THE KREMLIN PUZZLE

The "2012 mystery" has existed in Russia since the last presidential election, since the moment the new and former presidents of the Russian Federation, Dmitriy Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, marched out of the Kremlin's Spasskiy Gates, without any hurry and quite confidently, to a tune of the Lube band… Not only the Russians but also the whole world have been scratching their heads for four years now as to what will happen when Dmitriy Medvedev's presidential term expires. 

Over the years, despite the efforts of journalists and political analysts, it has been impossible to ferret out a clue from the "ruling tandem". In fact, the same level of suspense was observed in the run-up to the 2008 election as well, as people were wondering whether Putin would leave, and if he did, where he would go and how. The media were bending over backwards trying to work out from Putin's answers and comments what he was going to do next. The situation became especially tense when "the search for a successor" narrowed down to two completely different politicians - Dmitriy Medvedev and Sergey Ivanov. And that was when the most interesting part started. 

It may be a little too early for Russia's "problem-2012" to reach its culminating point, but the political arena in Russia has become much livelier. Obviously, the main developments will start unfolding in the coming autumn and winter, which means that the summer will be hot but not sleepy.   

In fact, it may not be too bad that Putin and Medvedev are so far tight-lipped over their plans, because otherwise the mystery would be gone and the main news of 2012 would probably be the end of the world by the Maya calendar… 

Everyone is extremely interested to know what else Russia will invent in the sphere of state governance. Russia is not the USA, where presidential elections have long remained unchanged and whether the president is a Republican or Democrat doesn't change much in the White House. 

Things are a bit different in the Kremlin where every new ruler has been inventing and introducing something new since the times of the Russian empire, perhaps even earlier. To put it in modern parlance, every new leader has invented his own style. 

For instance, the notion of a "ruling tandem" was introduced after Dmitriy Medvedev took office.

This is not a new phenomenon in history, but it has certainly acquired some individual features in the conditions of modern Russia. It is difficult, if possible at all, to come up with a formula by which the structure of power is developed in Russia, because this structure is always being transformed, depending on who is in charge. And who is in charge in the "ruling tandem" now? This is the question the Russian media have been asking almost on a daily basis. But it doesn't matter much any longer. It is more important to understand what will be (or remain) in charge in 2012.  

As was the case with Putin too, Medvedev was not a noticeable political figure before the main stakes were placed on him. Neither did he have clear presidential ambitions. His potential was not immediately evident either. The only difference is that Boris Yeltsin, who was Putin's predecessor, left once and for all, while Putin remained by the side of his successor, retained all the power and financial leverage, and did not lose authority and influence. He continued to be a nationwide leader with what he himself described as a pretty comfortable range of powers. Medvedev started working in the "power vertical" built by Putin. Suffice it to say that western media have been using the word combination of "Putin's Russia" all this time…

So is Medvedev just a figure meant to keep the presidential chair warm for Putin's next term (terms)? The Moor has done his work, the Moor can go? Was Medvedev a successful president? Has Russia progressed in his presidency, as he promised? Was he more successful than Putin in foreign policy? Medvedev's term in office has already seen quite a few significant developments - war with Georgia, conflicts with Ukraine and Belarus, the economic crisis, the reset with the USA. 

For instance, a representative of the Moscow Carnegie Center, Liliya Shevtsova, says in an article published in The Washington Post that Putin has turned Medvedev into a symbol of reformists' hopes deliberately and in his own interests. This makes "the campaign for the preservation of power in the hands of Putin's tandem more realistic". In reality, however, there is nothing that would attest to the transfer of real power to Medvedev…

This is why Dmitriy Medvedev's press conference in Skolkovo was eagerly anticipated. Immediately afterwards, however, journalists and pundits quickly expressed their discontent because the president shied away from the main question again, did not even draw tentative conclusions to his presidency, did not make any significant statements and spoke rather obliquely.

Meanwhile, there is an impression that the media, especially foreign, are not as interested in finding an answer to the Russian "mystery-2012", as they are in seeing a struggle for power between the tandem members.

Supporters of this theory always talk of growing tensions between Putin and Medvedev. And everyone agrees that it will be Medvedev who will have to concede. As a result, every statement and every step of the Russian president and prime minister are carefully analysed.

For instance, The Sunday Times believes that it will be Putin who will run for the presidency. This conclusion of the publication's "unnamed senior sources" is based on "Medvedev's recent criticism of the government at a press conference in Skolkovo". According to anonymous experts, this step by Medvedev further reinforced the Russian prime minister's "conviction and determination to return to the Kremlin". "However, the president may not agree with that, and a struggle for power may flare up right in the run-up to the election," the newspaper says. An anonymous source of The Sunday Times believes that "Medvedev has become too arrogant, therefore the president will be challenged". The point is that "although Putin did not question his prot?g?'s loyalty before, this confidence has been shaken by a number of camouflaged escapades against him." The rumour goes that the reason for a change in Medvedev's conduct is his annoyance that neither in Russia proper nor abroad is he seen as an independent figure capable of making the decision to run for a second term in office. 

The New York Times believes that while answering another question, the president hinted to Putin that it was time for him to leave politics. The paper discerned the hint in Medvedev's response to a question about the change of governors. Thus, when asked whether government change could be expected any time soon because Medvedev had replaced almost half the governors, the president answered that nothing was eternal. 

At the same time, Spanish El Pais says these words mainly applied to the president himself and the sacked former speaker of the Federation Council, Sergey Mironov… 

Curiously enough, all of a sudden investors have started talking about Putin's return to the Kremlin, in which case they believe the government would be led by the current deputy prime minister and the minister of finance, Aleksey Kudrin. Putin's possible return to the presidency has also been stated by the influential Swedish investment company Vostok Nafta. 

"Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has decided to run for the presidency next year," The Times says, adding that his decision was influenced by a "classical situation when a student is trying to beat the teacher".

Certain signs of a strain in the tandem were even detected in Medvedev's joke about the Russian habit of being late. According to Interfax, the former German chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, who was a moderator at the International Legal Forum in St Petersburg, announced that it was time to complete the meeting so that forum participants weren't late for lunch. But Dmitriy Medvedev calmed down the German guest, saying that unlike Germany, "it is acceptable to be slightly late" in Russia. He then added that although this does not apply to him, "there are other colleagues" who "do this for him". For this reason, a number of media outlets, namely Ekho Moskvy, decided that the presidential joke was about Putin's well-known habit of being late - the current Russian prime minister even managed to keep the Queen waiting.

The western media have also been perplexed by the Internet cartoons about Putin and his "nano-assistant" Dmitriy Medvedev. Putin is seen wearing a white kimono, while Medvedev wears bear hide. Many observers are certain that the cartoon is also part of the election campaign. One Internet user has even suggested that the cartoon has been paid for by the main ideologist of the Kremlin, Vladislav Surkov.

The press is also carefully watching the "Khodorkovskiy in prison" barometer because the Yukos case holds a very special place in Putin's presidential career. The Moscow City Court recently rejected Mikhail Khodorkovskiy's appeal against the sentence in the second case. As a result, The New York Times viewed this as a sign that Putin will still be Russia's leader. It also undermines Medvedev's position - unlike the prime minister, the president thinks that Khodorkovskiy poses no threat to society. 

Meanwhile, the press secretary for the prime minister and the leader of the ruling party, Dmitriy Peskov, has said in an interview with the Russian News Service that a candidate for presidency from United Russia will be determined at the party's congress. And this is still a matter for the future because this year's congress will only nominate candidacies for election to the State Duma.

Everything in Russia depends on personalities, but the role of parties should not be underestimated either, especially since a presidential candidate can only be nominated by a party or parties. It has recently been announced that Dmitriy Medvedev has started preparations for a "great political season", which will include a series of pre-election consultations he intends to hold with leaders of all political parties, including those not represented in parliament. The first such consultation has been held with the Communist Party leader, Gennadiy Zyuganov. As it should have been expected, speculation followed that this was the president's response to the initiative of the All-Russian Popular Front, the formation of which has been started by Vladimir Putin.

The establishment of the Popular Front was announced in early May. According to Vladimir Putin, this organization can unite nonpartisan supporters around United Russia and enable representatives of public organizations to include their candidacies on party lists without being party members. Any interested public organizations that can enliven the party with new people and ideas are welcome to join the organization.

Also in late May, State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov announced the registration of the Institute of Socioeconomic and Political Research, which will be responsible for developing the election manifesto for United Russia and the All-Russian Popular Front. Putin will be an informal leader of the Front. At the same time, it has been promised that his campaign headquarters will not replace the campaign headquarters of the Popular Front. 

During the press conference in Skolkovo, Medvedev noted that if he does run for a second term, he would like to rely on the forces that have already supported him. He was nominated by four parties -United Russia, A Just Russia, the Agrarian Party and the Civil Force. 

However, the Civil Force joined the Right Cause Party in 2008. The Union of Right Forces and the Democratic Party subsequently joined it too. Interestingly, it has recently been announced that the Right Cause will be led by businessman Mikhail Prokhorov. When asked whether this party had a chance of getting through to the Duma, Medvedev said the party had voters and it could succeed if it consolidated its efforts properly.

The president thinks that the idea "is not hopeless because they have their electorate - representatives of the business sector, representatives of management, representatives of certain free professions."

As a matter of fact, the Right Cause has already stated that it will not join the All-Russian Popular Front. Prokhorov believes that "the party should operate independently". We recall that everyone was certain before that Medvedev would become leader of A Just Russia which found itself at a loose end due to the resignation of Sergey Mironov from the post of the head of the Federation Council. 

Does that suggest that Putin and Medvedev will be nominated at the same time? Is Russia prepared for a stand-off of two strong parties? Everything will depend on the situation in the country, on how United Russia will cope with the election. The parliamentary election will provide an answer to these questions. 

One thing is clear - Putin and Medvedev will not smear each other in public. No-one will see an open political showdown. The president and the prime minister are too connected to each other. The collapse of either of them will automatically take its toll on the other.

Some large-scale events that can deal a blow to Medvedev may certainly happen over the year. And this is when Putin can stand out - he is still seen as a symbol of Russian unity and of relatively prosperous years. 

But on the other hand, Putin may return to the presidency for 12 years, and after that Medvedev, a young and talented Russian politician, may still have a serious chance of returning to the Kremlin.

So Putin and Medvedev may continue working together after all. There is no doubt that over the past years they have developed a wonderful interaction mechanism. So why break it? As many Russian observers are saying, it might be appropriate for the Kremlin to consider reviving the post of the vice-president.