HOT SUMMER FOR THE "ARAB SPRING"

The "Arab spring" has gradually transformed into a hot summer season. A whole host of Middle Eastern countries are on the threshold of major changes, which does not necessarily mean that the revolutions will be followed by stability, peace and quiet. Especially since the changes in the Arab countries are accompanied with bloodshed, which shows that it is not only the "people of Ishmael" who are ready to pay a high price to change Arab reality. 

Wounding Saleh 

Developments in the poorest country of the Arab world, Yemen, have entered a crucial stage. Anti-government protests demanding the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has been in power for over 30 years, have been ongoing for five months. Until recently, the regime had been consistently tightening its response to the opposition, justifying itself by saying that it is the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda that is behind the campaign to topple Saleh. A major stand-off occurred as a result of the bombardment by the Yemeni Air Force of Zinjibar, a town where antigovernment rebels are concentrated. Eyewitnesses say that the troops opened artillery fire not only on militants but also on residential quarters of the town with a population of 20,000 people.

The situation in Yemen started changing dramatically after the presidential compound in Sana'a came under artillery fire. President Saleh and other senior officials were at a mosque for Friday prayers at the time. As a result of the firing, seven presidential bodyguards were killed. Saleh himself was wounded in the head. However, he was strong enough to disseminate a statement "outlawing" the forces behind the shooting. The president accused the leader of the Hashid tribal federation, Sadiq al-Ahmar, of attempting to stage a coup. Soon afterwards Saleh went to Saudi Arabia for treatment. And this promises to be a watershed in the Yemeni revolution.

It is worth recalling that monarchs of the Persian Gulf countries recommended a couple of months ago that the Yemeni leader leave the country and pass on presidential powers to Vice-President Abdu Rabu Mansur Hadi. And although Saleh rejected the suggestion, he has effectively fulfilled it now, albeit as a result of tragic developments. 

The opposition appears to be celebrating success even though Saleh's departure has taken place for health reasons. People from the opposition camp are stating joyfully that the head of state will not return to his post any more. The revolutionary youth of Yemen has congratulated its supporters on alienating Saleh, stressing that the popular insurgency "has reached its goal" and calling for the formation of a presidential council to run the country during the period of transition.

Interest in Saleh's departure from the post of Yemeni president has been expressed not only by his protesting fellow citizens and leaders of Persian Gulf countries. The USA and the European Union have taken an extremely harsh stance towards the Yemeni regime. They have made it clear that Saleh, who is losing legitimacy in the eyes of his own people, is no longer viewed as a reliable ally in the fight against international terrorism. The Western pressure on Saleh's government has been so strong, the spokesman for the Yemeni president said in the aftermath of the shooting that the attack had been masterminded by the United States.

Also quite indicative is the position of Russia which, from the very outset of the Arab revolution, has been trying to demonstrate its own approach to the developments. At times, this approach has dramatically differed from that of the West. While Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov condemned the "civilian demonstrators" in Yemen for using heavy arms and attempting to seize government institutions, he made a hint that it was time for President Saleh to go. He even expressed regret at the Yemeni leader's rejection of the initiative by leaders of the Gulf's Arab states to hand power to a successor. "Proceeding from the interests of the Yemeni people and state, all the parties involved in the developments in the country should reach peace agreements as soon as possible on the basis of the said initiative," Lavrov said.

However, despite Saleh's departure, it would be premature to think that his supporters would agree to give up power so easily. On the other hand, the deterioration of the conflict within Yemen which is gradually assuming the nature of civil war primarily runs against the interests of the authorities. They are apparently doomed to failure in the conditions of increasing international isolation and the toughening of the positions of protesters, most of whom vegetate below the poverty line.

Will Assad get out of the way?

While developments in Yemen are getting ever closer to boiling point, Syria is going through a pre-reform period. It appears likely that the progress of the Syrian revolution will determine whether or not the "Arab spring" is to be continued. The reason is obvious: Syria is not poor Yemen, contrasting Egypt or Bedouin Libya. Syria, located in the very heart of historical Mesopotamia, is rightfully considered the most educated and progressive country of the Arab world, and it is no coincidence that it enjoys such clout in the Middle East. Not to mention the fact that a domestic conflict in this country threatens bitter ramifications, much crueller and bloodier than those experienced by other Arab nations.

Damascus is taking the toughest possible measures to suppress demonstrators. Arab rights organizations already report the killing of over a thousand people in clashes with law-enforcement authorities. The UN high commissioner for human rights, Navanethem Pillay, accuses Damascus of trying "to force the population to obey the authorities by deploying tanks, artillery and servicemen".

Meanwhile, the authorities are also on the receiving end of anti-government attacks. For instance, 120 employees of law-enforcement agencies were killed in an armed attack near the town of Jisr ash-Shugur in northwestern Syria. The response from Damascus followed immediately: Jisr ash-Shugur was stormed after several days of siege.

At the same time, along with punitive measures Bashar al-Assad is taking measures showing his readiness to relieve the tensions in the country. He has announced an amnesty of political prisoners which applies to members of all political movements, including the communists and activists of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Assad has also established a commission led by the Syrian vice-president, Farouk al-Sharaa, which has been tasked with "developing principles for conducting a nationwide dialogue and putting a timeframe on it".

But it is not that straightforward. In addition to the opposition demanding an unconditional change of regime led by the Assad clan for several decades now, the West seems to have handed down its final verdict on the incumbent authorities without leaving them a single chance of rehabilitation. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that the Syrian president is not taking tangible steps to carry out political reforms in the country. She said Assad should either embark on truly democratic transformation or "get out of the way".

The increasing international pressure on Damascus is also demonstrated by the decision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to bring Syria to account in the UN Security Council for concealing information about a secret nuclear reactor. Back in April, the IAEA head, Yukiya Amano, openly stated for the first time that the secret Dajr az-Zaur (Al Kibar) facility in Syria, which was destroyed by the Israeli air force in 2007, was a nuclear reactor under construction. The IAEA report indicates that Damascus should have provided timely information about the nature of the secret facility.

Another signal is the preparation by the European Union of a package of sanctions against Syrian companies. And most importantly, Western superpowers are campaigning for the UN Security Council to pass a resolution condemning Damascus for crushing protest demonstrations. One of the authors of the resolution, France, actually believes that President Assad has lost legitimacy to run the country.

The West is thus making no secret of its desire to see an end of the Syrian regime. Besides rejecting the essence of the current Syrian authorities, the USA and its European allies are also working on a major geopolitical objective by trying to capitalize on the Syrian revolution to deprive Iran of its key ally.

However, the West's desire to put Damascus "to global shame" through the adoption of a UN resolution is unlikely to be satisfied. Such a resolution is opposed by China and Russia. Moscow believes that the Syrian regime has already started reforms and therefore deserves clemency. In the West, however, this position is not seen as a display of mercy by the Kremlin but as Russia's efforts to achieve a pragmatic political objective - to preserve a naval base on the Syrian coast and ensure the continuing presence of Damascus on the list of the most reliable buyers of Russian weaponry.

So the culminating point of the "fight for Syria" is still ahead. The most intriguing issue is whether Assad can stay in power despite the domestic revolutionary pressure and the international forces supporting it. His biggest rival in this sense is Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of war-stricken Libya whom NATO has been trying to crush, so far without much success.

New "days of rage"

In the Libyan war, the West is already deploying British Apache military helicopters. Western experts believe that the use of such helicopters against Gaddafi's army is evidence that coalition forces are convinced of the insufficient effectiveness of the military measures taken thus far.

But it should not be ruled out that the Western military campaign against Gaddafi's regime is a prelude to a NATO ground assault in Libya. It is becoming increasingly likely, given the collapse of the peace initiatives aiming to persuade Gaddafi to leave power. One of latest initiatives was the suggestion on the part of Turkey to grant the leader of the Arab revolution a safe and quiet life outside Libya. But Gaddafi is intransigent. In response to the suggestion, the Libyan leader said in a meeting with the president of the International Chess Federation (FIDE), Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, that he had no intention of leaving Libya because "this is my land where my children and grandchildren were killed".

The determination of the Libyan regime to fight to the end has been confirmed by the fact that the town of Az Zawiya was recaptured from insurgents. Fighting for this town, 50 km from Tripoli, has been under way since late February. Supporters of opposition forces viewed Az Zawiya as a base for preparing an attack on the Libyan capital. The capture of this town by Gaddafi forces will, beyond doubt, lead to renewed bombardment by the Western coalition and further revitalize the issue of whether it is appropriate to launch a ground operation in Libya. The issue seems to be gradually assuming a rhetorical nature for the West.

Further tendencies of the Arab revolution appear much more unpredictable, even for Euro-Atlantic political circles. There is increasing speculation that a second stage lies ahead and its peculiarity lies in the fact that infighting is about to start among the forces aspiring to overthrow dictatorships. While secular circles, liberal and leftwing forces advocate a continuation of revolutionary changes, the conservative camp and clerical movements are interested in alleviating Western-style democratic transformation and are preparing the ground for what their opponents see as Islamic radicalism. It is no coincidence that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has condemned new "days of rage" when Egyptian cities were filled with demonstrators again. A similar process is also observed in Tunisia, although preparations for the first election after the toppling of Ben Ali are passing off more quietly there.

However, no country of the "Arab spring" has succeeded in improving the lives of the millions of people that took to the streets to overthrow totalitarian regimes in the name of the ideals of freedom and justice. Yet, despite many caveats, the revolutionary processes in Arab countries have become irreversible. And the hot political summer that has replaced the cataclysms of the spring is vivid evidence of that.