IRAN ON RADAR

In early September, Turkey, to the surprise of many, expressed willingness to host an early warning radar system as part of NATO's ballistic missile defence (BMD). To the displeasure of Moscow and Tehran, Ankara announced that the talks were in the final phase and the deployment of these missile defence elements would contribute to the strengthening of the defence capability of NATO and Turkey. Turkey's Foreign Ministry spokesman Selcuk Unal made it clear that the issue had already been agreed and in the near future, the parties would proceed to work on the technical implementation of the project.

After Moscow threatened to deploy Iskander complexes in Kaliningrad, Washington chose not to go for an open confrontation with Russia and refused to deploy a third missile defence ring in the Czech Republic and Poland. Then, Bulgaria was discussed as a potential zone for the deployment of the radar system. It was long thought that the early warning radar system for European BMD would be deployed there. Sofia also did everything to get the system, viewing it as a way for closer rapprochement with the West, but its hopes were dashed. Preference was given to Ankara. And it has emerged that the radar will be commissioned in the coming months.

It is worth noting that the agreement was reached contrary to the statements of the Turkish authorities that Iran should not be considered a major threat that merited a European missile defence system.

Ankara's decision was immediately welcomed by the head of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen.  "This step is a critical contribution from Turkey to the Alliance's overall defence against current and emerging ballistic missile threats and will significantly contribute to NATO's capability to provide protection to its European territory populations and forces against the growing threat posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles," the secretary general of the Alliance said.

NATO argues that European BMD should protect member states of the bloc from possible missile attacks from Iran. The deployment of the radar and interceptor missiles will repel regional ballistic missile threats to Europe.

The first stage of the European missile defence system should be completed by 2018. By that time, mobile missile systems capable of intercepting medium and short-range missiles should be deployed in several countries of south and eastern Europe (for the time being, it is Poland and Romania). In the second stage - by 2020 - the US plans to create in Europe a system capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The radar, which will be deployed in Turkey, is a mobile marine radar detection system. The X-band AN/TPY-2 radar system, which the US has made available to NATO, will be able to track missile launches throughout Iran. In Turkey, Iranian missiles will be clearly visible - the radar can detect their launch in the direction of Europe literally in the first few seconds. At such a speed, Aegis interceptor missiles located in Romania will have a better chance of hitting the target. The radar will operate in conjunction with US Navy ships equipped with the Aegis multifunctional combat information and control system, which will be on permanent duty in the eastern Mediterranean within the European BMD system that is being created.

In Turkey, the key element of missile defence will be located in the southeast, where the Turkish army has been fighting members of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for almost 30 years.

The USA has also deployed the AN/TPY-2 complex in Japan to defend the country from a possible missile attack from North Korea.

From the very outset, Moscow expressed concern about US and NATO plans to deploy a missile defence system close to Russian borders. The Kremlin believes that this will break the existing strategic nuclear balance between the US and Russia, and therefore, poses a potential threat to Russia.

However, at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November 2010, the decision was made to create a European BMD system. It is true that due to Ankara's close ties with Tehran, the agreed document does not say that the threat is coming from Iran.

Meanwhile, Russia proposed a different option to ensure European security. The idea was to build a "sectoral BMD system", where each country is responsible for its own sector. Moscow was ready to take responsibility not only for Russian territory, but also to cover Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with an anti-missile umbrella. The issue was about sharing the use of the Qabala radar station in Azerbaijan with NATO. But last summer, NATO rejected these ideas.

In light of recent realities, the Russian ambassador to the alliance, Dmitriy Rogozin, said that Moscow does not consider the decision on the deployment of early warning radar systems in Turkey a serious threat to its national security. After all, by and large, Russia will be protected from this radar by several mountains, notably the Great Caucasus Range. So it will be impossible to monitor the launches of Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles with its help.

At the same time, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that the unlimited increase in the capacity of the European BMD system will result in Russia having to take retaliatory measures to protect its strategic potential. The minister said that "Moscow has not received guarantees that the US-NATO missile defence system will be directed against Russia".

It must be remembered that it was in Turkey that the US deployed Jupiter medium-range missiles in 1961, and placed major cities in the western part of the Soviet Union, including Moscow, under a nuclear threat. As a deterrent, the Soviet Union deployed R-12 missiles in Cuba, which were then spotted by a U-2 US spy plane. These events marked the beginning of the Cuban missile crisis, which nearly led to a nuclear war between the superpowers.

But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to dispel the fears of Moscow and Tehran. He said that the installation of the European BMD radar system in Turkey was an important step for the region. "Installing the radar will not cause problems for Turkey," the prime minister said, noting that fears about a possible deterioration of relations between Turkey and neighbouring countries are a "common, shady business" and there will be no negative effect from the deployment of the radar system.

In turn, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the missile defence system should not be directed against any country.

However, as expected, these assurances do not reassure Tehran, which voiced sharp criticism of Turkey's regional policy. Iran immediately made it clear that the presence of a NATO radar system in Turkey will become a destabilizing factor in the region.

"If Turkey is to host the European BMD radar, it should not hope that Iran will help them in the struggle against the PKK terrorist organization," said the deputy chairman of the national security and foreign policy committee of the Iranian Majlis, Esma'il Kowsari.

"We must bear in mind that this step by Turkey will create an atmosphere of distrust in the Middle East. The Turks are Muslims, and they strive to establish close relations with Muslim countries," an official representative of Iran said.

It is interesting that less than a week after Ankara announced its intention to host a missile defence system, Iran held offensive military exercises for the first time in 30 years. During the exercises, which lasted for 10 days, air-to-air and air-to-surface missiles were tested.

Ironically, a number of US senators spoke out against the deployment of the missile defence radar system in Turkey. In a letter to Clinton, a group of Republican senators, including Jon Kyl and Mark Kirk, stressed that they did not like the conditions put forward by Turkey, in particular, the requirement not to share data from the radar with Israel. It is not known whether Washington accepted Ankara's conditions, but many experts considered Ankara's position on the European BDM issue, to say the least, "incomprehensible".

On the one hand, Turkey is in confrontation with Tel Aviv, and on the other, is helping the West to deploy radar systems, which will help protect Israel from Iran. Indeed, even though it is blocking Israel's access to information from the European BMD radar on its territory, Turkey is unlikely to prevent an exchange of information between Washington and Tel Aviv, which is considered the main US ally in the Middle East.

Ankara likely chose the lesser of two evils, seeing a potential threat in the east rather than the south.