POLITICAL DON QUIXOTES

In Europe, a political force is taking shape, which the media presents as something unexpected or a kind of total surprise for the expert community, but certainly it is not such because everything that happens has quite a logical chain of causes and effects. Maybe not everyone is willing to admit it.

In early February, according to various estimates, from 100,000 to 300,000 inhabitants of Spain took to the streets in the centre of Madrid for the "March for Change", thus expressing their support for the party Podemos (We Can). The capital brought together representatives of almost all regions of the country - old and young people carried placards saying "One nation is invincible!" and "We can change history!". Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, speaking to his supporters, poetically said that "a wind of change is blowing in Europe". But literary comparisons did not end here. "Today Podemos is a political Don Quixote seeking to protect its people. Our country has long lacked this knight, and finally, he arrived. We have gathered here today to demonstrate our strength, unity and determination ... We have a chance. We have a symbol. Recall 2 May 1808. Who rose up against the French invasion? Not kings or generals - the population of Madrid rose up. This historical example is with us today. Our people will do away with the dishonesty and cowardice of modern rulers," Iglesias said.

Left-wing Podemos emerged on the political stage only a year ago, but over this time it managed to gain incredible popularity and even won 5 seats in the elections to the European Parliament in May 2014. El Pais says that according to a sociological study conducted three months ago, the party is supported by 27 per cent of voters, while the socialists - by 25.5 per cent of the population, and the ruling People's Party - 20 per cent. The party is more popular in Madrid, the Basque Country and Navarra. According to political analysts, supporters of Podemos have a good chance of winning the parliamentary elections in November 2015 although it is possible that they will be held earlier.

Pablo Iglesias - party leader and 35-year-old doctor of political sciences - is a full namesake of the famous Spanish Marxist, who lived at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries and became the father and creator of the still existing Association of Trade Unions and the Socialist Workers' Party. Iglesias is loved by the people, and he knows how to use his popularity, taking advantage of television and the Internet. By the way, Iglesias started his media rise in talk shows on little-known Spanish channels, as well as on the Iranian state-owned Hispan TV satellite channel, which broadcasts to Latin America. Little confuses Iglesias - neither his atheism in the most Catholic country in Europe, nor his ties with the Venezuelan government, nor difficulties threatening him.

Perhaps, the rapid political "career" of Podemos would not have attracted so much attention had it not been for its striking resemblance to Greek Syriza, which recently won the parliamentary elections in Greece. For example, the Spanish counterpart of Syriza also intends to fight the policy of "belt-tightening" for ordinary citizens in the name of overcoming the economic crisis and wants to break the quiet life of the two-party system that has dominated Spain since the 1970s. Podemos directly talks about its plans to get rid of "la casta" - the political and business elite of the country, which determines how the majority of residents of the country must live. The fact is that "We Can" positions itself as a truly people's party and, therefore, is going to take the path of nationalization, impose a tax on luxury, reduce the retirement age and the working week and, most importantly, to reconsider its relations with the European creditors. But do not confuse Podemos and Syriza with communists, because capitalism suits Podemos and Syriza, but with a kind of "popular" and "nationalist" amendment. In Spain, the real communists are behind Podemos by more than 20 per cent.

But what is going on? In fact, according to all reports, Spain seems to be successfully overcoming the economic recession as one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. The country's GDP is showing a growth. However, the external debt continues to grow due to falling production and loans to restructure the banking system, the prices of utilities and health care are still high, and there is a difficult situation on the real estate market. But most importantly, about 25 per cent of the population is unemployed (one of the highest in the EU), and up to 56 per cent of young people are jobless. Many of them belong to the so-called Ni-Ni generation (La generacion Ni-Ni), persons who appear to be frozen in their social development - they do not work or study, which means that they will be a dead burden on the national budget in the long-term. Therefore, demonstrations of "those outraged" have been held in Spain for more than one year and not only in Madrid. The basic requirements are the same - cancellation of austerity measures by the government, the resignation of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Brey and the demand to put an end to unemployment and corruption. But this is the first time that supporters of such demands are forming a political force that is able to come to power.

Some observers saw a bad sign in the comparison of Podemos and the famous character of Cervantes, who, of course, wanted to do good deeds, but fought windmills. The same is also said of Greek Syriza - populists, yet beautiful words do not help to overcome despair and poverty. According to some experts, all the statements of Iglesias, of course, cause sympathy, but it is not clear where he is going to find money for their implementation. Speaking about the possibility of the Greek scenario in Spain, Prime Minister Rajoy said that "making statements is very simple, but governing a country is very difficult". However, the current government is also able to do very little, at least in the eyes of the people. The prime minister is rapidly losing popularity and has lost more than half of the votes since the beginning of 2011, which is also furthered by a series of corruption scandals. Podemos, like Greek Syriza, has a squeaky clean past, and they claim that they aim for fairer reconstruction of Europe. But is this the only reason why the newly-created parties successfully beat the heavyweights of the political Olympus? The key point in answering this question is who the winner Syriza created a coalition with in Greece - nationalists from the Independent Greeks party.

The thing is that Europe, lulled by its success, is too relaxed in its hopes on system parties that are based on the traditional and well-studied division into the centrist "right" and centrist "left". The former have always expressed conservative ideas and represented the interests of the dominant social class with the aim of protecting private property, etc., while the latter spoke about social-democratic ideals and the need for social equality. But in any case, systemic forces could always negotiate and ensure stability. In addition, they have always stood for a single Europe together. But as states with different economies were neighbours, the ruling party and the business elite in Western European became even wealthier and more confident, while the middle class felt deterioration in the quality of life. The reason is mainly the redistribution of labour force, namely the influx from poorer countries of migrant workers who get not only salaries, but often quite high benefits. That is to say within the philosophy of neoliberalism business got the desired markets, and the middle class - huge competition for their jobs. All problems deteriorated after the crisis of 2008, when the slogans about equality amid division not into the usual "rich" and "poor", but "locals" and "incomers" acquired an entirely different connotation. So no one was surprised that in the latest elections to the European Parliament, conservatives, social democrats and liberals lost their positions quite considerably. In any case, they retained control, as well as the ability to negotiate, namely, to unite in the opinion of continuing reforms and austerity measures.

But in politics, as in nature, there is no vacuum, and here the extreme right and the extreme left appeared on stage, and as it turned out, they know how to negotiate too, which actually happened in Greece. By the way, this is not happening for the first time, if you remember that radicals opposed the European Constitution in 2005 from two different fronts together.

Thus, those who predict "Grecification" in Europe, bearing in mind that Greece may be followed by Spain, Portugal, Italy or maybe even France, should take into account that there will be two forces in this "European Spring". In the same France, such right radicals are rapidly gaining popularity - the National Front of Marine Le Pen, who welcomed Syriza's victory and criticizes the austerity measures and control from Brussels. A similar situation is observed in Italy, where supporters of the right-wing populist Northern League are very sympathetic to Le Pen herself. According to the Eurispes research institute, 55.5 per cent of residents of Italy believe that the country should withdraw from the euro zone. The activities of the far-right Independence Party, which may well come third or even second in the parliamentary elections this year, are becoming more and more successful in the UK. Similar trends are observed in Hungary, Finland and Ireland.

The political picture of the Old World is changing. This is already an accomplished fact. The only question is what these changes will lead to - a new form of joint European building or the collapse of the EU? For the time being, the union is divided into debtors and creditors, the "collapse" scenario no longer seems so unrealistic.