violation of the rights of one million Azerbaijanis who were displaced as a result of the Armenian aggression in the late 20th century, and to the occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territories, casts aspersions on the impartiality of France as a whole," the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan said in a statement. Baku rightly pointed out that the French senators should have recognized the genocide of civilians in Xocali, which was perpetrated less than 20 years ago when Armenian thugs brutally killed over 600 people.

In Baku, there are more and more people who believe that the adoption of this law leaves France with no moral right to co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group for the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Ankara also agrees with this formulation of the problem. "We will definitely deal with the question of how a state that keeps so fanatically to a certain position in its parliament can also be a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. Either Turkey must be one of the co-chairs, or France should not be among the co-chairs," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said.

It is also clear that despite the Armenians' undisguised joy, they will be the main party affected by the provocative decision of the French politicians. The plight of Armenia will worsen even further as support for its aggressive policy by its patron contributes to the deterioration of Armenia's relations with neighbouring countries and makes it impossible for the "sister of France" to overcome the disastrous isolation.