BONE OF CONTENTION

Relations between Turkey and Israel have come to a critical point - the final rupture of bilateral diplomatic relations and armed confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv in the Middle East conflict region are both possible.

Palmer's report and "Operation Barbarossa"

The crisis in Turkish-Israeli relations has come to a head largely due to the publication of the report of the special UN commission investigating last year's tragic incident in the Mediterranean, which resulted in Israeli special forces killing nine Turkish rights campaigners who were members of the Freedom Flotilla. The commission considered the use of force by Israel "excessive and unreasonable", but admitted at the same time that the blockade of the Gaza Strip was lawful. In addition, the report rebuked Turkish officials for failure to do "more to warn members of the flotilla of potential risks and dissuade them from such actions". The report also demanded that Israel issue "a statement of regret" and pay compensation for casualties in the tragic incident.

Ankara refused to recognize the report of the UN commission chaired by Geoffrey Palmer, which, according to the Turkish side, was made up of politicians, not judges, and therefore, is "unenforceable". Moreover, the Turkish side hardened its position on the very question of ties with Israel. It froze its military cooperation with Tel Aviv and downgraded the level of diplomatic relations with Israel by expelling the Jewish ambassador and all the primary members of the Israeli diplomatic mission in Ankara. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara would not be restored until Israel apologized to Turkey for attacking the Mavi Marmara humanitarian ship, which was part of the Freedom Flotilla.

"Responsibility for this situation lies with the Israeli government. Without the implementation of our terms, relations between the two states cannot normalize. There is no way back. We will not leave Israeli crimes unpunished. It's time for Israel to pay for what they did and to finally stop believing that they can put themselves above the law. The heaviest price will be that Israel has lost our friendship," Davutoglu said.

Ankara also announced that it would actively oppose Israel's entry into NATO. In addition, Turkey is ready to put pressure on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), demanding sanctions against Israel (as international political circles believe that Israel has violated the Convention on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).

Now the plot thickens. Ankara expressed its intention to take Israel to the International Court of Justice in The Hague for blockading the Gaza Strip. In addition, Davutoglu said, Turkey intends to strengthen its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea to "protect freedom of navigation". That is to say from now on, Turkish naval ships will accompany flotillas seeking to break the naval blockade of Gaza.

In fact, it is an expansion of the Mediterranean Shield project, which has been implemented by Turkey since 2006 to guard the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. In this regard, it is called "Operation Barbarossa: Aegean Shield" (in honour of the famous Turkish admiral Hayreddin Barbarossa, who defeated the fleet of a European alliance in the middle of the 16th century). Within its framework, the Turkish navy will withdraw some of its forces from the Black and Marmara seas and send them to the eastern Mediterranean region, in particular, to the shores of Cyprus and Israel. The enhanced navy grouping will be covered from the air by war planes from air bases near the cities of Konya and Izmir. The last detail of the plan will be the permanent patrolling of Middle East waters by a Turkish flotilla consisting of four frigates and one supply vessel with a commando unit on board.

Cyprus, Armenians and Kurdish separatism

Cyprus has a presence in the confrontation unfolding between Turkey and Israel in the Mediterranean. This is no accident. The fact is that one of the reasons for a possible armed conflict between Israel and Turkey could be oil and gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean, which have become an object of Ankara's dispute not only with Tel Aviv, but also with Nicosia.

In September last year, Israel and the Republic of Cyprus signed an agreement on the division of the Mediterranean Sea in order to divide up territories for exploration and the production of oil and gas. Meanwhile, Israel has so far failed to sign similar agreements with Lebanon and Turkey.

Immediately after the conclusion of the Israel-Cyprus agreement, Turkey demanded its cancellation. Ankara's position is that the Israel-Cyprus agreement, in addition to its illegality in legal terms, violates the interests of Turkey and the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and harms the negotiations on a Cyprus settlement.

Meanwhile, the US company Noble Energy, which has received a licence to conduct exploration work in the Mediterranean Sea in the vicinity of Cyprus, discovered huge gas reserves and announced plans to begin drilling as early as 1 October. In this regard, Turkey, in conjunction with the launch of Barbarossa, began to put pressure on the Republic of Cyprus. Ankara made overt threats against Cyprus, demanding that Nicosia cancel the planned exploration of offshore gas fields in the Mediterranean. Turkish Minister for EU Affairs Egemen Bagis did not rule out the use of military force in order to prevent exploration off the coast of Cyprus. In other words, the Cyprus factor is an additional argument justifying the increased Turkish military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.

Thus, the situation in the region with the escalation of the Turkish-Israeli conflict is becoming increasingly explosive. And we cannot exclude the emergence of new factors threatening even greater aggravation of the eastern Mediterranean crisis. The Israeli media reported that in retaliation to Turkey, the Foreign Ministry has developed a plan under which Israel will sign a strategic alliance with Armenia and provide support for Kurdish separatists.

However, several well-known Israeli analysts believe that this information is implausible, at least, in its "Armenian" aspect. In particular, the deputy editor of the Israeli portal izrus.co.il, Alexander Goldenstein, finds it strange that support for the Armenians was allegedly mentioned by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who is considered one of the architects of bilateral relations with Azerbaijan, "and who, if not him, really understands that any backpedalling will harm the nearly 20 years of work in this field".

Meanwhile, it has emerged that a group of Armenian diplomats led by Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Kirakosyan have held negotiations with a senior Israeli Foreign Ministry official, Pinchas Avivi (former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, who is now in charge of relations with the countries of the CIS and Eastern Europe).

But despite this, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the beginning of the implementation of a Lieberman plan that provides for Israeli support for Armenia and Kurdish separatists. Not least because it will mean an irrevocable break with Turkey and Azerbaijan, which, of course, no dividends from manifestations of a pro-Armenian or Kurdish persuasion will be able to compensate the Jewish state.

Lieberman himself has already expressed serious doubts about the existence of a revenge plan for Ankara, though only in as far as it concerns support for Kurdish separatism. In an interview with Israeli television stations, the foreign minister stressed that "there is no question of assistance to the Kurdish PKK or contacts with this organization being on the agenda".

Confident Barack and the voice of America

Be that as it may, it is clear that the discord in Turkish-Israeli relations has gone too far and is fraught with unpredictable consequences for the entire Middle East and south European politics. Fuel to the fire is added by the fact that the Israeli side, even after the release of the UN Commission's report, sees no need to apologize to Turkey. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had every right to defend itself, and therefore saw no need to apologize for "the actions of soldiers attacked on board the Mavi Marmara ferry". However, he added that Israel regretted the loss of life and expressed confidence that the crisis in relations with Turkey would be overcome.

Remarkably, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak expressed confidence that the current confrontation between Israel and Turkey would soon end and "good relations between the two countries will return to the previous level". Even Avigdor Lieberman said he hoped to restore relations with Turkey.

Perhaps, this belief of the Israeli leaders is now the sole encouraging factor that leaves a chance for an early and peaceful normalization of Turkish-Israeli relations.

However, there is another factor that should objectively help to restore the partnership between Turkey and Israel. This is the United States, which is not happy about the hostility between a current and potential member of the Western military-political organization, especially during the heyday of the "Arab Spring", which makes the indispensable role of both Israel and Turkey even more prominent for the Middle Eastern interests of the US and Europe. Washington has already urged Ankara and Tel Aviv "to refrain from provocative actions and maintain a constructive and productive tone".