THE VOTE THAT CHANGED NOTHING

On 10 December, the chairman of Moldova's Constitutional Court, Dmitry Pulbere, said that the votes on the main and additional lists in the 28 November extraordinary parliamentary elections will be counted within 10 days.

Taking such a decision, the Constitutional Court relied on two main points: inaccuracies in the figures and corrections in copies of the final protocols that were presented to representatives of candidates and differed from the original protocols posted on the CEC website, Pulbere said. Representatives of candidates had no access to additional voter lists after the voting.

Meanwhile, it was announced earlier that following the 28 November elections, four parties made it into the Moldovan parliament: the Communist Party, Democratic Party, Liberal Party and Liberal Democratic Party.

The country has been affected by a political crisis for almost two years - none of the parties has been able to gain a foothold in power. The communists lost power, while their opponents cannot possibly hold it down. Because of this, early parliamentary elections have been called twice.

Parliamentary elections were held in Moldova on 5 April 2009. The Communist Party won the elections, gaining 60 of the 101 seats in parliament (Communist Party leader Vladimir Voronin served as president from 2001 to 2009). Three opposition parties also gained seats. However, the new parliament failed to approve a presidential candidate and, in accordance with the law, was disbanded.

On 29 July, the country held a new election, the outcome of which led to the creation of the ruling coalition (Alliance for European Integration) composed of the Democratic, Liberal and Liberal Democratic parties as well as the alliance Our Moldova which failed to overcome the electoral barrier this time. In this regard, Communist Party leader Vladimir Voronin resigned from his post as president on 2 September. On 25 September 2009, a new government headed by the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Vlad Filat, was approved. However, since the Alliance for European Integration also did not have enough votes to approve the candidacy of the president, the speaker of parliament and leader of the Liberal Party, Mihai Ghimpu, became acting president.

In an attempt to resolve the political crisis in early September, the Moldovan authorities decided to hold a referendum on changing the mechanism of the presidential election, but its results were not recognized because of the low turnout.

As a result, repeated early parliamentary elections were held in the country on 28 November this year, which, however, had little effect on the alignment of political forces in the country. In order for the ruling coalition to be stable, its members need to control at least 61 mandates out of 100 - it is the number of votes required for approving the candidacy of the president.

In early December, many media reported that the Communist Party and the Democratic Party, headed by Marian Lupu, had created a centre-left coalition. This was stated by the leader of the Communist Party, Vladimir Voronin. But the next day, the Moldovan Democrats denied the news of an alliance with the Communists. Lupu reiterated that the coalition negotiations were continuing.

It is noted that even before the 28 November elections, the two parties put forward a number of conditions and announced possible collaboration. It must be remembered that the current leader of the Democrats used to be a member of the Communist Party in the past, but then he walked away from his companions and headed the Democratic Party.

However, the alliance of communists and democrats still has only 57 seats (42 communists and 15 democrats), which again makes it possible to form a parliament and government, but not to choose the president.

Meanwhile, there are two external factors that are able to affect the situation in Moldova. It is Russia and Romania.

Thus, in the midst of the negotiations on forming a coalition, Chisinau was visited by the head of the Russian presidential administration, Sergey Naryshkin. According to most observers, Naryshkin's main goal was to create a ruling coalition with the communists in Moldova. Moscow is convinced that the communists are oriented to Russia more than others in their foreign policy, and, accordingly, the Kremlin still stakes on the Communist Party. This is quite remarkable, because it is believed that the communists lost power just because they attempted to move away from Russia and get closer to the West.

"My short visit is linked, of course, with the objective of bilateral relations between Russia and Moldova. We understand the complex socioeconomic situation in Moldova, and we understand the causes of the political crisis that led to early parliamentary elections. We see that in the centre there are problems of statehood, sovereignty and search for geopolitical orientation, and we understand that only a strong and truly effective government of Moldova is able to solve these problems, and we would also like to see them resolved in the context of strategic partnership between Russia and Moldova," the head of the Russian presidential administration stressed.

It is noted that Voronin has recently frequently travelled to Moscow to meet with Putin and Medvedev. At the same time, a year before the parliamentary elections, the Democratic Party concluded a cooperation agreement with United Russia. Lupu also "suspiciously" distanced himself from all the "anti-Russian initiatives of Ghimpu".

Naturally, in Chisinau Naryshkin held talks with the leader of the Democratic Party as well. According to some reports, this meeting was also attended by the Moldovan oligarch Vladimir Plakhotnyuk who, as some remember, had been friends with the communists and is now number two on the Democratic Party ticket.

There is talk that in the proposed alliance of communists and democrats, Plakhotnyuk can get the post of prime minister, while Lupu will become president and Voronin - speaker of parliament. At the same time, most government members will be from the Communist Party. According to another version, Voronin insists that Lupu should renounce presidential ambitions.

Returning to Naryshkin's visit, we note that many observers believe that the results of his visit are not too distinct, largely because of the Communist Party's position.

Another significant external force influencing the political situation in Moldova is Romania. Relatively recently, in an interview with Romania Libera, Romanian President Traian Basescu did not rule out that Moldova and Romania could merge in the next 25 years. According to the Romanian leader, this turn of events would be a stimulus for the further democratization of Ukraine and Kiev's aspirations to join the European Union.

Basescu added that his country will never sign a border agreement with Moldova, as it "will have legalized the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact." It must be remembered that one result of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was the return to the Soviet Union of Bessarabia which remained under the authority of Romania from 1917 to 1940.

In addition, the Romanian president does not trust Moscow, as Russia keeps its troops in the Dniester region and has extended the lease of its naval base in Sevastopol until 2042. According to Basescu, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Dniester region will become a kind of "test" that Moscow should take.

Here, we must add that the Dniester conflict in general is a test for all the political forces in Moldova - both internal and external. And no-one knows how to pass it so as to ensure that "the wolves are sated and the sheep intact". And even if someone knows, they are not certain that such a scenario is realizable.

Meanwhile, the LDP leader and Prime Minister Vladimir Filat said that the chances of recreating the formerly ruling Alliance for European Integration are very high. It is assumed that the three parties - Liberal Democratic, Liberal and Democratic parties - will come together and find two votes in the Communist Party to elect the president.

The West is primarily interested in this turn of events. In particular, the US embassy in Moldova says in a statement that Washington hopes the country's political elite will not stop working together to create an efficient and united government, which will continue the programme of democratic reforms and economic stability and ensure the progressive development of relations with the West.

One of the major conductors of Western policy in Moldova is Mihai Ghimpu, who, incidentally, refused to go to the recent CIS summit in Moscow. The acting Moldovan president calls the Commonwealth "a granny in her death throes". As for a possible alliance of communists and democrats, Ghimpu said that in that case, his party will never support a presidential candidate from the coalition.

It is clear that the decision of Moldova's Constitutional Court to recount the votes is of benefit to the communists who believe that the elections were accompanied with numerous violations that cost them about 10 per cent of the vote.

It is also worth adding that there is still a chance to elect a president (by a coalition in any combination), if it is a neutral candidate that does not belong to any of the parties, but is equally respected by all...