"ZERO HOUR" CLOSES IN

The second half of May witnessed several developments that directly or indirectly affected the situation in the region. Specifically, Baku was visited by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He arrived from Tehran where, to the surprise of many, a tripartite agreement was signed between Iran, Brazil and Turkey. Its implementation could significantly reduce the tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. Ankara's key involvement in this issue has convincingly demonstrated to the world the Turkey's growing role as an independent and influential power.

Meanwhile, during his brief but very busy visit to Baku, apart from participating in the unveiling of a monument to the great son of Turkey and the Turkic world, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Prime Minister Erdogan held important talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The two leaders discussed many issues relating both to bilateral relations and to regional security. Particular attention was paid to settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh.

Despite Armenia's strong opposition, Turkey is actively involved in the Karabakh settlement and is engaged in an intensive dialogue with the co-chairs of the Minsk Group - the USA, Russia and France. Those who hoped to destroy the fraternal bond between Turkey and Azerbaijan by the signing of the Zurich protocols have clearly been disappointed in their expectations. The Turkish leadership held a principled position and, in accordance with its public pledge, made the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the opening of borders conditional on Armenia's readiness to proceed with a practical withdrawal from the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

Asked about the future of the Turkish-Armenian protocols at a press conference after his visit to Baku, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara "speaks in a very open and clear language."

"What is the position? We have said that without a settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it is impossible for the Turkish Grand National Assembly to issue a positive resolution. This is very open and clear. We talked about this and explained it to all three co-chairs of the Minsk Group. They should be more active in this direction and explain the importance of this issue to Armenia. To do this, we also actively placed the Madrid question on the agenda. We included other issues as well. But we still do not see a sensitive approach to the issue from Armenia. As you know, although four months have elapsed since the Sochi meeting, there is still no progress here," said Erdogan.

According to the influential and well-informed Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, during Prime Minister Erdogan's visit to Baku, the possibility of Armenia's withdrawal from the first two of the seven districts surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh was also examined - the transformation of the Minsk Group's scheme for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from "5+2" to "2+3+2. The districts to be returned first are Kalbacar and Fuzuli. In return, according to the newspaper, Azerbaijan may open its border with Armenia. Turkish sources claim that such an agreement has allegedly been reached between the presidents of the United States and Russia.

Although this option was not announced officially by Turkey or Azerbaijan, the Armenian media and politicians began to worry and refute it. Thus, Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said that there were no talks about the "surrender" of any districts. This was a strange statement, if we recall that all the negotiating formats directly anticipate the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. But this confirms the validity of Baku's demands that the mediators and the international community should finally force Armenia to adopt a coherent position on the Madrid principles proposed by the Minsk Group.

For Azerbaijan, with very few exceptions, has accepted them. President Ilham Aliyev said at the joint press conference with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan: "We expect a similar approach from the Armenian side. Although about six months have passed since the formal submission of the proposal, we have still not received a positive response from the Armenian side. We see this as Armenia's attempt to gain time, not to take important steps to address the issue and thus make the negotiating process eternal. Of course, we cannot accept this. Therefore, the Armenian side should express its position. Either it gives a positive response to the proposal made by Russia, France and America and then we come closer to resolving the issue, or they answer in the negative and thus disrupt the negotiating process, and a new stage may begin between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If the Armenian side responds positively to the proposal and begins withdrawing its occupying forces from Azerbaijani territory, then, of course, Azerbaijan will open all borders with Armenia. All communications will open and, thus, full peace and security can be achieved in the region."

In addition to the Karabakh issue, the negotiations between Erdogan and Aliyev addressed the issues of bilateral cooperation in energy, transport and many other issues. Thus, referring to Baku's initiative to extend the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway to Naxcivan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that work was in progress in this area. From 17 June, Turkish Airlines will fly from Istanbul to Naxcivan three times a week.

One of the most important outcomes of Prime Minister Erdogan's visit was the adoption of a principled decision to establish a high level council of strategic cooperation. This structure will cover all aspects of bilateral relations and will be a very important step towards strengthening the alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. It was announced that experts from both countries will soon begin exploring the full range of issues, while the signing of relevant documents and the practical launch of the council will take place during President Ilham Aliyev's visit to Istanbul scheduled for 7-8 June.

Thus, strategic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey is strengthening and rising to new heights, while Armenia is gradually losing the support of its traditional patrons and is in deep diplomatic isolation. A cold shower for the Armenian politicians, media and general public was administered by Resolution No 2216, unanimously adopted by the European Parliament. Its author was Bulgarian MP Yevgeni Kirillov.

The document states: "Expressing concern that the rights of hundreds of thousands of refugees continue to be trampled on, the European Parliament states: in this context, the European Parliament demands the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territories to allow evicted residents to return to their homes. The European Parliament insists that Armenian troops should withdraw immediately from all the occupied Azerbaijani territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh."

At this stage, the European parliamentarians see the following solution: "Nagornyy Karabakh can be given a certain interim status, pending clarification of its final status, which, in turn, will make it possible to ensure peaceful coexistence and cooperation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani populations in this transitional period." In addition, "the European Parliament supports the intention of the executive bodies of the European Union to send a major observation mission to the region, which should contribute to the formation of an international peacekeeping force."

Armenian sources also report that during a recent visit to Yerevan, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Tina Kaidanov presented President Serzh Sargsyan with virtually an ultimatum - either he resumes the process of normalizing relations with Turkey and returns the territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh to Azerbaijan, or he faces total isolation.

The 37th session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, held in Dushanbe, also confirmed once again its support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and called on Armenia to begin withdrawing its troops from the occupied districts immediately. It will now be hard for Armenia's traditional partners, such as Iran and Syria, to ignore this decision and help Armenia openly.

Yerevan has nothing with which to prevent a course of events disastrous for Armenian ambitions. Attempts to squeeze out dividends with the so-called parliamentary elections in the "NKR" turned into an even greater failure. Unlike in previous years, even pro-Armenian MPs from Russia and Europe decided not to participate. The EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Catherine Ashton said about these elections: "I want to say that the EU does not recognize the constitutional and legal framework upon which the parliamentary elections were held in Nagornyy Karabakh this Sunday. This event should not become an obstacle to a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. I confirm our support for the OSCE Minsk Group and the work of the co-chairs aimed at resolving the conflict. I urge the parties to double their efforts to find a solution to the conflict through negotiations. I repeat that the EU is ready to continue contributing towards this goal."

Russia disappointed the Armenians even more. While commenting on the 23 May elections to the so-called "NKR" parliament, Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrey Nesterenko said that Moscow supports the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and does not recognize Nagornyy Karabakh as an independent state.

The Armenians, who are losing the diplomatic war with Azerbaijan, have stepped up their foreign lobbying activities and are even resorting to issuing provocative information and sabotage. First, pro-Armenian US congressmen propose the financing (?!) of a resettlement of Armenians from Iraq to Armenia (i.e. Nagornyy Karabakh), and then Armenia Today, citing an unnamed diplomatic source, issues information about the forthcoming appointment of the current French ambassador to Yerevan, Serge Smessov (judging by his name, he is an ethnic Armenian) as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group from France; this was immediately denied by Smessov himself. They also arrange promotional shows on the achievements of the Armenian military-industrial complex, although the Soviet-era industries inherited by Yerevan have degenerated and lie in ruins. But these episodes are not able to change the unfavourable course of events for Armenians.

According to Armtoday.info, political scientist Ruben Hakopyan, a member of a faction of the opposition Heritage Party, said that Armenia has been essentially sidelined from negotiations on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. Turkey is actively involved in discussions on the issue, and in formats where Armenia is not represented. Hakopyan noted that he had serious concerns that a solution would be imposed on the Armenian side. Perhaps the task of persuading Armenia of the inevitability of withdrawal from occupied Azerbaijani territories will have to be undertaken by Moscow, during the forthcoming visit by President Dmitriy Medvedev to Yerevan. He will go there after receiving Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan in Moscow.

Given Armenia's high dependence on international financial donations, particularly from Russia, Yerevan's room for manoeuvre is narrowing with each passing day. The Armenian game of stalling the negotiations on a peaceful settlement is coming to an end, and decisions are becoming irrevocable.