IN THE BACKGROUND, QUIET RECONCILIATION

The results of the presidential election in Belarus, which took place on 19 December, can hardly be described as surprising:  the incumbent head of state, Aleksandr Lukashenko, won with 79.65% of the votes, according to the local Central Electoral Commission.

The second highest number of votes went to the "candidate 'against everyone'" - in other words, no one - 6.47%.  Of the other candidates, in second place was Aleksandr Sannikov, leader of A European Belarus civil campaign (2.41%).  He was followed by Yaroslav Romanchuk, deputy chairman of the United Civil Party (1.97%), Grigoriy Kostusev, deputy chairman of the BNF Party (1.97%), Vladimir Neklyayev, leader of the Speak the Truth! civil campaign (1.77%), Vitaliy Rymashevskiy, candidate from the newly founded Belarusian Christian Democracy Party (1.1%) and others (a total of 10 presidential candidates were registered for the election).

During the election, 90.4% of eligible citizens cast their ballots.The highest participation was by people of the Vitebsk Oblast (93.1% turned out), while in Minsk, the voter turnout was 83.6%.

The Belarusian opposition, whose representatives categorically refused to admit defeat, was also active. In particular, Vladimir Neklyayev and Andrey Sannikov demanded that the Central Electoral Committee cancel the results of early voting, a method used by more than 23% of voters. As a result, several thousand opposition supporters went onto the streets of Minsk and even made several attempts to storm the Government building. The opposition claims that the Belarusian police used clubs and stun grenades to disperse them. In particular, Yaroslav Romanchuk told Ekho Moskvy radio that "many people were wounded when the opposition protests in the centre of Minsk were dispersed." The authorities stated that clashes on the night of 20 December were provoked by representatives of the opposition who brought "kids" to the protest actions - young men under 20.  When requested to go home, they started to "resist law officers," injuring 30 policemen.

In total, about 639 people were detained (9 of them are Russian citizens), most being sentenced to administrative arrest for 15 days and large fines. Among those handcuffed were six of the 10 presidential candidates (Vladimir Neklyayev, Andrey Sannikov, Grigoriy Kostusev, Vitaliy Rymashevskiy, Aleksey Mikhalevich - organizer of the Union for Modernization, and Nikolay Statkevich, head of the organizational committee for founding the Belarusian Social Democratic Party).  Most of them were charged with organizing mass disorders on the day of the presidential election under Article 239, sections 1 and 2, of the Belarusian Criminal Code (from 5 to 15 years of imprisonment).

"I am sure that everyone will receive his due, after consideration of their role, actions and behaviour. No one will be left unpunished; evil must be punished," said Belarusian Internal Affairs Minister Anatoliy Kuleshov.

The Belarusian Internal Affairs Ministry published phone numbers for round-the-clock information about detainees. Minsk Internal Affairs Department press secretary Aleksandr Lastovskiy said in an interview with Ekho Moskvy that the rights of the detainees were not being violated and that they were kept in good conditions.

There were, incidentally, also journalists among the people detained: the Novaya Gazeta correspondent in Minsk Irina Khalip (Andrey Sannikov's wife), Khartiya-97 web site editor Natalya Radina, and photographer with the St Petersburg-based Moy Rayon newspaper, Aleksandr Astafyev.

During the opposition protest actions in Minsk journalists were, to put it mildly, caught up in the heat of the moment.  For example, according to RBK, a film crew from the Russian Today TV channel was beaten in the centre of the Belarusian capital. In addition, there are reports that correspondents of REN TV, the abovementioned Novaya Gazeta correspondent, a correspondent of The New York Times and a photographer were injured.

There is talk of a rift within the Belarusian opposition (although, according to local observers, there has never been any particular discord among them).  For example, presidential candidate Yaroslav Romanchuk, who is deputy chairman of the United Civil Party, condemned the protest actions by other candidates who organized the disorders in Minsk. In his words, this gave the authorities an excuse to "run an asphalt compactor" over the saplings of democracy and all political parties."

Presidential candidate Viktor Tereshchenko, chairman of the Small and Medium Businesses Association, also denounced the protest actions and said that preparations for the assault on the Government building had begun 10 days earlier. Yet another presidential candidate, private company director Dmitriy Uss, also denounced the disorders.  Incidentally, neither Tereshchenko nor Uss is among the opposition members in detention.

Earlier, before the election, Lukashenko's political opponents were unable to choose a single candidate from the opposition. Vladimir Neklyayev, Vitaliy Rymashevskiy and Andrey Sannikov were among the likely candidates for that role, and they started bickering for the mantle of opposition leader.  This, it seems, was their main tactical mistake.

Aleksandr Lukashenko, for his part, said that he was ready to cooperate with an opposition that was able to formulate clear proposals acceptable to the government.  The re-elected president even met Romanchuk, who also did not rule out the possibility of dialogue with the authorities if they gave him "sufficiently broad powers in his area of expertise and in personnel policy."

As for other opposition members, Lukashenko decided to follow the example of the WikiLeaks web site owner, Julian Assange, and publish some "compromising materials" which will, presumably, shed light on ties between the Belarusian opposition and foreign partners in the West.  Very likely, this will relate to funding.

In the mean time, the interesting point is the split in the verdicts of observers of the Belarusian election. Observers from CIS countries hailed the presidential election in Belarus as transparent and democratic. "We think that the election was open and it was conducted in compliance with election law and universally accepted democratic norms," said CIS Executive Committee Head Sergey Lebedev. He also underscored that police action during the mass riots in Minsk were absolutely legal because there exist "legitimate forms of appeal against election results by applying to the appropriate bodies" and even if protest actions are organized, they should be peaceful.

In the opinion of the head of the CIS Executive Committee, some presidential candidates clearly "took advantage of protest sentiment within the youth."  Lebedev found it necessary to add that "in Paris, London and Athens, where mass riots were taking place, the law enforcement bodies were much tougher" than in Minsk.

At the same time, observers from Europe, who criticized the last parliamentary elections in Belarus, in September 2008, did not recognize Aleskandr Lukashenko's re-election for another presidential term as legitimate. Geert-Hinrich Ahrens, head of the observer mission from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, said that the incumbent head of state used his administrative resources and, besides, there were irregularities during early voting and in the tallying of votes.

The United States and the EU countries also did not recognize the results as legitimate and stated that their relations with Belarus would not improve. US Assistant Secretary of State Philip Crowley said that in the future, this process would depend on "respect for democracy and human rights" in Belarus. Washington and Brussels urged the Belarusian authorities to release all persons who had been detained during the opposition's protest actions on the night of 20 December in Minsk.

The influential American human rights organization Freedom House released a statement in which it welcomed the common position of the USA and the EU on the election and called for a resumption of sanctions against Minsk; they were suspended in 2008.

As for Russia's reaction, it was emphatically correct. Literally days before the election, Lukashenko somehow managed to find a way to win the Kremlin over, and a quiet reconciliation took place between Moscow and Minsk.  The manner in which relations were re-established contrasted with the overblown furore which had occasionally gone beyond the limits of political and diplomatic respectability and which had continued for several months. Peace arrived, one might say, in a low-profile and routine fashion.

Moscow and Minsk, only recently involved in a mud-slinging campaign, suddenly settled all issues relating to the transportation of Russian hydrocarbons across Belarus.

And literally a few days later, the Belarusian Parliament approved the ratification of a number of documents on the creation of a single economic area with Russia and Kazakhstan.  Experts believe that peace with Moscow will earn the Belarusian treasury $3-4 billion (from tax exemptions on Russian oil and gas supplies).

Russia has clearly made concessions to save the Customs Union and the single economic area, as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Well, it will be interesting to see if "in return" Minsk recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

However, as Die Welt reminds its readers, Belarus remains a major debtor and will have to start paying high interest rates on its loans from 2011. Two and a half months ago, the EU made it clear that it was ready to help Minsk broaden its political and economic relations, to simplify the visa regime and to allocate considerable financial aid. But Lukashenko should probably not count on this money now.

At the same time, Andrey Suzdaltsev, from the Higher School of Economics, argues that the critical moment will come in 2012, when Russia puts a new pipeline into operation which bypasses Belarus and stretches to the Russian seaport of Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea. When Moscow "unfetters" itself from Belarus, many things might change. After all, despite the reconciliation between the Kremlin and Lukashenko, no one believes that their relationship is as good as it once was.

At any rate, no matter what anyone might think about the presidential election in Belarus and its results, Aleksandr Lukashenko has achieved his goal to become president for the fourth time:  his inauguration is to take place before 19 February.