EVEN THE BAYKE COULD NOT PREDICT THE RESULT...

For the first time in its history, Kyrgyzstan is changing its system of government: from presidential to parliamentary. Whichever parties can form a majority coalition in parliament will have the right to elect the speaker and the cabinet. The president's powers have been curtailed, and the head of state will act as arbitrator in disputes between the legislative and executive branches of power. The presidential race involved 29 political parties, which is a record for Kyrgyzstan. All in all, about 3 thousand people on various party lists vied for the 120 seats available in the new parliament. Preliminary results suggest that five parties have emerged on top.

The beginning

"It's even more interesting than watching a World Cup draw," said one grizzled 'bayke' (mode of address to older men in Kyrgyzstan) to another venerable elder with a cup of tea in his hand.

- "Who will you vote for?"

- "I won't vote!" answered the old man in a somehow offended manner.

- "Are you serious! There will be a war..."

I'm sitting at a nearby table. "Excuse me, Bayke, why war?"

We are already accustomed to the fact that not only specially trained and certified specialists discuss politics in Kyrgyzstan. Ask anyone, and you will get a forecast - a complete picture of the balance of forces and all sorts of scenarios. The country is used to living "on a volcano" - two revolutions, two fugitive presidents and, finally, armed conflict in the south. There are at least four dead, hundreds injured and thousands of refugees...

- "What else if not war, sonny (the bayke seemed overjoyed with "independent ears" to address). My son is working in Russia. He called and said: 'Dad, will you go to the polls? See who is with Russia and elect them...'"

I ask "Why war?"

- "Because without Russia... (he waved his hand) pah!... they fight each other..."

Unexpected result

The polling stations closed 12 hours ago. All seems quiet. There are no armed mobs in the streets, no looters, and the morning seems even somewhat sleepy... So the elections were successful. But the predictions of the political scientists (there are several people who call themselves such in Kyrgyzstan, and they comment on anything, sometimes even paying to get their "expert opinion" published) did not come true ... You can sigh with relief.

But this result was not expected. According to the popular vote, the Ata-Zhurt party has topped the poll; at its core officials and close partners of expelled President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. The party, which was hastily knocked together just a few months before the election, managed to "gain" votes. The boldest predictions said that Ata-Zhurt could achieve representation in the new parliament, but as a minority. Although they have long distanced themselves from the fugitive head of state, this grouping is still known for being supporters of the former government. One of its leaders, Kamchibek Tashiyev, who was a member of parliament and then Minister of Emergencies under Bakiyev, walked out of a cabinet meeting, slamming the door and accusing the president of pursuing the wrong policy of development for the country, and then vigorously defended the same Bakiyev as he hid in his native village to escape the opposition that had seized power. The top five in the party also includes Nariman Tyuleyev. He is one of the most enigmatic but, at the same time, public politicians. People first learned about him when he literally revived the Kyrgyz railway. Then he became mayor of Bishkek, which is quite an important position. After all, almost half the republic's population lives in the capital, and there are major enterprises, foreign and local firms, supermarkets, casinos illuminating the surroundings with their sophisticated lights, expensive cars and real estate... Within a short period, Tyuleev began to enjoy great support from indigenous Bishkek residents. There were stories that when he had a day off, he walked around the town, summoned all the municipal officials and handed brooms and rakes to his haughty subordinates in expensive suits, making them clean up the garbage... However, this former mayor was also the subject of other rumours - namely, his links to the Bakiyev clan. People seriously believe that Nariman Tyuleyev is nothing other than a "purse" for Maksim, the son of the runaway president. Somewhere in the depths of the Interior Ministry there are criminal cases initiated by the new government charging Tyuleyev with embezzling state funds and abuse of office. It is already clear that Tyuleyev is a member of the new parliament and it seems that those cases will gather dust in detectives' offices for some time. Also among the winners is Marat Sultanov, another former minister in Bakiyev's team. He first headed the Finance Ministry and then the Social Fund. In charge of Ata-Zhurt is Myktybek Abdyldayev, former head of administration for President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Most Ata-Zhurt functionaries are southerners - natives of the Osh and Jalalabad regions. It was there that ethnic conflict erupted in June. Some experts say, with open satisfaction, that if these party members had not got into parliament, the south could have rebelled. Generally, the North-South question is a painful one in Kyrgyzstan. The people of the two regions quietly dislike each other, and some politicians skilfully exploit this division.

"We did not work in vain, because our party has experienced so much - so much dirt and so much black PR. Our opponents are always saying that we are Bakiyev's people and so on. But our party, all our guys, are of the common people," says Timur Otorbayev, a worker at the Ata-Zhurt party's campaign headquarters. As soon as the results became known, people appeared at the party's offices in high spirits, congratulating each other. They say if another party leader, Kamchibek Tashiyev, returns from the southern regions, they will arrange a party.

... But the Social Democrats behaved as if they had failed to get into the parliament. There were a few supporters smoking, in low spirits, around the entrance to their office, although Almazbek Atambayev's party took the "silver" medal - they came second. Nevertheless, the leader of the Social Democratic Party has been silent. On his behalf, Farid Niyazov, campaign headquarters coordinator, commented: "I would not say that we are very satisfied, but we accept the results as they are and the overall situation means that the elections turned out this way. We will accept the results that the CEC announces." It is worth noting that the Social Democratic Party is less than one per cent behind Ata-Zhurt and received just over eight percent. It is clear that this came as a shock to Atambayev. So much struggle and desire to occupy the post of prime minister... only to be beaten by supporters of their former president and main opponent.

The first party listed on the ballot paper - that of General Feliks Kulov - was only in third place after the count. Updating the CEC webpage every 10 seconds, people in his office were left wondering why. According to observers, they were in the lead in many areas, but in the end they only took "bronze". Kulov's deputy did not even try to hide his disappointment and frustration. "I would not say that the results satisfy us. We are one of the two parties that did not use administrative resources, we are one of the two parties that did not bribe voters, we are one of the two parties that did not engage in black PR, but we are the only party that did not do any of this," mumbled Iron Feliks' deputy in one breath, as if trying to justify himself. How about Kulov himself? Former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, incidentally, worked closely enough with Bakiyev. First there was a tandem, and then Kulov suddenly became an opposition figure, just as he had been to the first president of Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akayev. Yes, Iron Feliks did get votes, but many - grandmothers and some intellectuals - voted out of habit. Others would not forgive him his softness in allowing Bakiyev to take the reins of power. Now Kulov hints at his willingness to return the country to presidential rule. Why was there a referendum, after which Otunbayeva became president, in which, according to the new constitution, all power goes to the parliament after the elections? Kulov, in his peculiar manner, replied briefly: "In conditions of political chaos and anarchy, one person should be responsible for maintaining order in the country. And with a parliamentary system, responsibility is blurred." But people voted for him for one good reason. From the outset of the election race, his party posed as a supporter of the warmest and friendliest relations with Russia. And the Kremlin made it clear whom it supports. In Kyrgyzstan, adverts were aired showing Feliks Kulov at a meeting with Russia's leader Medvedev, head of the One Russia Party..." Apparently, hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz, guest workers in Moscow, Yekaterinburg and elsewhere, wanted to tell their families at home whom to elect. 

The results were unexpected by many, although, as experts note, the major parties themselves had a hand in what happened. The Social Democrats, Ata Meken and Ak-Shumkar, whose leaders are members of the provisional government, got carried away by the struggle, became mired in scandals, lost their ratings and split the vote. The surprise was that the last of the top five - those that broke the five-per-cent barrier, giving them the right to take seats in parliament - was Ata-Meken, the party considered to be the favourite in the race. After the announcement of the results, the party said twice that its leader Tekebayev was willing to meet reporters, but the meeting was cancelled both times. By the way, the initiators of the parliamentary form of government only just broke the five-per-cent barrier, that is, they almost failed to get into the parliament.

But ... nobody got an absolute majority, so many are wondering what coalitions and blocs are possible, without which it will not be possible to form a cabinet. And there are hidden problems for the future. Whether the country will be a parliamentary republic or whether there will be a referendum and a return to a presidential republic depends on how the forces are grouped in the legislature. Even the experts hesitate to make forecasts on this issue. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has become the first state in the CIS, not to mention the Central Asian region, in which all power has gone to the legislature - the Zhogork Kenesh.

The president, as arbitrator between the branches of government - this is the head of state's role under the new constitution - called upon all political forces to be sensible. "Victory will go to those who received the votes. Being defeated is also a great art," Otunbayeva said in her video diary.

Local human rights activists and international experts are mostly in agreement. The popular vote was generally free of fraud and manipulation, although minor shortcomings still occurred. It was noted that members of commissions and polling stations lacked training while many names were not on the lists. The latter problem was resolved on the spot with additional lists, while committee members were advised by observers at work. But all this was "forgiven." After all, there had been little time for preparation, plus there is a complex socioeconomic situation in the country.

After processing 100 per cent of the protocols from election commissions, the CEC reported that the new parliament will be formed by five political parties: Ata-Zhurt (8.88 per cent), The Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (8.04 per cent), Ar-Namys (7.74 per cent), Republic (7.24 per cent) and Ata-Meken (5.6 per cent). The parliament is so disparate that they will have to learn to negotiate; otherwise they will not be able to form a government. Meanwhile, people still suffer from low salaries, poor public utilities and medical care, unemployment and hunger.