SERZH SARGSYAN IN SEARCH OF A TEAM

Armenia's political establishment is still suffering from a fever. The country has been shaken by a series of high-profile resignations: the mayor of Yerevan, Karen Karapetyan, who took charge of the city authorities about a year ago, left his post; Parliament Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan was dismissed; Serzh Sargsyan's son-in-law Mikhael Minasyan submitted his resignation as first deputy chief of the presidential administration; Police Chief Alik Sargsyan and an employee of the Armenian president's Protocol Department, Aram Kandayan (Kndo), were fired. Media reports suggest that Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Territorial Administration Armen Gevorkyan also resigned, but his press secretary Zoya Barsegyan flatly denied the news. Meanwhile, the Armenian media predict new reshuffles and resignations. In particular, experts promise that Alik Sargsyan, who was fired as chief of police, will be appointed deputy head of the presidential administration, while Deputy Defence Minister Vladimir Gasparyan will become chief of police. And after the latter's appointment, the chief of the police department of Yerevan's Zvartnots airport, Police Colonel Karen Babayan, known as Sheriff, as well as the chief of the Yerevan City Police Department, Armen Hakobyan, known as Gleb, who gained fame during the dispersal of opposition rallies, submitted their resignations. It is not yet clear who will replace Gasparyan in the Defence Ministry, but Armenians predicts again that the chief of staff of the Armed Forces, Yuriy Khachaturov, will soon be removed from office. He will be replaced by Deputy Defence Minister Alik Mirzabekyan.

Given the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia, it is not too difficult to find an explanation for such an impressive array of resignations. According to many experts, the victory of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia in the upcoming parliamentary elections and the "purity" of this victory raise serious doubts. The authorities ignore the studies of international experts showing that only the economy on the island of Madagascar is worse than in Armenia. A country's economic position affects the outcome of elections, as citizens most often base their "vote" on their wallets rather than on vigorous official press releases. The situation in foreign policy is no better. Azerbaijan's election to the UN Security Council, which caused a state of near shock in Armenia, is the last and perhaps the most striking, but not the only, example of this kind. The widely publicized military parade in honour of the 20th anniversary of Armenia's independence ended in a resounding failure. Emigration from the country has reached the scale of a national catastrophe. In short, the "clear" victory of the ruling party in the elections is very, very problematic.

A few weeks ago, the first signs emerged that the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) is ready to use administrative resources, which they understand in their own way, to win the elections. More precisely, according to the opposition media, in Armenia, where a census has started, an order has been issued to increase the population to at least three million and then to include all these "dead souls" on the voter lists. But such a "shuffling of the pack" risks an outburst of indignation in the opposition environment and the development of events according to the "Iranian" scenario or even with a repeat of the 1-2 March 2008 tragedy. The regular large rallies of the leading opposition force in Armenia - the Armenian National Congress - show that the likelihood of this should not be underestimated. In such circumstances, it is logical to expect Serzh Sargsyan to take populist steps and strengthen his own ruling "team", where reshuffles and resignations are the most "visible" and logical "tool".

The list of "resignations" includes figures with great political clout and ability to influence the situation. The official of the president's protocol service, Kandayan, also known as "Kndo" or "Gndo", does not belong to the political "heavyweights" at first glance. In Armenia, many linked his resignation to an incident that occurred at the end of last year. In revenge for the fact that officials of Armenia's protocol service did not allow his wife to sit next to the president of Armenia during Placido Domingo's concert, the then mayor of Yerevan, Gagik Beglaryan, had Kandayan kidnapped, brought to the Metax factory and beaten up. Soon Beglaryan was dismissed. Now, Kandayan has also said goodbye to his post. Officially, the reason was some blunder made by Kandayan during one of Serzh Sargsyan's foreign visits. But it is also possible that Serzh Sargsyan is trying to get rid of the most scandalous figures ahead of the elections. More far-sighted experts recall that at one time Gagik Beglaryan was defeated in parliamentary elections by none other than the father of the beaten "Kndo", so the unimportant "protocol man" is quite likely a successor to a very influential family.

It is also possible that not all these resignations have the same explanation. In particular, there are persistent rumours in Armenia that now the former mayor of Yerevan, Karen Karapetyan, who headed ArmRosGazprom earlier, intends to move to the post of deputy head of the Russian super-monopoly. Officially, this information has not been confirmed, but it has not been denied either.

The resignation of the "chief policeman", Alik Sargsyan, was predicted in Armenia a long time ago, especially against the background of understandable criticism of the state of affairs in the law-enforcement agencies, and to a large extent, his removal from office may be even a concession to public opinion. At the same time, rumours are circulating in Yerevan that the former chief policeman will head the presidential administration.

Yet Hovik Abrahamyan's resignation drew the most attention from the political establishment and pundits in Armenia. According to the official theory, he left his post as speaker of parliament to lead the campaign team of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia. However, this theory is unlikely to convince citizens of Yerevan that there is no political motivation behind Abrahamyan's resignation. Either way, many experts in their comments draw attention to the fact that Hovik Abrahamyan is considered a man very close to former President Robert Kocharyan. It is the same Kocharyan who so openly demonstrates his desire to return to power that the "quiet rivalry" between Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan is the main theme of political commentaries, gossip and sensational "leaks" in Armenia. Moreover, experts believe that it is Kocharyan who is Serzh Sargsyan's most dangerous rival and, considering the "pre-election" balance of power in Armenia, they first talk about rivalry between Sargsyan and Kocharyan rather than his possible competition with Levon Ter-Petrosyan or the right-wing opposition represented by the Dashnaks and the Heritage Party.

Commenting on the current series of resignations, Armenian media, particularly Zhamanak newspaper, clearly indicate that ahead of the elections, there was a real conspiracy in the government circles to remove Serzh Sargsyan and return Robert Kocharyan. This plot was uncovered, and its leading figures were removed from government structures. One of the "conspirators" was the speaker of parliament.    

It is still an open question whether Serzh Sargsyan succeeded in "neutralizing" the clout of his predecessor. First, Sargsyan himself recently was a member of Robert Kocharyan's team. Both politicians represent one and the same Karabakh clan, and in such circumstances, it will be much more difficult for Sargsyan to divide the members of his "inner circle" into "loyal" and "dangerous" ones and to distinguish Kocharyan's supporters among them rather than to "purge" supporters of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, as was the case after the tragic 1-2 March events.

Secondly, rivalry between Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan objectively weakens the ruling "Karabakh clan", which inspires persistent hostility among residents of Armenia anyway. And it is hardly a coincidence that just before the elections, Sargsyan is trying to win over Yerevan citizens. In any case, this is the only explanation for the persistent rumours that Manvel Grigoryan, a retired general and head of Yerkrapah - an organization that unites veterans of the Karabakh war - has been included on the electoral ticket of the Republican Party of Armenia. Thus - at least in theory - the ruling "team" will try to solve several problems. Manvel

Grigoryan can attract "Yerevan" votes and not allow them to completely "flow" into the camp of the leading opposition force - Levon Ter-Petrosyan's Armenian National Congress, which holds regular rallies in Yerevan and accuses the government of all sins from the betrayal of Karabakh to corruption. Among veterans of the Karabakh war, individuals such as Zhirayr Sefilyan and his associates in the Sardarapat group, who are in firm opposition to the government, are becoming increasingly popular. Finally, we must not forget that Yerkrapah is a "force component". It is also significant that a possible tool to return Robert Kocharyan to power in Armenia is not the ruling Republican Party, but the "junior coalition partner" - the Prosperous Armenia party led by the "vodka oligarch" Gagik Tsarukyan.

The influence of the "Russian factor" on the political balance of power in Armenia can also be hard to predict. Moscow controls almost all important sectors of the economy in Armenia - transport, infrastructure, cell communications and a large part of the law-enforcement agencies, primarily the external borders and the Armenian army. Therefore, it has significant leverage over the political situation and can easily put pressure on the ruling "team". And there are possible surprises as well. For example, among a considerable part of professionals there is growing belief that Moscow has opted for Robert Kocharyan as a "tough leader" or rather dictator capable of "keeping the situation" in Armenia under control, while Serzh Sargsyan, according to Russian experts, is not capable of solving such a problem. The defeat of the "Karabakh clan" essentially implies that pro-Western forces represented by the Armenian National Congress will come to power. Clearly, Russia is not interested in losing its "outpost".

With Armenia's current dependence on Russia, the political reshuffling in Moscow may have an unpredictable reflection in Yerevan. It is not only because of the comeback of Vladimir Putin in Moscow, who is believed to put his stake on Robert Kocharyan. Disputes with Kudrin, the "Sechin factor", the intensifying conflict between financial and political groups oriented towards the energy sector and defence industry - all this shapes a tight and confusing web in Moscow itself. In this regard, the resignation of the mayor of Yerevan, the former head of ArmRosGazprom, Karen Karapetyan, from his post as governor of the city is, of course, an attempt to neutralize the possible effect of the "Russian", i.e. "Putin" factor. In any case, in real terms, it is hardly possible, even in theory, to reduce the influence of Moscow on the situation in Armenia in the short term.

Experts do not rule out resignations in the Foreign Ministry of Armenia. A speech by Vahan Hovhannisyan, a leader of the Dashnaks, is significant enough in this sense. He criticized Armenian diplomacy because Yerevan allowed Azerbaijan to be elected to the UN Security Council. He rightly said that it is a serious setback for Armenian diplomacy and its consequences will make themselves felt: Azerbaijan will definitely submit to the UN Security Council a document that will "hit Armenian diplomacy on the head".

The Dashnaks have systematically attacked the Armenian Foreign Ministry since the signing of the Zurich protocols with Turkey. They followed the political elite of the diaspora in declaring the protocols unacceptable. The fall in Armenia's international prestige inevitably leads to an increase in its foreign policy defeats, giving more cause for harsh criticism of the Foreign Ministry. Experts say the reason for the resignation of Vardan Oskanyan, the predecessor of the present Armenian foreign minister, was also Azerbaijan's success at the UN - the UN General Assembly resolution on the occupied territories. The Dashnaks, who are in opposition to the government, continue to attempt to "score points" through ultra-nationalist rhetoric, and Serzh Sargsyan cannot ignore criticism from this side.

The most important thing in this case is that due to the catastrophic decline in the government's authority and taking into account the "Kocharyan factor", Sargsyan risks becoming a "president without a team" ahead of the elections. Many of its members are already analysing the situation and assessing the chances of guaranteeing a more or less secure future for themselves in Robert Kocharyan's camp to avoid going down together with Serzh Azatovich.

Anyway, many diplomatic missions in Armenia, according to the Yerevan media, have already instructed their employees to ring up the Armenian authorities every morning to find out which of the ministers is still in office and which one has already been fired. It is obvious that as the parliamentary and presidential elections approach, political tensions in Armenia will increase. Given the political traditions of this country, we should expect not only open rivalry for the votes, but also an increasing "power struggle", conspiracies and, possibly, even the use of terrorist levers, as was the case in the recent past.