ARAB SPRING: ISLAM IS FLOURISHING

The Arab world continues to be shaken. While in Libya, where the end of the war has been announced, is trying to build a life after Gaddafi (which, incidentally, can be very difficult in view of Berber protests and attacks on Prime Minister Abdurrahim al-Kib), a number of "Arab Spring" countries are undergoing important political changes. They all have a strikingly similar tendency - Islamists acquire a certain share of political power. It is already making itself felt not only on the example of the same Libya, the new leadership of which does not hide its ideological orientation, but also in countries such as Tunisia, Morocco, Yemen and Egypt.

Ennahda in Tunisia and JDP in Morocco

The so-called moderate Islamists have achieved serious success in the parliamentary elections in Tunisia and Morocco.

In Tunisia, free elections to the Constituent Assembly took place on 23 October for the first time since the overthrow of President Ben Ali. According to their results, the Islamist party Ennahda (Revival) gained more than 41 per cent of the vote, getting 90 out of the 217 seats. As a result, together with the Republican Congress and Al-Takattul Party, it formed a coalition cabinet headed by the general secretary of Ennahda, Hamadi Jebali.

Following Tunisia, Islamists celebrated victory in Morocco. According to preliminary reports, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party (the name, apparently, does not coincide with the name of Turkey's ruling party by chance) won most seats in the 26 November elections to the kingdom's House of Representatives (the first parliamentary elections after the anti-government protests of spring 2011, under the influence of which King of Morocco Muhammad agreed to conduct democratic reforms). The secretary-general of the Islamist party, Abdelilah Benkiran, announced a "massive victory" which "imposes a great responsibility on us".

Under the new Constitution of Morocco, adopted at the request of the protesting population inspired by the success of "Arab revolutions" in other countries, the king shall appoint a representative of the party, which gains the majority in the elections, as prime minister. There is no doubt that it is a representative of the Justice and Development Party who will be appointed new prime minister in Morocco.

Contrary to many expectations, no major geopolitical shifts are expected as a result of the victory of the Islamists in the parliamentary elections in Tunisia and Morocco. In any case, the West reacted to the success of moderate clerics in a quiet and even friendly way. The reason for such a benevolent attitude by the US and Europe to the Islamists' rise to power in the leading countries of North Africa should be sought in the position of the winning parties themselves.

Both Ennahda and the Moroccan Justice and Development Party have expressed their intention to make due efforts to develop democracy. As regards foreign policy, the leaders of Ennahda pledged to adhere to all international obligations of Tunisia. The leader of the Moroccan Islamists, Benkiran, openly urged the West "not to fear the JDP", since it stands for "permanent and more balanced relations with the United States and the European Union".

The fact that both the Tunisian and Moroccan Islamists, who achieved success in the elections and express their intention to continue to democratize their countries, also confirm their commitment to the values of Islam clearly indicates the beginning of a new era in the history of the Arab East. This experience seems to have been adopted in one more important country of Maghreb - Egypt.

Egypt is raging again

Against the backdrop of continuing protests against the military leadership in Egypt, the first stage of parliamentary elections has begun. They are being held for the first time since the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011. Given that the election is strongly stretched in time (the second and third rounds are scheduled for 14 December and 3 January), the final formation of the new parliament will not take place any time soon. During this time, a lot of changes can happen in the political life of Egypt.

Tahrir Square has been raging again for several weeks. The protesters, unhappy with the policy of the Supreme Military Council, are demanding an end to the rule of the generals. This means that the revolutionary euphoria that gripped the "land of the pyramids" after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak is now a thing of the past. The inability of the military, led by the 76-year old Field Marshal Muhammad Huseyn Tantawi, to solve the pressing economic problems, ensure a speedy transition to democracy, fight corruption and improve the lives of ordinary citizens - i.e. to perform the tasks that the Egyptian revolution had set itself - only convinced the Egyptians that the authorities have, in essence, remained the same. The military command, surrendering Mubarak nine months ago, remained in power and became almost a classic military junta.

It is no accident that instead of the slogan "The people and the army go hand in hand", voiced by the demonstrators during the overthrow of Mubarak's dictatorship, there is now another slogan at Tahrir Square - "Down with the Supreme Military Council!". The protesters are demanding that it be replaced with a civilian government that has no connections with the past regime and the security forces be radically reformed and placed under civilian control. However, the Military Council is not going to leave, at least for now. Its crackdown to suppress the second wave of the revolution led to the deaths of more than 40 protesters.

Despite the unrest, the military leadership decided not to postpone the parliamentary elections and confirmed its intention to hold presidential elections by July 2012. At the same time, the military made a major concession to the demonstrators on a fundamental issue, refusing to "promote" the provision on the dominant role of the army in the political system in the text of the new Constitution. In addition, the Supreme Military Council formed a new government, instructing it to ensure a stable transition to civilian rule. The new Egyptian prime minister is now Kamal al-Ganzuri, a 78-year-old politician, who held this position in 1996-1999. However, this fact clearly played against al-Ganzuri in the eyes of the demonstrators, who, referring to the premiere's links with the Mubarak regime, claim that he cannot represent the Egyptian youth - the driving force of the revolution. While Kamal al-Ganzuri is engaged in consultations on the formation of the future cabinet, 16 political parties and associations involved in the movement at Tahrir Square announced the formation of their own "national salvation" government. Muhammad El-Baradei, Nobel Prize winner and former head of the IAEA, was appointed its leader.

Meanwhile, Kamal al-Ganzuri asked the protesters to give his government two months to fulfil all their demands. The new prime minister even initiated the establishment of an Advisory Board, which will include El-Baradei and other potential candidates for the presidency. At the same time, the head of the Supreme Military Council, Field Marshal Tantawi, called on the likely opposition presidential candidates to support the new prime minister. He also called the pressure on the military authorities unacceptable and said that the armed forces will resist all conspiracies and attempts to undermine the statehood of Egypt.

Meanwhile, Tahrir Square, like in the days of the overthrow of Mubarak, represents a diverse mass - from pro-Western liberals to Muslim Brotherhood - united mainly by their opposition to the current regime. This is the reason for various tactical moves by various protesting parties at the time of the parliamentary elections. For example, Muslim Brotherhood, who actively participated in recent clashes with the police, somewhat slowed their revolutionary rhetoric after a large part of Tahrir began to call for the election to be postponed. Muslim Brotherhood, who are standing in the elections under the name of the Freedom and Justice Party, hope for success in the polls, which will give them the opportunity to participate directly in the future distribution of political power in Egypt.

Yemen breakthrough and Syria deadlock

Meanwhile, the events in other parts of the huge Arab area are no less interesting. In the south of the Arabian Peninsula, a drastic change occurred in the course of the Yemeni revolution. After months of confrontation with the opposition, the 69-year-old president of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who ruled for 33 years, stepped down. He resigned in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

On 23 November, Saleh and Yemeni opposition leaders signed in Riyadh an agreement on the handover of power, according to which presidential powers were transferred to Vice President Abd al-Rab Mansur al-Hadi. The latter signed a decree on holding presidential elections in Yemen on 21 February 2012. Free presidential elections in Yemen are part of the plan of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf to resolve the political crisis in the poorest country of the Arab world. The agreement also provides for the formation of a coalition government of national unity in which the opposition will share seats with the ruling party, the General People's Congress, on an equitable basis.

According to the vice-president's decree, the government is headed by a leader of the opposition - Socialist Muhammad Salem Basindwa (in 1993-1994, he served as foreign minister, but later left the ruling party and began to criticize Saleh's policy). Now he will actually run the country before the presidential election.

While everything has more or less "settled down" in the south of the Arab world (at least in the near future), in the north, in the heart of Mesopotamia, the situation continues to worsen in Syria. Undoubtedly, this part of the Arab revolution will be crucial for those who are more or less able to determine its fate.

The suppression of anti-government protests by Damascus, which has already killed 3.5 thousand people, has led to the further isolation of Syria, whose position in the international arena in recent years has not been particularly encouraging because of friendship between Damascus and Tehran. However, as the League of Arab States (LAS) joined the West's anti-Syrian campaign, Syria found itself almost in a blockade. The LAS announced a package of tough sanctions against Damascus (freezing the assets of the Syrian government, severing relations with the country's Central Bank and imposing a ban on the entry of representatives of the Syrian authorities into any Arab country) after the expiry of the League's ultimatum to the Syrian authorities. According to it, Damascus was to release political prisoners, begin a dialogue with the opposition and provide foreign journalists, human rights activists and representatives of the Arab League with the opportunity to visit the country to assess the situation.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallim said that the decision of the League of Arab States to impose sanctions against his country blocks the way to resolving the crisis. According to Damascus, the LAS decision violates the charter of the organization and demonstrates its desire to curry favour with the West.

Meanwhile, all anti-Syrian forces are clearly trying to prepare the ground for a possible invasion of this country. One of the initiatives in this direction was the French proposal to create humanitarian corridors in Syria to assist the local population. According to French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, if the international community fails to persuade Syria to create such corridors by itself, it is possible that armed observers will be sent to the country to ensure the safety of humanitarian workers. In addition, Paris believes that the main humanitarian corridor for the victims of the crackdown by the Syrian regime should be created in Turkey, which has an 800-kilometre border with Syria.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Jordan are considering creating "security zones" in northern and southern Syria, where the Syrian military and security forces will be denied access. According to Ankara's plan, opposition members and defectors from the Syrian army, fighting against the regime of Bashar al-Assad, can hide here.

The only question is what logic and reality the revolutionary processes in the Arab world are subject to. And if we consider that all these events will surely be accompanied by the strengthening of the positions of Islamist forces, and in some countries, by their full rise to power, the following issue is becoming more and more interesting. Is the "Arab Spring" only an expression of the deep-seated aspirations of the Arab community, or are all these revolutions being manipulated by the West in order to prevent the further radicalization of the Arab world, which is why they fully support the so-called moderate Islamists as a counterweight to extremist Islamists?