WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE LIMIT

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan visited Tbilisi on a two-day visit in late November. For Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan's trip to Georgia was of particular importance at a time when the world community is discussing economic sanctions and embargoes against Iran. It is known that Tehran is Yerevan's second trading and economic partner after Moscow in the region, and if Iran is subjected to global sanctions, Armenia's only land exit to the outside world will be the Upper Lars checkpoint on the Russian-Georgian border.

Sargsyan was supposed to visit Georgia on 1 November, but the trip was cancelled because of the "Georgian president's tactless remarks on Armenia", according to the Armenian media. Talking about the operation to rescue Georgian citizens affected by a landslide on a road in Armenia, Saakashvili quoted one of the drivers, who criticized the Armenian authorities for arriving at the scene too late. In Armenia, this act was seen almost as "interference in the internal affairs" of the country, and even the president's visit to Georgia was cancelled.

Trying to take the edge off at a joint press conference, the two presidents stressed the inviolability of friendship between the two peoples and nations after a closed meeting. President Saakashvili called Sargsyan "an old and trusted friend", adding that good relations between Georgia and Armenia are at their peak. And the new visa regime, according to Saakashvili, will make the border between the two countries "as transparent as between Switzerland and France".

Then, the Georgian president raised the issue of a united Caucasus again. "Our concept is based on the idea of a united Caucasus. I am sure that all the conflicts that exist in the Caucasus are imposed by an imperial power, the main principle of which is "divide and conquer". It is in the interests of all the countries of the Caucasus and all peoples to unite and create a single economic zone in the region and a single political community in the future, and it will definitely materialize," Mikheil Saakashvili said.

The president of Georgia said that for Tbilisi it is of is vital importance to ensure that Armenia is "an independent, confident and strong country", hinting at the view of many analysts that Armenia is dependent on Russia.

What are the prospects of Georgian-Armenian relations in the light of bilateral and geopolitical conditions?

Problems in relations

Undoubtedly, the most important factor in relations between the two states is the separatist Armenian minority in Georgia, mainly inhabiting the Samtskhe-Javakheti region. The appearance of the Armenians in Georgia dates back to the beginning of the 18th century, when instead of Muslim refugees from Meskhetia, the tsarist government resettled masses of Armenians from Turkey here.

It is no accident that on 24 August 2009, Georgian President Saakashvili addressed ethnic Armenians in connection with an event in the village of Skhvilisi in Akhaltsikhe District to mark the 180th anniversary of the resettlement of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire. Paradoxically, the Georgian president's appeal, which was full of support for his citizens of Armenian origin, caused a negative reaction and irritation among the Armenians.

In general, the Armenians have masses of claims against the Georgian authorities. In early October, the chairman of the so-called "Javakhk diaspora of Russia", Agassi Arabyan, openly said during the programme "Caucasian policy with Andrey Yepifantsev" on Radio Voice of Russia that the goal of all Armenian public movements is to get at least autonomy within Georgia. From President Serzh Sargsyan, who stated the need to grant regional status to the Armenian language in Georgia, to a member of the initiative group of the Sardarapat movement and a veteran of the Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, Alek Yenigomshyan, who accuses the government of cowardice and lack of support for the Armenians of Javakheti, almost all the public-political forces and clerics of Armenia support Armenian separatism in Georgia.

Moreover, the Armenians are trying to take advantage of all opportunities to declare their claims. During French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to the South Caucasus, the "Coordinating Council for Protection of the Rights of Javakheti Armenians" sent him a letter accusing Tbilisi of violating its international obligations on human rights. The letter also touched upon the release of Vaag Chakhalyan, the so-called leader of the young Armenians in Georgia, who was convicted in 2008 for possession of weapons and organization of mass rallies of defiance.

In addition to the situation in Samtskhe-Javakheti, problems of a historical and spiritual nature between Georgia and Armenia, which also originate in the 19th century, are also important as well. Discussions about temples and chronicles between Georgian and Armenian scientists developed rapidly during the Soviet period at the level of science academies of the two republics. After independence, the Armenians noted the "Georgianisation" of 65 Armenian and 6 restored Catholic churches in Georgia. The scientific circles of Armenia accused Georgia of "ethnic genocide". In turn, Georgia explained the Armenian accusations as preparing the ground for future political demands. As history showed, the fears of the Georgian side were not unfounded.

This summer, Armenian Patriarch Garegin II visited Georgia to discuss the question of "returning Armenian churches in Georgia" and the legal status of the Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church. During his visit, he visited Samtskhe-Javakheti, and speaking to people, asked them to make every effort to preserve Armenian identity. It was a historic visit not only because an Armenian patriarch visited Javakheti for the first time and so openly supported the Armenians, but also because during the negotiations with Georgian Orthodox Church Patriarch Ilia II, he behaved in a way that was unbecoming of his rank. In a video posted on the web later, you can see Garegin II treating his interlocutor with unwanted familiarity despite the latter's advanced age and slapping him on the knee. Perhaps, this was the reason the Patriarch of Georgia refused to visit Yerevan to attend a meeting of the Presidium of the Interreligious Council of the CIS, where he did not send even a congratulatory letter. Despite all this, the head of the Armenian Church achieved his goal, because in July of the same year, the Georgian parliament adopted amendments to the Civil Code in three readings, allowing religious organizations to register as "legal entities of public law". Contrary to the statement of the Georgian Church that granting the Armenian Church the same status as it has is contrary to the interests of the state and that in Armenia itself, there can be no talk of returning Georgian churches, Tbilisi decided to meet Armenia halfway. But apparently, that did not satisfy the Armenians. Growing Georgiaphobia can be felt in Armenian society each passing day.

Geopolitics

The rapprochement between Yerevan and Tbilisi is also prevented by the geopolitical realities of our region. To date, Armenia, according to Russian officials, is an "outpost" of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus. The country's energy, banking, steel and construction sectors, communications and even management of the Armenian railway are under the control of Russian enterprises. Armenia's borders with Iran and Turkey are guarded by the Russian military. The 102nd Russian military base is probably the only base in the world paid not by its actual owner, i.e. Moscow, but by the host country - Armenia.

Georgia, by contrast, has chosen the path of European integration and a policy of rapprochement with NATO, hoping to gain full membership in this organization in the future. The main problem in this country is the restoration of territorial integrity. And the main barrier here is the Russian presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In both unrecognized regions, there is a strong Armenian diaspora, which has supported anti-Georgian sentiment since the very beginning. Moreover, the Armenians in Abkhazia are the second largest group after the Abkhazians. We should also note the atrocities committed by Armenians against the Georgians during the separatist Georgian-Abkhaz war in the early 1990s. The "Battalion of Bagramyan", which consisted of Abkhazian Armenians, excelled in special cruelty against the civilian Georgian population.

In addition to this, the registration of the organization "Javakhk Diaspora" in Russia and statements by many Russian experts in favour of secession or autonomy for Samtskhe-Javakheti prompt Georgia to be even more cautious in dealing with this "outpost" of Russia.

Unlike Armenia, Georgia actively participates in all regional projects and is an integral part of energy corridors. To date, the main trading and economic partners of Georgia are Azerbaijan and Turkey. As everyone knows, Armenia's borders with them are closed because of the military aggression against Azerbaijan and its territorial claims against Turkey. Turkey is Georgia's way out to the Western world, while Azerbaijan is a strategic and sometimes essential partner. The Azerbaijani population of Georgia, which is 3 times larger than the Armenian population, is the backbone of the Georgian state and plays an increasingly important role in building a strong and independent Georgia.

Thus, the rapprochement between Armenia and Georgia is possible only in a very limited way because of the above circumstances. Taking President Saakashvili's statement as a declaration of good will, on the other hand, his initiative on Caucasian unity can be regarded as a kind of response to Putin's project of a Eurasian Union. It is unlikely that the Georgian president has special illusions about the strategic ally of Russia (with which Georgia is actually in a state of war) - Armenia, which has also occupied the territory of Tbilisi's close ally - Azerbaijan. At the same time, how important are economic benefits for Georgia from closer relations with Armenia, which is suffocating in the isolation into which it has driven itself?