TERRORISTS CHANGE TACTICS

In late September, European intelligence agencies reported the prevention of a series of major attacks on France, Germany and the UK. It was reported that terrorists planned to take hostages in several cities, including Paris, Frankfurt and London. The terrorist attacks were planned to a scenario similar to the events of 2008 in the Indian city of Mumbai, where nearly 200 people were killed and over 30 were injured as a result of militant attacks on hotels, shops and the city's railway station.

As reported, the terrorist attacks were averted at an early stage, thanks to the efforts of the intelligence agencies of different countries. One of the most dramatic of the counter-terrorist operations were US drone strikes on remote mountain areas beyond the control of the Pakistani and Afghan authorities on the Afghan-Pakistani border. Militant training bases are located there and it is also believed to be the hiding place of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. The American aircraft succeeded in destroying about a hundred fighters, including the alleged organizers of the failed terrorist attacks in Europe. Thus, the attacks had clearly been planned by the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, intelligence services from different countries recently reported that there are people with German passports in the tribal areas on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. According to several of the European media, German citizen Ahmad Siddiqui, who was arrested in Afghanistan this summer, was the first to give information about imminent terrorist attacks.

The Daily Telegraph writes that, according to Siddiqui, the terrorists were sent to Britain by the Pakistani Al-Qaeda commander, Ilyas Kashmiri, who is personally connected to Osama bin Laden. Kashmiri sent a terrorist group to the UK and Germany which had been recruited from among European citizens of the Muslim faith.

Incidentally, Kashmiri is suspected of organizing the terrorist attack on Mumbai. Interpol has issued an international arrest warrant for him, at India's request. The Daily Telegraph quotes investigators as saying that Kashmiri maintained contact with the American David Coleman Hadley, who was commissioned by al-Qaeda and who visited Mumbai shortly before the attacks to gather information.

In addition, the Pakistani authorities announced that the US missile strikes had killed several militants, including five German nationals. Against this background, the German media reported that several people known for their radical views left Hamburg last year, probably for North Waziristan. Moreover, the German Interior Ministry reported that about 70 of the country's citizens had undergone military training in Afghanistan and Pakistan and some of them had already returned home.

Meanwhile, last month it also became known that a drone strike on North Waziristan had killed a British citizen - a certain Abdul Jabbar who lived in the Pakistani Punjab.

Jabbar was specially trained to lead the "Islamic Army of Great Britain" - a branch of al-Qaeda in the UK - which aimed to carry out the terrorist attacks in Germany, Britain and France, according to British intelligence sources quoted by the BBC. Apparently, Ilyas Kashmiri also has links with Islamic extremists in Britain.

On 5 October, 12 people were arrested on suspicion of terrorist activities in France after two raids in the south - in Marseilles and Bordeaux. The arrest of three of the suspects was made possible thanks to the detention of French citizen Ryad Hannouni in Italy on 5 October. He was arrested near the train station in Naples with equipment for making explosive devices.

According to CNN, Ahmad Siddiqui also said during interrogation that a possible organizer of the failed terrorist attacks in Europe was Sheikh Yunis al-Mauretani -third in the al-Qaeda hierarchy. Al-Mauretani is presumably a native of North Africa and is hiding on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Allegedly, al-Mauretani planned to travel to Europe with two other people - a Frenchman of Algerian origin, Nouamane Meziche, and a German of Iranian descent, Shahab Dashti. It is reported that they were members of the terrorist group with which Siddiqui left Hamburg in the spring of 2009.

As a result of these events, the level of terrorist threat in the UK was raised to "severe", while the French authorities considered it time to move to the "red level" of alarm. This is the second highest level of danger.

Authorities in the US, Britain and Japan issued statements calling on their citizens to abstain altogether, or at least to exercise extreme caution while travelling in Europe - especially when using public transport and visiting attractions.

It is notable that, according to British intelligence, terrorists consider Prince Harry to be the prime target for attack. As is known, Harry, who served in Afghanistan, is third in line to the British throne.

Thus, it is clear that the authorities in European countries continue to fear terrorist attacks. After all, al-Qaeda's training camps in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and East Africa continue to train new militants, including, according to various intelligence agencies, hundreds of suicide bombers. And some of them, unfortunately, have EU and US passports.

Attacks are becoming even more realistic as NATO increases pressure on the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and the Afghan-Pakistani border. Incidentally, it is expected that the international forces under NATO command will soon launch a major operation across the entire Afghan campaign. At the same time, the militants' flight from Afghanistan to Pakistan and frequent US drone attacks on Pakistani territory cause serious problems to relations between Washington and Islamabad.

What conclusion can be drawn here? The terrorists' focus of activity is clearly shifting towards Europe. The militants have chosen tactics that make it difficult to catch them - they are trying to recruit people who were born, or who live permanently, in Europe or the United States and can thus travel freely in these countries.

In this light, the European Commission plans to adopt a series of new anti-terrorism measures soon. It is still not known what these measures will be. The Europeans are also looking for ways to communicate with citizens, to inform them about the threat of terrorist attacks, without frightening them or causing panic.

Generally, the terrorists, driven into a tight corner by the Americans and NATO in Afghanistan and Pakistan, are dispersing to the rest of the world. For example, the Yemeni cell of al-Qaeda - Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) - continues to expand; this was reported with some anxiety by US intelligence agencies as early as August. Following the offensive by US forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Al-Qaeda is gradually declining there, while the cell in Yemen is coming to the fore and may thus become a major regional terrorist base.

On 6 October, in the Yemeni capital of Sana'a, a British embassy vehicle came under fire from a grenade thrower. As a result, a top British diplomat was wounded. It was noted that the attack was carried out two days after the government increased security for foreign embassies. On the same day, a shooting occurred in the building of the Yemeni branch of the Austrian oil company OMV. One of the company's employees, a French citizen, was killed.

Almost a year ago, a resident of Nigeria, trained in Yemeni terrorist camps, tried to carry out a terrorist attack on a flight from Amsterdam-Detroit.

In addition, it is believed that a native of the United States, Anwar al-Awlaki, is hiding in remote areas in Yemen. He is engaged in active propaganda to young American and European Muslims and is using the most modern technical means. According to many experts, al-Awlaki is now more dangerous than the semi-mythical Osama bin Laden.

"I am deeply concerned about the situation in Yemen. The attacks send an alarming signal, to which the international community must respond," says Jerzy Buzek, chairman of the European Parliament.

Buzek also highlighted the current economic and political problems in Yemen, where not only al-Qaeda is operating: the local authorities also face Shiite rebels in the north and separatism in the south.

Meanwhile, we should not forget that there are other terrorist organizations - branches of al-Qaeda or close partners - which operate in Maghreb, the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa and, judging by the latest developments in the region, they are also seeking to gain a foothold in Central Asia.

Also, according to a recent statement by Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, recent terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus, including the bombings in Pyatigorsk, Stavropol and Vladikavkaz, were prepared abroad.