SYRIAN DIVIDE

The situation in Syriais reaching boiling point. The country, one of the key states of Arab civilization, plays an important part in the geopolitical configuration of the Middle East. Accordingly, the developments in Syria will be of great importance to the future of the "Arab Spring" and may lead to major change on a regional and global scale.

Violence not letting up 

Damascus continues to severely repress the opposition which is seeking the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad and the change of the ruling regime. The use of force by the Syrian authorities, according to the statements of human rights organizations, is leading to heavy casualties among the civilian population. More than 1,500 people are said to have been killed.

The greatest impact has been caused by government troops shooting on people in the city of Hama, which is considered one of the country's opposition centres. Although Damascus claims that the military operation in Hama was aimed at rebels backed by terrorist groups, the international community has largely condemned the use of force. Moreover, al-Assad'sdetractors, especially Western superpowers, have received ammunition to talk about the oppressive nature of the Syrian regime and, referring to heavy civilian casualties, to demand the departure of the Syrian president and the entire regime from the political scene.

Damascus is becoming increasingly isolated, as it strengthens its policy of thwarting the Syrian protests. The insurgency is one of the most important links in the Arab revolutionary movement that has spread to the entire Middle East since the beginning of this year.

The West is stepping up political pressure on al-Assad's regime. This pressuretakes the form of economic sanctions,on the one hand, and of talk in the international media and at the UN Security Council about the possibility of a military scenario on the other, coupled with the fact that the Syrian regime will repeat the fate of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. In any case, the ideological preparations of any scenario aimed at overthrowing the al-Assad regime havealready gained momentum.

"The Syrianauthorities are waging war against their own people," the US administration has been saying since the protests in the Arab Republic began. In the last couple of weeks, this thesis has assumed much more effective wording,demanding the resignation of Bashar al-Assad. "We do not consider his remaining in office to be important from the standpoint of American interests," the US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, openly says. At the same time, Washington launched a new package of sanctions against Syria, which aims to neutralize"key elements of financial and commercial infrastructure that supports Bashar al-Assad's crimes".This, above all, applies to Syria's largest state-owned bank,the Commercial Bank of Syria, its branch in Lebanon, the Syrian Lebanese Commercial Bank, as well as a leading Syrian mobile operator,Syriatel. Alongside the USA,the European Union has tightened sanctions against Damascus, freezing the assets of dozens of representatives of the Syrian regime and banning them from entering the EU.

Compared to the West's position, the Russian approach to the Syrian issue is very different. Although Moscow is urging Damascus to stop the violence and initiate political and socioeconomic transformation, it still believes that the international community should put pressure on the Syrian opposition to respond to the government's invitation to a dialogue on reforms. Russia also believes that "the Syrian opposition should dissociate itself from armed extremists and other radicals interested in provoking tension and repeating the Libyan scenario." Thus, Moscow is expressing its solidarity with Damascuson the presence of a terrorist element in the Syrian opposition. In addition, the Kremlin is making it clear that it will do everything possible to stop the UN Security Council passing a decision against Syria. This position, of course, stems from the geopolitical interests of Russia in the Middle East, but it is associated not only with Syria, a traditionalpartner and ally of Russia. According to Russia's representative to NATO,DmitriyRogozin, Syria is important to NATO as a foothold for a future war against Iran. The Russian diplomat believes that the condemnation of the Syrian regime for numerous violations of human rights is part of preparation for a military campaign against Syria, which "could be a logical completion of the military and information warfare carried out by some Western countries in North Africa". And since Syria is Iran's closest ally, Rogozin believes that "the noose around Iran's neck is tightening" and Russia is now afraid of "a full-scale war in the vast region".

Meanwhile, Syria's allied countries in the "vast region" have also takenan anti-Assad position. The diplomatic pressure on Damascushas been joined, in particular, by Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain andSaudi Arabia. "What is happening in Syria is unacceptable, because it has nothing to do with religion or morality," said Saudi King Abdullah. The demand to stop violence has also been made by the Arab League. The secretary-general of the Araborganization, Nabil el-Araby, has said that "the Syrian authorities should immediately cease all military operations against the civilian population".

This tactic by the greater part of the Arab community is not surprising. And this is due not only to the fact that Syria is controlled by a clan from the Alawiteminority, reluctant to share power with the Sunni majority, i.e. the Islamic movement which is strongest in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. An important factor provoking Arab resentment against al-Assad is Iran, or rather the alliance Damascus has with the mullocraticstate which is trying to play a leading role in the Islamic world and prompting rejection from much of it.

Meanwhile, the Western powers, which initiated closed-door consultations of the UN Security Council on the situation in Syria, have secured the condemnation of the "widespread human rights violations and the use of force against civilians by Syrian authorities". But, as any other defendant, the Syrian regime has been given the opportunity to acknowledge its guilt andgive up further actions or face the consequences. It is quite obvious that this was the aim of a diplomatic mission from Ankara which was intended to convince al-Assad to abandon power tactics.

"Black mark" for Bashar al-Assad

Turkish Foreign Minister AhmetDavutogluvisited Syria to "issue a serious warning"to al-Assad on the possible consequences of his policies. There are several reasons for Ankara's efforts. First, Turkey, a countrythat positions itself as a democratic state, cannot continue to be among the closest economic partners of Damascus if the Syrian regime carries on its repressive measures against its own people. Second, it is because of its democratic nature that Turkey appearsto have set a certain standard of a secular state in the eyes of the West and the Islamic world. The popularity of the Turkish model in the context of the "Arab spring" is not accidental. This makes it impossible for Ankara to cooperate with the Syrian regime which is preventing the renewal of the Arab world. Finally, Turkey is not interested in the Kurdish movement expanding in Syria, and will, therefore, not be left out of a possible military operation in the country. At the same time, Ankara takes into account the lessons of the military campaign in Iraq. Having opposed the invasion of the multinational force into Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Turkey refused to take part in the occupation of its territory, thusallowing the formation of a Kurdish autonomy and persecution of a Turkic people,the Turkmen who live in northern Iraq.

In addition, military clashes between the Syrian regime and the opposition mainly occur in areas bordering on Turkey. Turkeyhas accommodated thousands of Syrian refugees on its territory by setting up tent-camps for them. All this also compels Ankara to seek a solution to the crisis.

"We have informed Bashar al-Assad of our vision of the steps that can be taken to avoid the recurrence of events similar to those in the city of Hama. It is now important what actions will be taken by the Syrian leadership in the coming days,"Davutoglusaid at the end of talks with the president of Syria.

Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyipErdogan, for his part, expressed hope that the steps to reform Syria, which has been gripped by mass protests and armed clashes in the last five months,would be taken within the next 10-15 days. According to him, Ankara has sent Damascus "a clear message to stop the bloodshed".

However, judging by the continuing bloodshed in Syria, al-Assad has ignored Ankara's call. The Syrian president explains his actions by saying that there is an international conspiracy to split up his country and redraw the map of the region. Simultaneously, al-Assad emphasizes that he has already begun to carry out political reforms, bearing in mind, above all, the multiparty system. Moreover, in a meeting with an IBAS delegation (India, Brazil, South Africa), the Syrian president acknowledged that "security forces have made mistakes in breaking up demonstrations and the elimination of the disorder". However, al-Assad's opponents in the world would not be satisfied with a mere recognition of "mistakes", especially since blood has continued to be shed in Syria, while al-Assad has apparently received a "black mark".