WEAKENING REGIONAL CLOUT

Against the background of Turkey's deteriorating relations with Syria and Israel, as well as the beginning of work on a new Turkish constitution, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), known more as a terrorist organization, has stepped up its activities.

The fact that formulations supported by the pro-Kurdish Party for Peace and Democracy were included in the text of Turkey's Basic Law nullified propaganda opportunities for separatism, and therefore, the terrorists are doing everything possible to sabotage the adoption of the new constitution. After all, if the new version of the Basic Law is adopted, broad cultural rights for ethnic minorities, including Kurds, will be officially guaranteed.

As a result, the PKK organized a series of bloody terrorist attacks. The greatest outcry was caused by the murder of 26 Turkish soldiers in province of Hakkari near the Iraqi border. The purpose of such attacks is simple - to provoke new ethnic conflicts in southeastern Turkey and force Turkish forces to organize long-term military operations in northern Iraq so that Iraqi Kurdish leaders change their neutral position on Ankara's fight against the PKK.

It's no secret that the PKK, which began its terrorist activities on 15 August 1984 with a shot fired by several students, has received support from outside over these years. And the recent bloody events have drawn attention to this factor again, since the terrorist act was one of the well-planned attacks since the formation of the PKK: 250 militants launched an attack in eight different locations at the same time.

The terrorists would not have been able to carry out such an elaborate operation without the support of professional instructors. It is possible that mercenaries were used to attack Turkish outposts for the first time. At the same time, it is simply impossible to believe that hundreds of terrorists could fight the Turkish military for hours and then quietly disappear in the north of Iraq. There is only one conclusion - some of the terrorists "vanished" among the local population and others were taken to Iraq by helicopters.

It is also noteworthy that the attack was launched immediately after Turkish President Abdullah Gul inspected border units. The head of state was in the same province of Cukurca accompanied by Chief of General Staff Necdet Ozel. Therefore, the attack has an especially tangible outcry.

Abdullah Gul himself was the first to speak about the attack. And his statement was the sharpest during his presidency: "Those who think that they can make our stage retreat with these attacks will see how severe our revenge will be. They will receive an adequate response. To solve this problem, we will do everything in our power. Those who help the terrorists will also get their just deserts," Gul said.

In turn, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan postponed his visit to Kazakhstan and held an emergency meeting with the heads of security agencies.

As a result of all this, tensions increased in Turkish society, and although the slogan of "blood for blood" and calls for the expulsion of ethnic Kurds immediately after the attack on a military post in Hakkari were foiled, there is a need for emergency measures that could "pacify" Turkish society and moderate the nationalists' zeal. The government gave the "green light" to a large-scale military operation in northern Iraq, where 22 battalions of 10 thousand soldiers were sent.

It is known that some areas of Istanbul, populated by ethnic Kurds, have been considered centres of "support for the PKK" for years, and the terrorists hoped that right after the bloody attack in Hakkari, Turkish nationalists would organize pogroms. That is, there is a clear change in the tactics of the PKK. Now the terrorists, who failed to receive the expected support from ethnic Kurds, are trying to play with the feelings of Turkish nationalists, seeking to start a civil war.

According to a report by the Turkish secret services, leaked to the media, the civil confrontation scenario in Turkey has long been prepared. According to the PKK's plan, an anti-Kurdish campaign will be launched in Istanbul, Ankara, Aydin, Manisa, Izmir, Bursa and Antalya. All this will cause ethnic Kurds, who once settled in large cities of Turkey, to become weary of psychological pressure and return to their abandoned villages.

At the same time, it was reportedly planned to commit terrorist acts in major Turkish cities, as evidenced by intelligence reports that over the past six months, up to 6 tons of plastic explosives have been ferried to western Turkey. Only a tenth of the deadly cargo was intercepted. In addition, according to the latest reports, the number of armed PKK militants has grown to 6,000 people, and about the same number of weapons has been handed out to persons sympathetic to the terrorists.

No matter if the press calls Mount Qandil in northern Iraq a centre of terrorists, the truth is that over the past two years, they have begun to actively invade the territory of Turkey. As a result, the Tunceli region has turned into a "new Qandil". Now the new symbol of the PKK is Mount Kato, located on the border between the provinces of Hakkari and Sirnak.

The important question is who trains the terrorists? In the PKK, there are people trained in the Turkish army, while some still hold important positions, facilitating the work of the terrorists. In addition, there are many people among the local population who support the PKK.

As for the latest attack in Hakkari, it is already known that PKK militants used the most modern weapons and had a clear tactic. The first assumption of the Turkish media was that the terrorists received support from instructors of the notorious US private security firm Blackwater, which remains in Iraq despite strong international criticism and continues to train Kurds in the north. It is well known that in Iraq there are still up to 15 thousand Blackwater mercenaries, who are helping to raise the professional level of the "peshmerga" - Kurdish military units.

In addition, according to the Turkish media, PKK members are armed with at least four Israeli-made Heron drones, which they use to fly around Mount Qandil. These drones have the ability to delay signals sent from similar devices of the enemy. That is, information from Turkish army drones was blocked, which allowed PKK members to manoeuvre.

Ankara needs the support of the international community, especially neighbouring countries as never before. The position of Azerbaijan, which has repeatedly expressed support for Ankara's steps to curb the activities of the PKK, is well known and has been articulated at the highest level. This position was reflected in a letter of condolences from President Ilham Aliyev in connection with Turkish soldiers' deaths in Hakkari and in the Azerbaijani head of state's speech at a joint press conference with the Turkish prime minister in Izmir on 25 October. "In the fight against terror and terrorists, Azerbaijan is always with Turkey, and we support and defend all the actions of Turkey," Aliyev said.

Tehran also expressed a clear position, stating its readiness to support any anti-terrorist initiatives of Turkey. It is no accident that almost immediately after the events in Hakkari, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi paid an unplanned visit to Turkey. He called the Kurdish rebels a "common problem" and promised to work together to "completely destroy ... the terrorist threat".

Indeed, the Turkish army has repeatedly held cross-border operations in northern Iraq. Prior to that, it invaded the neighbouring territory in February 2008, killing 240 Kurdish militants. The PKK suffered the greatest losses during an operation carried out from May to July 1997: 2,370 fighters were eliminated at that time. But the Turkish army also suffered big losses - 114 killed. And it turned out that the PKK problem cannot be eliminated only with military operations. Nor did dozens of air strikes carried out by the Turkish air force in Northern Iraq in August and September help to eliminate the problem. More than 300 militants were eliminated at the time.

Given this, Ankara has also made efforts to establish dialogue with the PKK. According to information leaked to the media, which was subsequently confirmed at the official level, officials of Turkey's National Intelligence Agency (MIT) have had regular contacts with terrorist leaders since 2006. Erdogan's position during that period was not so strong for the government to take this step unilaterally without the support of the General Staff. The authorities were well aware that the possible disclosure of information about the negotiations with the terrorists could deal a painful blow to the government's rating, especially as Turkey's Constitutional Court was considering a complete ban on the ruling Justice and Development Party at the time. In any case, regardless of whether there was support from the General Staff or not, the negotiations with the terrorists reached an impasse, and the government received a blow to its image.

Anyway, the latest bloody actions on the border with Iraq are unlikely to change the dynamics of developments in Turkey. This is evidenced by sharp statements by officials in Ankara and the reaction of Turkish society. The only thing that the terrorists or, perhaps, third forces can get is stronger international pressure on Ankara and weakening of its clout in the region. That is, the PKK is trying to do everything possible to divert the Turkish government's attention towards domestic issues.