BATTLE OF THE “ELEPHANTS”

This year is an election year, which will affect many global processes in the future. Russia will hold presidential elections in March and France in April, and the congress of the Communist Party of China and US presidential elections are scheduled towards the end of the year. The process of registering presidential candidates is under way in Russia, while the election campaign has already started in France.

Primaries - a preliminary presidential election campaign - have started in Iowa in the United States, in which only Republicans are taking part because the Democrats have already decided on their candidate - it will be the incumbent US President Barack Obama.

The presidential campaign of 2012 is expected to be more aggressive and costlier than all the previous ones. For the current president, the main difference in this campaign is that now, unlike last time, the electorate will be assessing not the future programme of the candidate Barack Obama, but his work in the first term. In other words, the upcoming election will also be a kind of referendum for the incumbent on whether he lived up to the expectations or not. In psychological and tactical terms, it will be easier for the current opponents of Barack Obama than for John McCain and other Republicans during the presidential race of 2008. At that time, they had to defend the policy that had been pursued by the Republican president - George W. Bush - for eight years. Now their unflattering drive will not be restricted by anything. Having tasted victory in the recent congressional elections, the Republicans will do everything possible to develop their success in the presidential race of 2012.

The Republicans criticize the current government because unemployment in the US exceeds 8 per cent, the economy is getting out of the crisis very slowly, the real estate market does not inspire optimism and, finally, there is too much inconsistency in the presidential administration's foreign policy. According to the Republicans, by increasing the national debt, the Obama administration may put the US in Greece's position. Tax rises stimulated by the Democrats, according to the Republicans, will also make the US similar to European states that are known for their high levels of taxation.

The Democrats' defeat in the midterm elections in November 2010 allowed a number of analysts to say that the current president will not serve more than one term. Undoubtedly, the loss of a significant number of seats in both houses of Congress significantly weakened Obama's chances of realizing the promises he made during the presidential race. However, the incumbent president has not lost chances of re-election.

History shows that the outcome of the midterm elections is not the sole criterion for predicting the presidential race. Among the factors that increase Obama's chances of winning are, of course, the elimination of Bin Laden, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, the fight against unemployment and reforms in health care and education. But most of all, Obama benefits from the fact that the Republicans have yet to reach a consensus as to who must struggle for the presidency.

The Republican camp still has no favourite in the election campaign. Perhaps, the eight years of Bush's presidency clearly reduced the theoretical base of the Republican Party: there are no fresh ideas, no charisma and no "real active" politicians. The Republicans have not had such vague opinions on the future presidential candidate for a long time. Recently, differences on key issues have grown within the party, and each group sees its own candidate in the presidential race. Classically, these groups are divided into traditional conservatives, social conservatives and conservative libertarians.

The traditional conservatives are the oldest and largest wing of the party. These politicians are interested in objectives of economy and finances, seeking to promote principles of low taxation and benefits for large businesses. The traditionalists oppose the trade union movement, often siding with bosses rather than workers in most disputes. Therefore, the problems of public relations concern them less than others, although they remain rigid conservatives in them.

The social conservatives, judging by their name, are more focused on social issues. These party members are in favour of banning abortions, eliminating the rights of sexual minorities, religious instruction in schools, oppose all restrictions on the purchase and possession of weapons and so on. Economic issues do not worry this wing so much, and they are mostly populists here. In quantitative terms, this group is smaller than the traditional conservatives, but they are very active and very often, this is their strength. To achieve their goals, they are willing to use an incredible amount of resources - both material and other - only occasionally constraining themselves by anything.

The libertarian conservatives, who seem to be very stubborn conservatives on the one hand, are in favour of minimum state intervention in the economy and the lives of citizens. But, despite this, they do not support their party colleagues on issues of restricting the rights of sexual minorities and banning abortions, leaving questions of morality beyond the functions of the state machinery. Also, the conservatives treat the Republicans' traditional interventionist foreign policy without enthusiasm. In this respect, they are similar to liberals and anti-militarists.

Meanwhile, in recent years, a political group called the "Tea Party Movement" or the "Tea Party" (by analogy with the "Boston Tea Party" in 1773) has emerged on the American political scene. Here are just some of the tasks set by the party due to their importance: cuts in the government apparatus, taxes, government spending, national debt and budget deficit and observance of the US constitution.

All these contradictions among the Republicans are reflected in the results of the primaries in Iowa. The primaries in this state are significant in that the election campaign will be officially launched there, and their results are important in the further process, as they reveal voters' preferences. This is what President Obama meant in a video message to voters during the primaries, stressing that after his victory in Iowa in 2008, he gained experience and looks more optimistically at many things.

However, Republican representatives cannot feel optimistic after the announcement of the results of the voting during the primary election in Iowa. No clear leader was identified among the Republican candidates. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorium received 25 per cent of the vote. Mitt Romney beat Santorium with a difference of only 8 votes. The congressman from Texas, Ron Paul, came third with 21 per cent, while the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came fourth with 14 per cent. This pattern also suggests ideological conflicts within the Republican Party. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, and the congresswoman from Minnesota, Michele Bachmann, who dropped out of the race after the announcement of the results, still have the lowest results.

Judging by how campaign dollars are being spent, Barack Obama's camp is convinced that the president's rival will be the ex-governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, who was one of the main opponents of Senator John McCain in the primaries of 2008. But now John McCain himself supports Mitt Romney. Romney belongs to the group of centrist politicians, who usually play the role of a cohesive force within the party. His political platform is much more acceptable than that of his opponents (he promises to improve the economy through tax cuts for major corporations, cancel the basic tax and the tax on dividends for some citizens, as well as contain the unions and regulate small businesses). Romney's advantage is also his huge fortune, which allows him to campaign independently, and his image as a successful businessman.

However, in the eyes of the conservative part of the party, Romney is very moderate. Followers of the "Tea Party" are worried that he will not defend their interests in the White House and is saying anything just to please everyone. Their disbelief only intensified after a leaked video from the campaign of 2002. In it, Romney tells a reporter that he does not consider himself to be a "loyal supporter of the Republicans" and regards himself as "moderate" and "consistent" (a forbidden word for 2012 candidates). Also, the fact that Romney is a Mormon by faith reduces his chances of victory. In this case, the core electorate of the Republicans, who are usually evangelicals, is unlikely to fervently support his candidacy. Therefore, Romney may have to focus his efforts on the conservative part of his programme. And this is fraught with the loss of some voters of other faiths and liberals. But Romney's strengths are that his candidacy is supported by the financial community and the Jewish lobby, for Romney promises to support Israel in everything in his foreign policy and to expand the Guantanamo prison. Incidentally, Romney plans to pay his first official visit as head of state to Israel. He also criticized Obama for "surrendering national interests to Russia" and for distancing himself from the "eternal ally of the US" - Israel.

Before the beginning of the primaries in Iowa, Mitt Romney criticized Obama for failure to keep the promises he made to voters in the same Iowa in 2008 and drew an analogy with the Armenian porn actress Kim Kardashian, who gave an oath of allegiance to "love to death" before a marriage that lasted only 72 days.

Rick Santorium, being a little-known candidate, is now the main rival of the favourite, having managed to win over the most faithful evangelical voters, even though he is Catholic himself. Uncompromising in matters of religion and morality and ultraliberal in the economy, Santorium is the embodiment of a conservative. In foreign policy, he promises to "finish off" Iran and Latin American countries opposing the US, and to closely support Israel. Santorium is called the dark horse of the election race, for this little-known candidate, to everyone's surprise, gained almost the same number of votes as Mitt Romney. Analysts explain this by the fact that, contrary to predictions, the "Tea Party Movement" supported Santorium rather than Michelle Bachmann. This is the reason for the low number of votes and the withdrawal of the only female candidate. Despite this, Santorium's shoestring budget and radical campaign rhetoric reduce his chances of winning.

Next on the list of the Republicans is the 76-year-old Ron Paul, who appears in the primaries for the third time. His philosophy is as little government intervention as possible and as much personal freedom as possible. Supporters of the libertarian candidate are young, wavering Republicans, as well as part of the "Tea Party Movement". But his almost fantastic campaign promises hinder him from being a complete favourite among party members. Among these promises is the complete cessation of any assistance to other countries, including Israel, and the closure of US military bases outside the United States and in Guantanamo. Some analysts have also predicted that Ron Paul will run for president as an independent candidate, which is undoubtedly a very dangerous trend for other candidates.

According to experts, until recently, Gingrich, the former Congress Speaker, and Rick Perry, Governor of Texas, had good chances. But the ultra-conservative position and some aspects of the former's personal biography, errors during TV debates and the low level of competence in foreign policy issues reduced the likelihood of them winning the primaries. However, both candidates still have a chance to rectify the situation in their favour.

Now, after studying all the hopefuls, it remains only to watch them fight. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton shared the victory in various states almost equally in 2008 and competed to the very end. Let's see how the Republicans do this time and with whom they will oppose the Democratic president. However pathetic this sounds, a lot in the fate of the world will depend on the man who takes the main seat in the White House.