WHY IS IT POSSIBLE IN LIBYA AND NOT POSSIBLE IN KARABAKH?

The world's political map was and still is multi-polar. In fact, the poles are not expected to change a lot in the foreseeable future. However, the center of gravity of global geopolitics may shift from one pole to another. While the USA was calling the shots yesterday, today there is an obvious slant towards Asia.

The editor-in-chief of a well-known magazine, "Russia in global politics", Fedor Lukyanov, believes that gone are the days when one of the world's superpowers was seeking a unipolar world. The geopolitical configuration of the world is changing rapidly under the influence of such developments as the wave of revolutions in the Middle East and Maghreb countries. In an interview with our magazine Lukyanov has said who is to play what role in the current global politics, what repercussions Arab revolutions may have for the world, how unresolved conflicts are affecting the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus and, in general, what scenario global political events will follow. 

Hello Fedor. First, let me ask you about the possibilities of modern Russia to affect global politics. What makes Russia, a leading geopolitical player, different from the USA, Europe, etc.?

Russia's influence on global affairs is difficult to measure because there is no universal scale for that, especially in today's world which is very complex and diverse. Russia is less powerful than the USA, which stands above the ordinary competition, but it is certainly more influential than any of the European countries and even all EU countries put together. Russia's economic power leaves much to be desired, but it is still immense due to the energy resources and the consumer market. In strategic (military and political) terms, Russia is behind the USA, but it is ahead of others, maybe except for China. Russia ceased to be a superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but it is one of most important regional players with certain global assets.

- Is there a possibility that the "cold war" between Russia and the USA may revive? Or did it never even end but had simply calmed down?

The cold war ended with the collapse of the USSR, and what we are seeing now is just the declining momentum which is explained by a slow change of mentality. The cold war was a unique stage in the development of the international system, when bipolar competition was securing a very stable order. It is impossible to revive it, and we will never see that same model again. As for US-Russian relations, the burden of the past is very heavy indeed, but since the international situation has changed profoundly and the focus is shifting towards Asia - to the East and South, the nature of relationship between Moscow and Washington will inevitably change as well.

- Do you share the opinion that the world will be run by one superpower? And who will control this single policy? Russia or the USA?

No one superpower, be it the USA, China, Russia or any other country, can control the whole world. This is impossible. The USA attempted to do that in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but without much success.

- What goals does Russia pursue in its Caucasus policy?

Stability, predictability, respect for Russian interests, which does not mean exclusive rights though. Russia is fully aware of the reality and does not claim a unique status which would exclude the presence and activities of all other superpowers there. But Russia's opinion must always be taken into account. Otherwise, we can end up with the Georgian scenario of 2008.

- What superpower is capable of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which is a priority issue for Azerbaijan? If it is Russia, what is it waiting for?

There are only two countries who can do this - Armenia and Azerbaijan. Others can only make a contribution and influence, but no-one other than Baku and Yerevan has the leverage.

- What is the reason behind the awkward attitude towards Azerbaijan in the Karabakh issue? President Ilham Aliyev has stated recently that four UN resolutions on Nagorno-Karabakh remain unfulfilled, while the resolutions on Libya were executed instantaneously.

Double standards are a normal phenomenon in international affairs. They always boil down to the interests of major players in each particular case. As for the comparison between Libya and Karabakh, strange as this may sound, Libya is less important and easier in terms of interests, so it was easier to find common ground in this particular case. 

- You have recently attended a Baku conference on the balance of powers in the Middle East. In which direction can the balance change?

It is too early to tell. In general, the Arab world will be more independent and less oriented to the West. But it remains to be seen how soon and in what way this will happen.