DIRECT DIALOGUE

The Middle East is likely to witness great changes. With the mediation of the United States, the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue has resumed. But will the conflicting parties have enough wisdom and determination to end the protracted conflict? Assumptions on this account are more sceptical than optimistic, despite a successful round of negotiations in Washington.

Hard way

The direct talks between the conflicting parties, represented by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas, were hosted by US President Barack Obama. The US president said that the conflict between Israel and Palestine could be resolved within a year. The parties must reach a compromise on the most complex issues, including borders, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Jewish settlements and the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their homes. According to the US president, in the end, there will appear an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state that will live side by side in peace and security with Israel and other neighbours. "The hard work is just beginning," Obama said. Years of mistrust will not disappear overnight, he said. While each side has its own legitimate and long-standing interests, the current situation in the Middle East cannot continue as it is.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the resumption of direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians as exemplary, calling them the "last chance" for peace in the Middle East.

In turn, the leaders of Israel and Palestine make it clear that they are ready to end the long-lasting conflict. Binyamin Netanyahu said that Israel wants peace with the Palestinians and called Mahmud Abbas his "peace partner". "Our goal is to achieve peace between Israelis and Palestinians. If we do not achieve it, everyone will lose. We do not need short-term breaks between outbursts of terror," said the Israeli prime minister.

For his part, the Palestinian leader said "we will not spare our strength and will work continuously to end the negotiations successfully". At the same time, Mahmud Abbas called on Israel to freeze its settlement activity in the areas that will form part of a future Palestinian state and lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip.

Most experts agree that Barack Obama is taking a risk, trying to resolve the issue on which several generations of American leaders have foundered. The current US administration wants to show that it has learned from the mistakes of its predecessors. But the main point is that Washington is no longer interested in keeping in limbo the issue which is one of the fundamental causes of conflict between the United States and the West and radical circles in the Islamic world. In addition, several factors point to the rightness of the current moment for achieving a swift peace in the region of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

One of these is the completion of the US "combat mission" in Iraq, which may at least partially reduce tensions in the Middle East. Another very noteworthy aspect is that Obama's mediation efforts are supported by the League of Arab States, which in fact approved the initiation of direct talks between Israel and Palestine.

Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that the positions of the conflicting parties on the fundamental issues of a Middle East settlement, including the borders and the status of Jerusalem, are diametrically opposed, and this makes many observers sceptical about the prospects for the Washington talks.

The fact that the negotiations began against the background of a deteriorating situation on the West Bank inspires no optimism either. Hamas militants who oppose direct dialogue with Israel shot dead four Israelis - two men and two women - near Hebron. One was pregnant. Two other Israelis were wounded during the shooting. Hamas leaders called the shooting a "heroic operation". However, the world community condemned these acts of terror. According to White House spokesman, Robert Gibbs, this attack shows how far the opponents of the peace process are willing to go in order to stop it.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said that the killing of his country's citizens once again shows why Israel is not going to compromise on its demands for security guarantees.

It is important to note that the leadership of the Palestinian Authority took immediate measures to punish the criminals. About 250 members of Hamas were arrested across the West Bank. The US administration stated that the reaction of the Palestinian side, headed by Mahmud Abbas, did not go unnoticed in Washington.

Meanwhile, Palestinian radicals clearly defined their position on the Washington-initiated direct talks between Tel Aviv and Ramallah. Hamas leader Isma'il Haniyah said the talks are clearly a failed political process, because they are "based on a Zionist-American diktat and the helplessness of the Arab world". At an urgent press conference in Gaza, representatives of the extreme Palestinian factions, who are perceived as terrorists in Israel and the West, announced that they regard the policy of the Palestinian Authority as treacherous, because it agreed to hold talks with the Israeli authorities. The Palestinian radicals announced that they will continue the armed struggle against the "Zionist occupiers".

It should be noted that a representative of the Palestinian negotiating team, Nabil Sha'ath, one of Abbas' closest associates, said on the eve of his departure from the United States that "any peace agreement with Israel would be possible only after the terms are approved by the whole of Palestinian society". Obviously, Sha'ath's words were addressed primarily to the political forces of Palestine which oppose negotiations with Israel. The Palestinian diplomat's statement seemed to imply that, if agreements are reached during the talks, the Abbas government will put the agreements to a nationwide referendum. However, it is still not clear how the Palestinian Authority, sitting in Ramallah, hopes to secure fundamental approval from the political forces controlling the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, the voices of radical leaders of Israel strike up in unison with statements by extreme figures on the Palestinian side. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman believes that reconciliation with the Palestinians is impossible. He expressed confidence that "the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement, which includes an agreement to end the conflict, the absence of mutual claims and Israel's recognition as a state of the Jewish people, is a goal that cannot be attained either next year or in the next generation."

A chance for twelve months

Another important thread in the current Middle East peace process is Iran's reaction to the renewed Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Subjecting them to criticism, President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad predicted that they are doomed to failure. Resistance is the only way for the Palestinians to guarantee their rights, and Mahmud Abbas has no mandate to negotiate on behalf of the Palestinian people, he said.

A response from the Abbas administration was not long in coming. The Palestinian leader's press secretary said that Ahmadinezhad does not represent the Iranian people, since he strengthened his power by rigging the presidential election.

The response of several authoritative figures of the Arab world to Tehran's "gestures" was also quite notable. Prominent Lebanese Mufti Ali Juzo called on the Iranian leaders to "stop trading in the blood of the Palestinian people". Mufti said personally to Ahmadinezhad: "You've been threatening to wipe Israel off the face of the earth for a long time. But what you have done in reality: demonstrations inside Iran, slogans and posters 'incinerating' the Zionists is all talk, without a single real deed. So for how much longer will you go to the podium only in order to go to the podium?" The mufti called on the Iranians to leave the Palestinians alone and not to interfere in their affairs, for "you have already caused immense suffering to the Palestinians and have not done anything good in the name of the land of Palestine".

Interestingly, after the Iranian statements, Egypt decided to cancel a visit to Cairo by Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki, scheduled for 6 September. The reason for this demarche was the negative comment made by the Iranian foreign minister on Egyptian mediation in the negotiations between Israel and Palestine. Egyptian President Husni Mubarak even said that "the Arab world shares the concerns of the US, the UN and the EU regarding the nature of Iran's nuclear programme and is concerned about the possible transformation of Iran into a nuclear power."

Meanwhile, the days following the Washington talks confirmed the whole complexity of achieving progress on a Middle East settlement. As expected, the first round of direct talks was not followed by any strong statements indicative of a breakthrough. The top leadership of Israel and the Palestinian Authority agreed to meet regularly at intervals of two weeks, while negotiating teams on both sides will be working on a peace agreement between the meetings. But with the approach of the second Sharm el-Sheikh round of talks, scheduled for 14 September, the principal negotiators, under both internal and external pressure, expressed their positions in increasingly categorical tones. In particular, Mahmud Abbas, in an obvious allusion to the mediation work of the United States, said that if someone forces him to make concessions to the Israelis on the key issues, he "will collect his bags and leave". On issues of fundamental importance to the Palestinians, such as the refugees or the 1967 borders, there will be no concessions to Israel, he said. He also repeated his warning that the talks will end if Israel resumes the construction of Jewish settlements.

In a situation where it is becoming increasingly clear that the success of the negotiations will depend, above all, on Israel's ending its settlement policy, US President Barack Obama recommended that the Netanyahu government extend the moratorium on the construction of Jewish settlements which expires on 26 September. The US president expressed hope that the Israeli leadership will listen to his opinion in order to preserve the chances of achieving a comprehensive peace agreement based on the plan for "two states for two peoples".

Obviously, there is a real chance of a peaceful settlement in the Middle East. Whether it can be taken or not will become clear in the next twelve months allocated by the negotiating parties for a comprehensive peace agreement.