"367 CRISIS"

There is less than a month and a half left for the election in Turkey - on 12 June voters will not only determine a new balance of forces in parliament but can also markedly change the very essence of the country's political system.

Incumbent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made it clear that in the event of yet another victory of the Justice and Development Party he is leading, a referendum would be initiated to adopt a new constitution which, in particular, will turn Turkey into a presidential republic.

That said, the ruling party's election campaign is focusing on the implementation of long-term projects which, according to government representatives, will not be completed until 2023. Erdogan's supporters realize that under the current disposition of forces they would be unable to secure the absolute majority of mandates and thus overcome the "367 crisis" (this number of seats in parliament is required for securing the absolute majority and passing laws without bothering too much about the opposition). 

In the previous election held on 22 July 2007, Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to do that even though his party got 47 per cent of the votes. Can he do it this time? Judging by public opinion polls, this is unlikely. In fact, Erdogan himself has acknowledged that the Justice and Development Party can get a maximum of 315-330 mandates of the possible 550. And this includes the mandates Erdogan's supporters will get after the distribution of the votes of the parties failing to cross the 10-per-cent barrier.

At the same time, even the most ardent supporters of the incumbent authorities agree that the ruling party's goal should be to preserve its current positions which have deteriorated in the aftermath of the 2007 election. Latest surveys confirm that Erdogan's party will lose at least 10 seats in the parliament. The government does not have any trump cards left in its hands. None of Turkey's major problems has been resolved in the last four years, be it a ban on the wearing of Muslim headscarves in public places or the "Kurdish issue". Hence fears over the possible decline of the ruling party's popularity rating. This is why Erdogan has carried out a major "clean-up" of the party in parliament. The list of candidates from the Justice and Development Party released on 11 April does not contain the names of almost half of current deputies, as 167 out of 333 of Erdogan's supporters have been closed out of the election race.

Curiously enough, 65-70 per cent of the voters ready to vote for the Justice and Development Party on 12 June have stated that they "are giving their votes to Erdogan, not to the party". In other words, even if the premier refuses to include the names of several renowned politicians in the list of candidates, the positions of his party will be largely unscathed.

According to latest surveys commissioned by the well-known monitoring company Metropol in several major cities of Turkey, the number of "hesitant" voters as of late April exceeded 23 per cent. This is a factor spurring the opposition towards active campaigning.

A total of 24.1 per cent of those polled have described Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a "key political figure" of the country. Thus, the prime minister has overtaken not only his direct opponents but even President Abdullah Gul whose rating is 9.3 per cent.

Slightly less popular is the leader of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 6.3 per cent, while nationalist Dovlet Bahceli is supported by 3.3 per cent of the voters.

Fifth and sixth in the "popularity rankings" are Suleyman Demirel (3 per cent) and Ahmet Necdet Sezer (2.1 per cent). Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, 0.8 per cent, is in one of the last places.

At the same time, the recent scandals in Turkey's education system, when several fraud schemes involving examination tickets for those applying for admission to universities were exposed one after another, should not be forgotten either. Considering the fact that the percentage of youth in Turkish society is quite high, the blow to the positions of the government and the ruling party is obvious. The decline in the popularity rating of universities also deals a blow to those graduating from universities as they can't find jobs. As a result, this segment of voters sides with the opposition.

At the same time, the change of leader in the camp of Erdogan's main rival, the Republican People's Party, has had a positive impact on the image of the opposition. The Party's leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is now expected to increase the percentage of seats in parliament. Whereas in 2007 his party could not cross even the 25-per-cent psychological barrier, now analysts believe that his supporters can easily pass the 30-per-cent mark.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu's party, placing stakes on a stand-off with Erdogan's supporters, has included on the list of its candidates the names of several political figures arrested in the wake of the notorious "Ergenekon" proceedings.

The leaders of the organization are trying to get rid of the burden of its former leader Deniz Baykal who had not won a single election in the 20 years of party leadership and resigned after a sex scandal. Of 101 current MPs representing the party only 37 have been included on new lists - most of those close to Baykal have been sidelined. Turkish analysts view this as a major plus for the party which has proved itself as "the country's second biggest force" but one that does not have the potential to become a leader. However, Kilicdaroglu did not venture to completely eliminate the "Baykal factor" by nominating his candidacy from the town of Antalya. We recall that Deniz Baykal has been in the Turkish parliament since 1973. 

The Nationalist Action Party (NAP), which is represented in the parliament by the third biggest faction, deserves a special mention. According to predictions, Dovlet Bahceli's party will make it to the parliament again, but it is unlikely to improve its current position.

Meanwhile, the Peace and Democracy Party (PDP), which is popular in south-eastern regions of Turkey populated by ethnic Kurds, has announced that it will support former MP Leyla Zana who has spent about 10 years in prison for ties with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party. The PDP has also announced that it will support the candidacies of six convicted Turkish politicians. All of them will be nominated as independent candidates because the pro-Kurdish party is not sure it can pass the threshold. Representatives of this party have stated that they will agitate for 64 independent candidates in 42 provinces throughout the country, while the number of MPs will increase from 20 at present to 35.

Poll questions confirm that the PDP's popularity over the last year has increased, especially in the south-eastern provinces of Turkey, but it still does not exceed 7 per cent in the country. As a result, representatives of this pro-Kurdish party are nominated as "independent candidates" and then join into a faction in parliament.

The attempts of the electoral commission to narrow down the number of candidates supported by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party have led to demonstrations in the south-eastern provinces of the country. The ban on seven independent candidates has sparked off a major confrontation between the police and supporters of the party.

In principle, the party had expected this decision by the CEC and even prepared a list of "reserve candidates". This move was intended to undermine Erdogan's position to the maximum extent possible, and the CEC decision could not have come at a better time. The wave of protests has had the desired effect and the CEC has receded from its position for the first time in the nine years of Erdogan party's leadership.

The veto on six out of seven candidates was revoked, which dealt a blow to the government's reputation.

It is worth mentioning that 25 parties are officially taking part in the election race. Many of them have joined the campaign but realize that they will hardly be able to cross the threshold. The only option for them is consolidation into "temporary coalition parties". But there is not enough time for that as the CEC is about to start printing ballot papers on 2 May.

Also noteworthy in this regard is the Democratic Party of Turkey which has established itself in the political firmament but has lost a significant portion of its electorate in the previous election. The party's core is made up of activists of the True Path Party established by former president Suleyman Demirel. The party has already announced the establishment of a coalition with the Independent Turkey Party.

Therefore, the balance of political forces in the new Turkish parliament is seen as follows: the Justice and Development Party 45 per cent, the Republican People's Party about 30 per cent and the Nationalist Action Party 10-15 per cent.

As a result, the biggest success will be made by the Republican People's Party of Kemal Kilicdaroglu. It will gain 8-9 per cent more votes than in 2007. As for electorate activity, it is usually very high in Turkey. More than 80 per cent of the voters are saying that they will vote in the election by all means.