KOREAN "WAR OF NERVES"

The situation in the Korean Peninsula has deteriorated dramatically. On 23 November, North Korea carried out artillery strikes on the South Korean island of Yonphendo near the demilitarized zone in the Yellow Sea.

North Korea's artillery fired about 50 shells at the island on which about 1,300 people live. There was panic. Some residents took shelter in bunkers, while others tried to get on to boats and reach the mainland. Two marines were killed and 16 people were wounded.

The South Korean authorities reacted promptly. Troops were put on high alert and F-16 jets were sent to the area of the shelling.

In response, Pyongyang sent a protest note to the South Korean authorities against the conducting of military exercises in a nearby region, describing them as a cover for preparing provocations.

The world community, for the most part, sided with Seoul, although it emerged later that the South Korean side had been conducting exercises during which shells were fired near the North Korean border, which could have provoked the northerners' attack.

Diplomacy stepped in. As expected, Beijing and Washington were to the forefront. China, in particular, invited the parties to start negotiations in December. In response, Seoul and Tokyo - US allies - both said "no".

Initiatives by Washington aimed at winning over China, are also deadlocked, although the White House is well aware that the Celestial Empire will not allow a united Korean state in close alliance with the United States to appear on its border.

Washington is also well aware, given the fact that the North Koreans have nuclear weapons, that it will be very difficult to turn the tide in favour of Seoul in an open war, while forming an international coalition alongside the lack of major success in Afghanistan and Iraq is problematic.

Thus Washington prefers diplomatic means - including tougher international sanctions against Pyongyang. However, success here is possible only with open support from China, since Beijing is the only player whose opinion is accepted in Pyongyang.

That is why the US chose to put pressure on China, not on North Korea, demonstrating in parallel its loyalty to ally South Korea in every way. The day after the artillery strikes, the US State Department issued a statement highlighting China's role as a key player in the region.

China does not like the fact that North Korea is a nuclear country which could prompt a nuclear arms race in the region - with Japan; stability is paramount for the Chinese economy. This means that pushing North Korea into a corner is also of no benefit to Beijing. Otherwise, Pyongyang could move beyond control, which would be fraught with even greater danger.

However, not all analysts are convinced that a unification of the two Koreas would be of benefit to the United States. The Americans can use the confrontation between the Koreas as a pretext for deploying new military bases in the southern part of the peninsula; if the two halves united, the levers of control over Seoul would be lost.

At the same time, the White House does not limit itself to mere diplomacy. The George Washington aircraft carrier was sent to the shores of South Korea to take part in four-day US-South Korean naval exercises. Their goal was no secret - a show of force to curb the North Korean authorities.

However, many experts and diplomats recall that these measures had yielded no significant results in the past. Pyongyang responded to these developments with a new, extremely harsh warning. A similar reaction followed from Beijing.

Worst of all, Seoul threatened Pyongyang with retaliation. In his address to the nation, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak apologized for the deaths and warned that he would not leave their neighbour's actions unpunished: North Korea would pay a high price for new provocations.

Lee Myung-bak accepted full responsibility for having failed to protect the island's inhabitants, four of whom were killed in the attack, Interfax reported.

He added that under current conditions, Pyongyang is unlikely to "renounce its military adventurism and nuclear programme". "Further patience and goodwill on our part will lead to even bigger provocations," ITAR-TASS quoted the president as saying. "From now on, we will make the North pay a price for them."

The South Korean leader did not specify exactly how Seoul intends to respond to possible provocations by North Korea in the future. But in the current unfavourable circumstances, the escalation of tensions is fraught with the possibility of full-scale conflict. After all, nobody knows the exact limit of the "war of nerves".

South Korea is governed by conservatives who have long wanted to end the policy of rapprochement with North Korea. Seoul no longer likes the "Sunshine Policy" in relations with the North, as declared by the southerners' former leader Kim Dae-jung.

In addition, the situation may be exacerbated by the desire of North Korean security forces to gain a foothold in an internal struggle with supporters of liberalization and win the support of the country's alleged future leader, Kim Jong-un.

When politics is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye", the consequences can be very dangerous and unpredictable.