EU ENLISTS AZERBAIJAN'S SUPPORT

Europe had not even got back into its working rhythm after the Christmas holidays when European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso made his first foreign visits in 2011 - first to Azerbaijan and then to Turkmenistan. Thus, the president of the European Commission announced the EU's major priority for this year - to expedite the settlement of energy security issues. It is no coincidence that Christian Dolezal, official spokesman for Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH (NIC), said that "2011 is crucial to Nabucco".

And judging by the results of Barroso's visit to Azerbaijan, Europe has finally decided to move from words to deeds and take real steps towards the realization of this project. On 13 January in Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso signed a Joint Declaration on the Southern Gas Corridor. According to news agencies, Azerbaijan expressed its readiness to supply gas to Europe on a long-term basis in the declaration.

The mere fact that the first document of its kind and level was signed by Brussels in Baku shows that Azerbaijan is key to the EU's plans to diversify its energy sources. Therefore, it was important for the EU to first get guarantees from Baku as a gas producer and the main transport hub.

The more so because in spite of outdated projections by sceptics, Azerbaijan has enough resources - 2.2 trillion cubic metres of proven and, as a minimum, the same number of potential gas reserves, as evidenced by a recent statement by the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan on the discovery of the Umid offshore deposit and high prospects for exploration in other deposits in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea.

The BBC stresses in this respect that the signing of the Baku Declaration on the Southern Gas Corridor, "experts say, does not mean that Baku gives preference to one project, since Azerbaijan's resource base is huge (more than two trillion cubic metres of gas)". Therefore, Baku can also cope with contracts with Gazprom, under which the volume of gas supplied to Russia will increase from 2012.

It is also symbolic that Barroso's visit to Baku coincided with the signing of the main terms of an agreement on the purchase and sale of natural gas between Azerbaijan and Iran. According to the document, beginning from February of this year, Azerbaijan will export gas to Iran for five years. 1 billion cubic metres will be shipped in the first year and the figure will rise in subsequent years.

The diversification of Azerbaijan's energy supply routes to the world market strengthens its position in negotiations with potential gas buyers. The European Commission itself commended the Baku Declaration as an important step in the implementation of the Southern Gas Corridor and the diversification of energy supplies to Europe.

The Financial Times writes that the signing of the declaration in Baku is the first political step in the implementation of the Nabucco project, and now the parties concerned should enter into commercial agreements with investors to exploit gas fields in Azerbaijan for fuel supplies to Europe.

But before starting detailed negotiations, guarantees are also needed from Turkmenistan, another potential gas supplier for the Southern Corridor, which is why Barroso went to Ashgabat. As our magazine went to press, there was no information as to how the talks between the head of the European Commission and the government of Turkmenistan had ended. However, we know that Ashgabat has previously expressed its willingness to export some of its natural gas through Nabucco.

Back in November last year, Turkmenistan's Deputy Prime Minister Baymurad Hojamuhammedov said that if the project is implemented, Ashgabat is ready to send 40 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe annually. "Given the domestic consumption in the west of the country and supplies of gas to Iran from there, we will have another 40 billion cubic metres of gas annually, so European countries need not worry," said Hojamuhammedov.

Moreover, Ashgabat says that Turkmenistan has obtained the support of its Caspian partners on the question of building an East-West underwater gas pipeline.

Just before Barroso's visit, Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov himself also expressed his willingness to provide Europe with gas. "... We are ready to supply gas to European states as well," Berdimuhamedov said. The Turkmen president ordered the government to solve this problem this year.

Time will tell if this year will be decisive for the Nabucco project, but it is quite obvious that Europe is fully determined. EU countries are extremely interested in diversifying gas supplies to the maximum.

At the same time, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine, the European Commission is inclined to believe that the Turkmen government is "under intense pressure" from Russia. "In contrast to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan is heavily dependent on Russia," the German edition emphasizes.

Yet Turkmenistan's plans to supply gas to China indicate Ashgabat's intention to diversify its supplies and expand its number of clients. And this is another factor in the EU's favour.

For Baku, even the mere implementation of Nabucco will be useful, because this will increase Azerbaijan's role in the international arena. The European Union, which has enlisted Baku's declarative support for the Southern Gas Corridor, will have to specify and detail questions of supplies in the future. That's when "the voice of Azerbaijan in Brussels will definitely resound more loudly" in solving its main problem - the liberation of the Armenian-occupied lands, says the Azerbaijani MP and political analyst, Rasim Musabayov.