PERIOD OF IMPERIAL CONFLICTS

- There are  increasing signs of a cold war in relations between Russia and the West: economic sanctions, information and psychological confrontation, the Russian Federation is planning to deploy an air defence missile regiment equipped with S-400 "Triumph" missiles in Kamchatka, NATO intends to beef up its military potential in the Baltic countries, there is confrontation  in Ukraine and so forth. How will the new cold war differ from the cold war between the USSR and the West?

- Yes, there is whole complex of events pointing to the beginning of a cold war, but, in my view, things have not actually gone as far as that yet. For the moment, two important factors are missing: firstly, there is no obvious demarcation of ideologies; secondly, there is no internal decision by the sides to further the conflict. The current situation in the world differs considerably from the one at the time of the USSR. Unlike the USSR, Russia does not have plans to reorganise the world, so it does not pose a threat to the West.

The world has changed greatly from the point of view of geopolitics. Whereas the cold war took place in conditions of the bipolar world of the USSR and the USA, now there is a strong China, and other regional centres of power such as India, Brazil, Turkey, Iran and others. Nor is everything monolithic in relations between the USA and the EU as it was when the USSR existed. Since there is no obvious ideological content, the new cold war will be much tougher. That is, we are returning to the period of the early 20th-century imperialist conflicts, which were much more cynical and crueller than the confrontation in the Soviet times.

Ideology is of less significance than the interests that are taking shape in a tougher manner. The fact that there has not been a major war in Europe for a long time is a very important one. People have partially forgotten what war is; they do not believe that a major new armed conflict can start, which means that they are in denial. That was the situation before the First World War. People just did not understand how events could turn out. This makes the situation very unstable.

Added to this the vulnerability of the West owing to the economic crisis. Now the West is finding itself in a new spiral of socio-economic crisis. It has to be taken into account that the modern world is more interconnected. Telephone and Internet communications allow us to learn instantly from various sources what is happening on the other side of the planet. Completely different types of communications, the Internet, social networks and the media are shaping a different environment. The system of integrated communications is creating extensive possibilities for manipulating public opinion. If we add to this the economic and technological interdependence, then a new cold war will potentially be very dangerous.

- At some stage in the confrontation could Russia resort to extreme measures, let's say cut off gas supplies to Europe?

- Everything depends on the course that events take. Naturally, Russia could resort to extreme measures if a certain scenario were to take shape. Anything can happen. A year ago no-one would have believed that a real war could break out in Ukraine. Cutting off gas and oil supplies is quite possible. It is not without reason that Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev has stated that, in the event of Russia being cut off from the SWIFT international inter-bank payment system, Moscow's "response economically and otherwise will know no limits".

The concept of "no limits" could envisage every possible scenario. Cutting off the SWIFT payment system would be politically motivated, since that would amount to an economic blockade. VTB bank CEO Andrey Kostin has stated that cutting off the SWIFT payment system would amount to a declaration of war. Any blockade may serve as a reason for war. This means that on the level of statements we already find ourselves just one step away from dangerous scenarios like the cutting off the gas supplies, the start of military operations in other regions, let's say in the Baltic states and so forth. 

- And what about those countries like Azerbaijan that enjoy friendly ties with the West and with Russia as well. Won't it turn out that those countries will be faced with the choice - "either with me or against me"?

- Regarding his issue, it will be the same as it was during the previous cold war. The sides point to a selection of clearly defined allies who sympathise with one of the blocs and to relatively neutral states. Everything depends on the specific stand taken by these countries and on the development of the situation in the region of the greatest political confrontation. In that region where the tension is most acute, there will be a strict system of relations. For example, Europe was a region like that during the cold war. A more lenient position will be taken by the sides of the participants in the cold war in those regions where there is less confrontation. For the moment, it is difficult to judge how the conflict in the Southern Caucasus will manifest itself and in particular with regard to Azerbaijan. Baku is taking a sufficiently flexible stand and has room to manoeuvre. On the whole, there are problems in the Caucasus which can be activated such as the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, the threat of the penetration of Islamic terrorist groups and so forth.

- In what circumstances can Russia withdraw from Crimea and end its assistance to the rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk?

- There are no variants when it comes to Crimea, since Crimea has been annexed by Russia. As far as Donetsk and Luhansk are concerned, then everything depends upon how the authorities in Ukraine and the USA choose to develop events.  If federalisation is chosen, then there is a probability that the crisis will smoothly come to an end, although even the federalisation plan does not guarantee complete extrication from the crisis. The variant of using force which will result in the resistance in Luhansk and Donetsk being suppressed has no prospects at all since Russia will defend those regions. In Moscow they believe that Kiev's victory in a civil war will lead to NATO being stationed directly on the frontier with Russia.

- Which countries do you consider to be Russia's allies in the current confrontation with the West?

- Compared with the USSR, the Russian Federation has far fewer allies. There is the ODKB [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], within the framework of which some actions could be carried out; there is the much more rigid structure of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. These allies can be relied upon to a certain extent. Yes, Russia does have fewer allies, but there are advantages to that. Firstly, there is no need to render assistance to the system of alliances, which is a costly affair, both from a political and an economic point of view. Russia is not setting itself the task of refashioning the world. Moscow simply does not like the growing military and political pressure being exerted by the West.

Russia is not going to make anyone change their mind or attract anyone into their camp. We are not going to build big systems of alliances, but we shall gradually prepare for war. There will be an arms race, but not on such a gigantic scale as during the time of the USSR. The main accent will be on having sufficient amounts of the necessary cutting-edge weapons. That is, on the development of nuclear forces, on a fifth generation of fighter planes, submarines, strategic aviation, special operations forces which have shown how they operate in Crimea and, by way of example, in Ukraine.

A number of exercises have been conducted in the rapid deployment of large military contingents from one part of the country to another.  No other country in the world, including the USA, is capable of transferring its forces so swiftly. Therefore there is no reason to reinforce the armed forces to a large extent. It is impossible to imagine that Europe would set about creating a combat-ready million-strong army. Therefore Russia has sufficiently compact armed forces and state-of-the-art armaments.