WAR AND… PEACEFUL HOLIDAY

Oil and tourism. These are, perhaps, the two most promising and profitable sectors of the contemporary world economy. But if the oil industry is experiencing a rise in prices, then the tourism sector, and the airline market, have suffered a number of setbacks. An increase in the price of oil will inevitably lead to more expensive transport services as will the natural disasters, the tsunami in Japan unrest in Greece, war in Libya, mutiny in Syria. They will radically alter the map of popular tourist destinations and will considerably reduce the profitability of the tourism business; and not only in the countries mentioned.

Unstable policy

Let us begin with high oil prices and the cancellation of many flights during the unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, which led to losses for airline carriers worldwide. According to preliminary figures, this year their income will fall by 2 per cent. Airline business losses are second only to those in tourism.

Following political events in the Middle East, the International Air transport Association (IATA) lowered its forecasts of basic indices for the airline sector in 2011. Thus, this year profits of 8.6bn dollars are estimated, as against the earlier forecast of 9.1bn dollars, and net profits to be 46 percent down on 2010 (16bn dollars).

Furthermore, events in Libya have had a direct impact on the number of tourists, not only there, but also to many other Mediterranean countries. Moreover, this tendency will continue; Spanish specialists assure us that the military operation kicked off by the coalition of the US, Britain, France, Italy, Canada and a number of other countries, has potentially serious consequences for the whole region's tourist industry.

Besides the increase in oil prices, the second problem for the leisure industry has already meant a change in cruise ship routes and a sharp reduction in the number of tourists from the USA who see the whole region as a military zone.

Moreover, it is clear that the NATO operation against Muammar Qaddafi will affect the tourist industries of countries adjacent to Libya - Tunisia and Egypt. Refugees, the closure of airspace and increased security measures have frightened away tourists. Thus, Egypt's losses in this sector have already approached 1bn dollars. Unemployment faces employees in tourist companies, hotels, restaurants, a number of transport companies, interpreters, guides, producers of souvenirs, souvenir stands…

A similar situation is also unfolding in other countries of the Middle East and North Africa caught up in the wave of demonstrations - Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Morocco and Oman.

Resorts in the southern Mediterranean: Sicily, Cyprus, Malta and a number of Greek islands, are sufficiently close to the theatre of military operations in Libya. The NATO aircraft bombing Libyan cities are based in Sicily, and it cannot be ruled out that the island will become a target for retaliatory attacks by Qaddafi.

Experts believe that against this background, destinations such as India, China and Israel will become most popular. The Spanish coast may also benefit; European tour companies will contribute to this as they seek to satisfy the demands of clients wishing to rest at Mediterranean resorts. At the same time, it is entirely possible that this will lead to an increase in the cost of tourist packages to these destinations.

No less dangerous now is a holiday in Japan, although this modern country with a rich heritage enjoyed exceptional popularity among tourists until very recently. Because of the earthquake, the tsunami, the incident at the Fukushima nuclear power station and subsequent radiation emissions, almost no one will want to go to Japan.

As is the case with Libya, tourists now fear to go to countries in proximity to Japan; Thailand, for example, where it is said that radiation has reached. They are frightened away from holidaying in Thailand, especially after news of the earthquake in Myanmar, which occurred on 24 March near the border with Laos and Thailand.

Turkish renaissance

It might seem that developments in the countries of North Africa and the NATO military operation against Libya, would lead to an increase in the attractiveness of Turkish resorts. However, as the tourprom.ru website reports, the effect has been the direct opposite: European tourists fear to holiday in Turkey.

The British Daily Mail reports that tourist companies are reporting a 9 percent drop in sales of holidays in Turkey, despite the fact that it is far from the military conflict, is not involved in it and is not in the grip of revolution. At the same time, the picture is completely different in Russia: sales of tourist packages to Turkey are growing not by the day, but by the hour. Hence the fears that Turkish hoteliers will raise their prices.

On this subject, Faiq Qurbatov national coordinator of a UNDP project to develop tourism in Azerbaijan, told R+ that with the onset of the summer season and against the backdrop of international developments, holidays in Turkey will become even more popular, including for Azerbaijanis.

"At least, this year. Many of those who chose to rest in Egypt in the winter months, now prefer Turkish resorts. The same goes for other CIS countries", said Qurbatov.

For his part, Nadir Nadirov, director of the Azerbaijani Darvis travel agency, said in commenting to R+ that as Egypt and Tunis are out of favour with tourists, the demand for Turkish resorts from Azerbaijani tourists has risen 20 percent. "Growth is definite, and the region's popularity is not only rising among Azerbaijani tourists."

Russia has already reopened flights to Egypt and, even before Russia, planes from Ukraine, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, and Britain were flying there. The same concerns apply about the cost of hotels in Turkish resorts, since tours booked earlier to Egypt and Tunisia (booked, say, in February for June) were switched to Turkey.

And since the bulk of tourists 'defected', Turkish hoteliers have increased prices from 5 to 25 percent. Moreover, a picture is emerging of a number of hotels cancelling early bookings, since hotels promise to be full to the limit by July", said Nadirov.

In other words, a travel package to Antalya or Bodrum will cost Azerbaijanis 5-25 percent more than last year. And, in light of demand, it is hard to expect any special offers from Turkish hoteliers soon.

This applies to the near future, since under certain conditions Turkish hotels can reduce prices. The renewal of competition, i.e. an albeit slight but growing demand for trips to Egypt, where the post-revolutionary situation is stabilizing, will be conducive to this effect.

A safe holiday

Thus today's picture is like this: popular routes remain unclaimed by force of circumstance; an outflow of tourists is observed to other countries where the political situation, natural climatic conditions and the cost of travel is more acceptable. Some experts believe that Azerbaijan can be a very good alternative for holidaymakers.

Faiq Qurbatov says that tourists have always preferred to holiday in countries where the political situation is calm, where there is least threat of earthquake, tornado, sandstorm, tsunami or exploding nuclear power stations. From this angle, Azerbaijan is a stable and calm country for holidaymakers.

Moreover, the country's tourist infrastructure is developing; this will contribute to increased popularity for domestic tourism and a rising influx of tourists to the country.

The chairman of the Azerbaijani Tourism Association (AzTA), Nahid Bagirov, thinks that events in the Arab countries will undoubtedly contribute to an increase in the flow of tourists to Azerbaijan. He believes that, at present, Turkey enjoys unprecedented popularity with holidaymakers.

"At the same time, about a 20 per cent increase in the cost of travel packages to this country is being seen. Moreover, not a single tourist who has not made an early booking is guaranteed a hotel room for the dates desired. Therefore, many will look for alternatives, and Azerbaijan is a perfectly attractive option", he asserts.

The AzTA has now stepped up its promotion of cultural heritage, to attract potential tourists, he said. In particular, the association is holding live exchanges with partners from CIS countries as well as Germany, and they are showing great interest in cooperation.

Bagirov is also confident that the number of tourists visiting Azerbaijan will rise by 20-30 per cent this year and "the developments in Libya and other countries will play a big role in this rise".

"In addition, Azerbaijan has adopted a law simplifying the issue of visas to foreign citizens and the possibility of obtaining electronic visas is in the pipeline. Travel agencies will process visas in order to stimulate tourist flows to the country; they will be intermediaries between foreign citizens and diplomatic offices. This will further stimulate foreigners to come to Azerbaijan; support for the work of tour operators will provide an enormous push for the development of the tourist industry in Azerbaijan", Bagirov said.

Incidentally, Deputy Speaker of the Milli Maclis Ziyafat Asgarov believes that Azerbaijan has a good image in the world community and the creation of acceptable, simplified conditions for an increase in tourism to the country is a positive step.

To the whole world!

Meanwhile, the promotion of cultural heritage and of modern Azerbaijan, about which the head of the AzTA spoke, promises immense returns. This spring the Discovery Science TV channel, with a global audience of more than one-and-a-half billion, will show TV programmes about Baku's unique architectural projects.

The building of the Heydar Aliyev Centre, the Flame Tower complex and Flag Square, which will soon become symbols of modern Baku, attracted Discovery's attention.

A team from the channel plans to make programmes about these unique constructions as part of the project Build It Bigger/Extreme Engineering, dedicated to the most daring engineering projects of the modern period and showing how the world's immense civil constructions are created. Other sights in the city will also be shown.

Today the attention of another television channel - Euronews - is also riveted to Azerbaijan. It shot and broadcast, for example, a clip about Novruz celebrations in our republic. "For a millennium, the Land of Fire has been the site of interaction between different cultures and religions. Through the centuries, the people of Azerbaijan have carried the ancient traditions of its ancestor- fire-worshippers" - this is just one quote from the report. We should also note the presentation clip about Azerbaijan, recently shown by this most popular news television channel.

Thus the focus on Azerbaijan is sharpening with every passing day and this is not only due to the situation in Libya and the shortage of space in Turkish hotels. 

Every year Azerbaijan is making itself increasingly known as a modern country with a stable social and political situation, favourable natural conditions and the richest cultural heritage.

This country where oriental and western cultures interlace and through which the great Silk Way passed, has 9 of the world's 11 climatic zones; is the most dynamically developing economy in the region; has initiated transnational projects; is constructing facilities that boggle the imagination and every year is the centre of international events.

All these factors will sooner or later be reflected in even greater popularization of the country in the international arena, and this means increased numbers of foreign tourists choosing to holiday in an infrastructure that conforms to international standards, in comfort and longed-for calm.