"SLEDGE HAMMER"

Relations between the government and the military have deteriorated dramatically in Turkey. It all began with an article in the newspaper Taraf, which published a sensational story on 20 January alleging that a number of officers had prepared a coup, code-named "Sledge Hammer" (Balyoz) in 2003.

The publication alleges that Operation Sledge Hammer was aimed at whipping up tension in the country, with bombings in two Istanbul mosques during Friday prayers, creating a crisis in relations between Turkey and Greece (for which the conspirators were ready to down a plane over the Aegean Sea and blame the Greek Air Force), imposing a state of emergency, making mass arrests, seizing all public bodies, overthrowing the existing government and establishing a provisional one, as well as installing army representatives and civilian supporters of the coup as heads of government offices, banks, customs etc.

The general staff of the Turkish armed forces denied it all the next day, describing reports about the preparation of a military coup to overthrow Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government as an invention.

"No sane person with a conscience could accept these allegations," said a statement by the Defence Ministry, which has already arrested about 10 officers for "a leak of information ".

Taraf, meanwhile, continued to publish new "excerpts" from Operation Sledge Hammer, concerning the military's plan to arrest about 200,000 people who "resisted the coup", as well as lists of journalists who were to be arrested and "used" by the army.

Taraf also claims that the document, running to more than five thousand pages, was signed by the former commander of the First Field Army, Army General Cetin Dogan.

The retired general himself called the Taraf report complete nonsense and a "forgery". The newspaper took a real plan for virtual training exercises and seminars, totally distorted it and presented it as a planned coup, he said. A similar statement was made by the Defence Ministry, stating in a press release that the plan for the seminar, distorted by the newspaper, was part of exercises conducted by the general staff from 2003-2006 and was intended to address educational objectives to repel a possible foreign threat in the Istanbul-headquartered First Field Army's area of responsibility.

However, the publication drew readers' attention to the fact that what the general staff calls a "virtual" Operation Sledge Hammer carries names that are far from being "virtual" - hundreds of personal cards, five thousand pages and not a single false name. The names of all the "virtual" enemies, including members of the ruling JDP, are real.

According to the newspaper, the plotters made a list of 150 state officials from the prime minister's secretariat, the ministries of finance and foreign affairs, customs etc. to be arrested. Further, each of them was given a different label: "radical Islamist", "Suleymancilar community supporter", "Nurcular", "wife wearing hijab", "his father is a mosque imam", " religious school graduate" etc.

Despite the general staff's sharply negative response, the government authorized Turkey's largest ever purge of the ranks of retired and active military personnel.

On 22 February, an operation was carried out to arrest more than fifty officers. In response, the commanders of all troops gathered in Ankara for an emergency meeting and, afterwards, the press picked up rumours of the impending resignation of the Turkish army leadership.

Now it was the government's turn to retreat. Immediately after a meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and army chief of staff Ilker Basbug, initiated by President Abdullah Gul, three former Air Force commanders were released. Among them are former commanders of the Turkish naval and air forces, Ozden Ornek and Ibrahim Firtina. However, on 26 February, the arrests resumed and another 18 officers were taken into custody. Apparently, this is not the end.

It is notable that in recent months eight high-ranking officials of the Turkish army have committed suicide.

Meanwhile, some observers note that the article in the Taraf newspaper ultimately played into the hands of the ruling party and, personally, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, although, in their opinion, future developments depends on the actions of the general staff. If the military elite remain calm and do not initiate another coup, the standing of the Turkish army, which has great political influence, will ultimately remain secure.

The fate of the government may be quite different. Turkey will hold parliamentary elections in 2012 and Erdogan is falling in the ratings. According to recent polls, his popularity rating has fallen below the level required for his party to form a government by itself.

One way or another, Sledge Hammer has dealt a serious blow primarily to domestic political stability in Turkey. We hope that this shock wave will not affect Ankara's foreign policy positions at such a difficult time.