LIBYA IN THE CRUCIBLE OF CIVIL WAR

Developments around Libya are unfolding in two directions.  Muammar Gaddafi's regime is rapidly losing legitimacy and finding itself essentially outlawed in the eyes of most of the international community, including, incidentally, the Arab world.  At the same time, Gaddafi has managed to push rebel forces out of many areas and restore his control of most Libyan territory.  However, this does not necessarily mean that the 'leader of the Libyan revolution' will achieve decisive success.  The civil war in Libya remains unpredictable.

Gaddafi:  Enraged and rejected

By mid-March, government troops loyal to Gaddafi had recorded a number of important victories.  They first managed to break the stronghold of the opposition's resistance in the west of the country near the town of Az Zawiya.  Then the ruling regime's forces knocked the rebels out of Misrat, Tobruk and the seaport and oil terminal of Ras Lanuf - towns in the east of Libya.  Then Gaddafi re-established control over yet another important facility of the Libyan oil industry, the town of Marsa el Brega.  This opened the way to Benghazi - the opposition's main stronghold.  Benghazi, in the east of the country, is the base of the provisional government, the Libyan National Council, which has declared itself the supreme authority in the country.  To all appearances, the further development of the civil war in Libya, and Colonel Gaddafi's regime, is contingent on the outcome of the battle for Benghazi.

In the mean time, the international community is handing down its political verdict to the Libyan authorities.  Despite the fact that Gaddafi constantly assures the West that in the event of his defeat, Libya and the whole of North Africa will be overrun by terrorists from Al-Qaida, the Libyan leader's position in the international arena is weakening by the day.

US President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron are working together for Gaddafi's resignation and an end of violence in Libya. "The common objective in Libya must be an immediate end to brutality and violence, the departure of Gaddafi from power as quickly as possible and a transition that meets the Libyan peoples' aspirations for freedom", reads the White House press release following the conversation between Obama and Cameron.

The EU, for its part, introduced financial sanctions against the Libyan Central Bank, the Investment Department and three other financial institutions in Libya.  In particular, the Libyan Investment Department's assets in Europe, totalling $70 billion, will be seized (incidentally, this financial institution has shares in the Italian football club Juventus, the car maker Fiat, the Italian defence company Finmeccanica SpA and the British publishing house Pearson).

Europe's political stance on the internal political conflict was expressed first by France, when it decided to recognize the opposition National Council of Libya as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people.  An EU decision followed not to recognize the Gaddafi regime as the legitimate authority in Libya.  This came at an emergency EU summit, European leaders urging the Libyan leader to step down immediately.

However, the international campaign against the Gaddafi regime is not limited to the West.  Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev signed an edict to implement the UN Security Council resolution introducing sanctions against Libya. The edict, in particular, bans the supply of armaments, ammunition and military hardware from Russia to Libya. The purchase of arms or services of military nature in Libya is also banned.  All shipments from Russia to Libya will be inspected if there is information that they include military-purpose products.

But, most importantly, Arab leaders also voiced condemnation of Gaddafi.  The Persian Gulf states decreed the ruling Libyan regime to be illegitimate. "The Council for Gulf Arab Countries Cooperation deems the incumbent regime in Libya illegitimate and states the need to establish relations with the National Council there", reads the statement of foreign ministers of the regional organization which includes Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia.

Then the League of Arab States (LAS) decided to recognise the National Council of Libya as the legitimate representative of the Libyan people and to establish diplomatic relations.  Participants in the emergency meeting of foreign ministers of the LAS in Cairo said that the Gaddafi regime had lost its legitimacy after perpetrating crimes against its own people.

The Arab revolution continues

However, none of the international players demanding Gaddafi's immediate departure from the political scene in Libya seems to have a full idea of what might happen in the country if the incumbent regime falls.  Will Libya not transform into another Afghanistan or Somalia, where chaos and civil strife have long been the norm?  Or perhaps this is precisely what the West wants, because its primary concern is the prospect of continued supplies of Libyan oil?  On the other hand, could radical Islamists gain power in Libya, which would be totally against the West's interests?  Especially as Gaddafi himself tirelessly describes the developments in his country as the exploits of Usama bin Ladin.  Despite these questions, one thing is clear:  The West has burned all bridges for a resumption of dialogue with Gaddafi.  French President Nicolas Sarkozy even proposed surgical air strikes against targets in areas under Gaddafi's control in Libya.  The US and British leaders, for their part, expressed their readiness to consider all options in response to developments in Libya, including the use of NATO forces.  However, the military options have, for now, been limited to establishing a no-flying zone over Libya.  Incidentally, the LAS has endorsed this option.  But a decision on such a move can only be taken by the UN Security Council.  There, however, the decision will founder on the positions of Russia and China, which express no interest in foreign military intervention in the Libyan conflict.

Nonetheless, the Western media disseminated reports on Washington's development of a secret plan to arm the Libyan opposition.  US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper hinted openly in a speech during hearings in the Senate that the offensive by Gaddafi's forces against rebel positions might spark the United States into more aggressive steps.  He said that, based on information available to US security agencies, although Libyan Government forces and opposition forces are roughly matched militarily, in the longer term the Gaddafi regime would win.

The US plan of assistance to the Libyan opposition envisages arming it (by supplying antitank missiles and mortars to Benghazi, as well as surface-to-air missile to confront the government's armoured hardware and Air Force) via Saudi Arabia.  However, Riyadh's cooperation is far from certain - and not only because Saudi King Abdullah, the US's closest strategic ally in the Persian Gulf, is not particularly keen to intervene in Libya.  The situation is far from calm In Saudi Arabia itself at present.  On the one hand, the Shia minority, inspired by developments in Bahrain, has been increasingly proactive in voicing its displeasure with the Saudi regime.  On the other hand, Saudis have begun to discuss on social networks the idea of transforming the country from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional one.  So it would seem that the Arab revolution, which promises a new geopolitical layout for the Near East and Maghreb, is far from over...