"THORNS" OF MAGHREB

The implications of the "Arab revolution" that engulfed a number of countries in the Middle East in recent years continue to affect the entire regional situation. This also applies to North Africa, in three countries of which - Egypt, Libya and Tunisia - the "revolutionary spring" is still strongly felt.

Egypt is the key country of the region by its influence and potential. Recently, it was shaken by a bloody terrorist attack: a suicide bomber in a car laden with two tonnes of explosives rammed a large army post in Sheikh Zuweid in North Sinai near the border with the Gaza Strip. Thirty-three Egyptian soldiers were killed.

The tragedy again showed the vulnerability of post-revolutionary Egypt, which is still unable to overcome the acute internal tensions that turned into a bloody confrontation between secular circles supported by the army and the Islamists.

For nearly six months, Egypt has been led by AbdelFattah Elsisi - the former commander of the country's ground forces who is conducting a policy aimed at suppressing the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement, as it were, with "blood and iron". Many supporters of ousted former president Mohamed Morsi, who ascended to power in the Land of Pyramids as a result of the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak's long-time regime, were executed or sentenced to long prison terms. Islamists are fighting back and hence, the frequent explosions that have claimed the lives of more than 500 law enforcement officers over the past year. 

But the attack on Sinai is impressive with its power and what is more important, with its obvious connection to external forces. This was accentuated by President Elsisi in his address to the nation. He accused foreign centres of involvement in the terrorist attack on the border with Palestine. Although he did not name foreign countries, he accused them of financing the Egyptian Islamists in order to "break the backbone of Egypt".

Meanwhile, sources in the pro-government Egyptian newspaper Al-Watan, referring to the investigation, claim that the attack in Sheikh Zuweid was carried out by Palestinian militants from the radical group Jaysh al-Islam. However, the media got hold of information from Egyptian intelligence services, according to which behind the attacks was the Salafi group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis associated with the Islamic State operating in Iraq and Syria.

In any case, the traces lead to radical Islamic movements that have strong positions, particularly in Palestine. And here it is appropriate to note that one of the most important measures of President Elsisi was the withdrawal of Cairo's support for the Palestinian movement Hamas. The fact that Elsisi personally suspects radicals from Gaza of involvement in the Sinai terrorist attack is proven by the measures he took immediately: the Rafah checkpoint on the border with the Palestinian enclave was closed and the talks between Israel and Palestine with the mediation of Cairo were postponed indefinitely.

What is happening in Egypt really cannot be viewed in isolation from the country's international position. One of the key aspects in this regard is the relationship between Cairo with the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Elsisi engaged in a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, which, in turn, promise to allocate 12bn dollars in financial aid to Egypt. At the same time, Elsisi spoiled relations with Qatar, which openly patronized the Muslim Brotherhood and the former Egyptian President Morsi.

Thus, the severe economic crisis Egypt is experiencing, exacerbated by endless coups and "revolutionary" confusion, is forcing the country's leadership to seek funding from outside, putting the country at the mercy of these or other external forces. In view of the same bloody mess that has engulfed many countries of the Middle East, such a significant country of the Arab world as Egypt risks becoming an arena of confrontation between global and regional powerhouses, especially as we should not be mistaken that the tragic developments in the region are a direct result of this confrontation that is moving right up to the stage of the "war of all against all".

In this context, Egypt's relations with the United States acquired a very remarkable nature. The Obama administration treated quite coldly the overthrow of Morsi and the ascent of General Elsisi to power in Egypt, apparently, because this perturbation, in essence, means that Egypt resumes its "previous course" i.e., returns to military rule and, therefore, diverts from the "Arab revolution", with was perceived with such trepidation in the West. Only the decision of Cairo to join the US-led international coalition against the Islamic State made it possible to talk about a possible warming in US-Egyptian relations. There is no doubt that by formally joining the war against the terrorist IS, Cairo expects the USA to resume its military and financial assistance. At the same time, Egypt insists on one extremely important condition, which, however, is not so important to the United States. It is Cairo's desire to direct the sphere of interests of the international antiterrorist coalition also towards the fight against Islamists in neighbouring Libya. After the fall of the regime of Muammar Gaddafi, this country has become a fiefdom of terrorists of all stripes, thanks to whose "boldness" no trace remains of the past achievements of the Jamahiriya. And generally speaking, we can say that Libya practically does not exist as an integral state. Immediately after coming to power, Elsisi realized the threat of the terrorist rage in Libya to Egyptian security. Therefore, he expressed his readiness to provide military-technical and staff assistance to the Libyan government headed by Abdullah Abdurrahman al-Thani, which fled the capital Tripoli to the city of Tobruk, located near the border with Egypt, following attacks from Islamists.

However, the United States and other great powers, apparently, do not care about the Libyan chaos. On the eve of his recent visit to Cairo, Libyan Prime Minister al-Thani appealed to the international community for help in normalizing the situation in Libya, part of the territory of which is under the control of Islamist groups - local Muslim Brotherhood, Ansar al-Shariah, Al-Qa'eda and others. However, the UN Security Council did not heed this request, deciding not to intervene in the internal Lybian conflict. Thus, Egypt appears to be the only country really interested in maintaining unity and stability in Libya (at least for neutralizing the powerful terrorist threat looming to the west of the borders of the Land of Pyramids). 

Against the background of Egypt and Libya, another North African country - Tunisia, the first "victim of the Arab revolution", can boast much greater stability. Apparently, since the fall of the long-time regime, the protagonist of which in Tunisia was President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the country has succeeded, at least to date, in coping with the threat of the spread of Islamist influence. The parliamentary elections held shortly after Ben Ali was deposed in 2011 were won by the moderate Islamist party Ennahda (Revival), which formed a coalition government with leading secular parties. However, the leading role of Islamists in the political life of the country did not improve the lives of Tunisians. Inflation and instability led to the collapse of the coalition government in 2013, which was succeeded by a cabinet of technocrats. And now Tunisia has held new parliamentary elections that changed the balance of domestic political forces.

The victory in them was gained by the secular party Nidaa Tounes (The Call of Tunisia), which received 85 seats in the 217-seat Assembly of People's Representatives. Islamist Ennahda came second with 69 seats. The power system in Tunisia will finally take shape based on the results of the presidential elections scheduled for 23 November 2014. So, post-revolutionary Tunisia, unlike Egypt and Libya, is much luckier.

But regardless of how the "Arab Spring" develops, it is obvious that external intervention only aggravated the situation in specific countries of the region engulfed by the "revolution". The American publication The National Interest recognized an undeniable fact in this sense: the results of the revolutionary process demonstrate the complete failure of the West's aspirations to replace dictatorship with democracy, because either radical Islamist forces or the military who established a more rigid political regime came to power as a result of the overthrow of dictators in countries such as Egypt and Libya. And also, "the overthrow of a leader 'disliked' by the West is not necessarily a step towards democracy and stability".

There is no doubt that North Africa is still only at the beginning of the major changes that befell the region and the entire Middle East as a result of the "Arab revolution". Will they justify the popular aspirations for a better life or will the states have to undergo a major transformation in one way or another, and not always in a progressive manner, or simply disappear from the scene under attacks from international terrorism? No venerable expert would dare to give unequivocal answers to such questions. At the same time, one thing is clear: the fate of the region, like that of the globalizing world, depends on whether a new order in the interests of all subjects of international relations is established in the world or countries and peoples fall under the power of the "world chaos" that does not care about its victims.