SOUTH KURIL ISLANDS: WHY ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE?

You can imagine how far away Japan seems to a Muscovite or a resident of any other city in the European part of Russia - although it is a next-door neighbour.  But the Kuril Islands probably seem even more distant.  They often say that there are not only thousands of kilometres, but also decades of time between Moscow and the South Kuril Islands.  And if you ask someone to come up with adjectives for the place, you hear words like 'remote', 'cold' and 'God-forsaken'...

And although anyone would be hard-pressed to provide first-hand evidence that the place is indeed forsaken, there is hard proof of the Russian president's position.  Dmitriy Medvedev remembers the Kuril Islands very well indeed and, judging by recent developments, the landlord in the Kremlin will not forget about them in the near future even if he very much wanted to.

The impression for now is that steps being taken by Moscow and Tokyo - and not only them - are intended to add fuel to the fire of the old dispute.

The Russian-Japanese showdown over the Kuril Islands has again made it onto the front pages of the printed media after a series of visits by highly-placed Russian officials, including Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev.  The Russian leader went to what he described as a "very important region of Russia" in November 2010.  Until that moment, no Russian president had set foot on the South Kuril Islands in the modern era.  However, Medvedev did not even mention Japan during his visit, choosing to focus on social and economic development rather than politics.  In particular, the islands' residents were promised that their living standards would be as high as in central Russia (!)  Medvedev even voiced confidence that the islands' difficult demographic situation could be improved.  "Of course people will move here.  Some will arrive for holidays and others will stay" said the leader somewhat vaguely...  However, living standards on the islands leave much to be desired: there are shortages of specialists, including doctors, the housing is very old and, in general, the prospects for a happy life are somewhat bleak.

Medvedev went to a kindergarten, quays under construction in Yuzhnokurilskaya Bay and the South Kuril Islands fish factory, where he tasted red caviar and heard stories from factory head Konstantin Korobkov of problems with supplies and bureaucracy.  At the geothermal station on the outskirts of Yuzhno-Kurilsk, the Russian president spoke about the need for faster development of the small-scale energy generating sector for small towns.  And finally, the Russian leader visited the local grocery store, Primorye, where he found out that "10 eggs cost 80 roubles."  "On the other hand, the fish is local" Medvedev concluded optimistically, buying halibut and smelt as prepared to return to Moscow.

To all appearances, nothing could detract from the president's optimism that day.  Sakhalin Territory Governor Aleksandr Khoroshavin thanked him for his support for the region in the form of a targeted federal programme of development for the Kuril Islands - 18 billion roubles have been allocated for its implementation.

In the mean time, Russian Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov visited the islands immediately after Medvedev and voiced his intention to re-arm the local military garrison.  Medvedev personally issued instructions to equip military units stationed on the Kuril Islands with modern weapons to guarantee the their security...

However, a number of Russian experts have said that Dmitriy Medvedev should not have visited the islands personally.  This was too overt and excessive a message, and it caused quite a stir in Russia's Far Eastern neighbouring country.

Of course, the Kremlin's plans made the Japanese nervous.  Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan called Medvedev's trip to the Kuril Islands an example of "inadmissible rudeness" and added that the "areas which the USSR took control of after 15 August 1945" are "Japanese territories."  "We have adhered to this position consistently and insist that the territories must be brought back under our control," Kan said.  His statement was supported by the leaders of all political parties represented in the Japanese Parliament.  "It is known that these are our historical territories.  The Russian president's visit caused injury to our nation and was deplorable," said Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, backing the prime minister's statement.  As a result, on 7 February, when Japan commemorated so-called Northern Territories Day, the Japanese far right staged a rally in front of the Russian embassy and desecrated the Russian flag.

The Japanese have been methodically inspecting the 'northern territories' from the air of late.  For example, in December 2010, one month after Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to the Kuril Islands, Seiji Maehara flew by the South Kuril Islands in a helicopter.  And as recently as 19 February, Yukio Edano, secretary general of the Japanese Democratic Party, who is also the minister of state for Okinawa and Northern Territories Affairs, decided to spend some time near the islands.  He cited the need to boost public awareness of the South Kuril Islands' problem in Japan as the main purpose of his visit.  In Edano's opinion, the "issue of the northern territories is a problem not only for the former residents of these islands, but for all the people of Japan."  Edano inspected the South Kuril Islands twice - from a coast guard aircraft and from the highest point of Hokkaido Island, near the city of Nemuro, just seven kilometres from the South Kuril Islands.  Incidentally, former residents of the islands, who were deported to Japan immediately after the territories were taken under Soviet control, live in Nemuro.

"Even if the Russian leaders visit the islands, they cannot change our legal and historical position," said Yukio Edano, although he also called for "calm and constructive dialogue with Russia."

The Russian foreign ministry decided not to leave this discrepancy unanswered.  "It is obvious that what effectively is a call for the Japanese public to 'speak up' on the so-called 'territorial issue' is in conflict with Mr Edano's previous premise about the calm nature of the dialogue", noted the Russian department  of foreign policy.

At the same time, the fact that "Japanese politicians enjoy the beauty of wonderful Russian landscapes from a distance" raises no objections in Moscow.

Naturally, the Americans were bound to get involved in this debate:  Joanne Moore of the US foreign policy department's press service conveyed the State Department's official position on the territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands.  The gist of what she said is that the USA supports Japan and recognizes its sovereignty over the northern islands of the Kuril archipelago but, at the same time "supports efforts by the Japanese and Russian governments to achieve the signing of a long-overdue peace treaty and a strengthening of general bilateral relations between them."

The Russian media reported the US embassy in Moscow as saying, when asked to clarify Washington's official position on the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, that the statement was just a reiteration of the one made by State Department official Philip Crowley in November 2010 and that no new instructions had been received on the issue since then.

On 21 February, US Ambassador to Russian John Beyrle was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry after the US State Department statement was made.  The RIA Novosti news agency reports that the ambassador was informed that Russia considers the four islands of the Kuril archipelago that Japan claims to be Russian territory and it does not intend to change its position on the issue.

However, a number of Russian experts point out that the USA is in fact not at all interested in any escalation of the issue, which is why it urges the parties to begin peaceful dialogues with increasing frequency.  Rossiyskaya Gazeta received a record of the latest speech on the Kuril Islands issued by Mark Toner, acting deputy head of the US State Department Press Service, who said the White House's position "on the northern territories is absolutely clear":  "We urge the parties to start a dialogue, because it is obvious that we need regional stability."

On the other hand, Russian analysts recollect that at the peak of the Cold War, when Japan turned from former foe into US ally, the USA regarded the Soviet-Japanese dispute over the islands as useful.  It exposed yet another USSR weak point to Washington and gave it an additional lever of influence over Tokyo.

Russian analysts also stress, however, that Washington's statements of support for the Japanese position can be viewed as tacit agreement by the US Administration to a revision of the results of World War II, at least in the Asian region.

Incidentally, Georgia, a country far from Japan, unexpectedly interfered in the lively Russian-Japanese debate by advising Tokyo to resort to the Georgian approach to the "problem of occupied territories."

Shota Malashkhia, chairman of the Georgian Parliamentary Commission on Issues of Territorial Integrity, said that the Georgian Parliament might pass, in the near future, a resolution on the occupation of the Kuril Islands, and members of Parliament in Tokyo, Georgia hopes, would pass a resolution on the occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.  The Novosti-Gruziya news agency reports Malashkhia's statement that he has already discussed this issue with the Japanese ambassador in Tbilisi, Masayoshi Kamohara, who said that Tokyo might take part in this type of project.  The Georgian Parliament explained that the resolution on the 'Russian occupiers' would be similar to resolutions on Abkhazia and South Ossetia passed earlier by the parliaments of a number of European countries and that which the US Congress would pass in the near future.

However, it is absolutely clear that Moscow is not even planning to discuss the Kuril Islands issue, because it is so sure of its ground.  Russian Foreign Ministry official Aleksandr Lukashevich said that talks with Japan on the territorial issue are "out of the question, because the parties' positions are diametrically opposed."  For his part, Russian presidential aid Sergey Prikhodko said (during the recent visit by Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara to Moscow) that the "Russian Federation's sovereignty over the Kuril Islands is not subject to revision today, and it will not be tomorrow."

Russia insists that the Kuril Islands are its territories because it took control of them after World War II.  On 2 September 1945, Japan's act of unconditional surrender was signed on board the USS Missouri.  Eventually, despite the absence of a peace treaty with the USSR, Japan joined the United Nations, which back then automatically required there to be no territorial disputes between members of the organization.  On 19 October 1956, the USSR and Japan signed a joint declaration under which the countries ended the war and resumed diplomatic relations.

Japan, however, insists on demarcation in accordance with an earlier treaty signed with the Russian Empire.

It is noteworthy that Moscow believes that the intensification of the dispute with Tokyo is the result of "convulsions in the outgoing Naoto Kan cabinet" - many argue that his resignation is imminent.  This is precisely how 'informed sources' commented on the situation for Kommersant.  They noted that the incumbent Japanese Government has repeatedly failed to secure Parliament's approval for the budget for the fiscal year 2011 which starts in Japan on 1 April.  At the same time, opinion polls show that most politicians and ordinary people believe that Naoto Kan should step down.

Russian Foreign Ministry official Aleksandr Lukashevich said that "unfortunately, radical views prevail in Japan, and they are supported by statesmen of the highest rank, including the prime minister" and in a situation in which Tokyo uses the Kuril Islands issue to address domestic political problems, holding a dialogue is pointless.  It is significant that simultaneously with these verbal exchanges, committed Russian bloggers began a heated debate as to whether Japan is likely to start a war against Russia.  Readers of the Live Journal even organized an opinion poll, according to which 28% of Russian participants said that they would "immediately head for a recruitment post," and 40% stated that they would urgently apply for political asylum in Europe or in the USA...  This is how they joke these days.  And the most radical defenders of the Kuril Islands proposed a boycott of the numerous sushi bars in Russia (in most of which only the names on the menu relate to Japan or the Japanese).  Experts have generally described these online conversations as "manifestations of idiocy."  Political analysts are convinced that the Russian-Japanese dispute over the Kuril Islands will continue for quite some time to come, with fluctuating intensity.  But no one is going to use weapons in the process.

Especially as, come to think about it, the propaganda war serves the interests of both Russia and Japan.  For Russia, this is a welcome diversion from the 'Caucasus problem' and other pressing issues with which it is fed up.

Incidentally, this is also a chance for Moscow once again to think about the size of the country.  In contrast to the Empire of the Rising Sun, Russia has a huge territory and a lot of resources, but these vast expanses are not exactly overpopulated...  particularly in the Far East, where the population is decreasing faster than in any other part of the country, despite the already minimal population density.  And even those people who live there are in remote areas like the Kuril Islands, in old housing; they have somehow reconciled themselves to the lack of doctors and teachers and the expensive food...

As for Japan, it needs a mini-diplomatic scandal with Russia, first and foremost because the incumbent government is struggling with very low approval ratings and very poor (by Japanese standards) economic indicators.