NUCLEAR STORM, POSSIBLY IN TEACUP

The 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution in Iran marked the start of a new phase in the development of the crisis over Tehran's nuclear programme.

Speaking to tens of thousands of supporters in Tehran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran has produced the first batch of uranium enriched to 20% and has become a nuclear power.

"Iran is now a nuclear power," Ahmadinejad said.  "I want to say it loud and clear that the first batch of fuel enriched to 20% has been manufactured and transferred to the scientists."  In his words, Iran "can enrich uranium even to 80%, but it will not do so because there is no need for it."

This turn of events took place after talks about sending Iranian low-enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment and the manufacture of fuel components effectively failed.  The IAEA proposed that Tehran should send most of its uranium abroad for a period of about 1 year and thereby deprive itself of even the theoretical opportunity to manufacture a bomb.  The authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran insisted on a one-off exchange of uranium for the fuel rods, and by all means on Iranian territory.

The Western powers suspect that Iran is trying to build its own nuclear bomb, although it claims only to be developing its nuclear energy sector.  International experts are sure that uranium has to be enriched to 90% to make it weapon-grade.

The greatest concern is voiced in Israel, where it is believed that Iran's steps pose a threat to the very existence of that country.  However, Tehran insists that all its nuclear facilities are purely peaceful and warns that if they are attacked, there will be retaliation.

The Israeli air raid against the Iraqi nuclear centre in 1980 and recent large-scale exercises by the Israeli Air Force, in which pilots practised carrying out long-range raids, are mentioned increasingly frequently.

The statement by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, which was made in Baku, has once again confirmed the need for a more general approach to the Iranian problem.  Lieberman said that "Iran is not a regional problem anymore, and it cannot be resolved at regional level."

Ahmadinejad, for his part, warned Tel-Aviv against any attempt to attack Iranian nuclear facilities from the air and issued threats that he would destroy the Jewish state in retaliation.  "If the Zionist regime repeats its mistakes and launches a military operation, then we will have to put up fierce resistance and destroy it once and for all," the Iranian president said.

"We believe that nuclear weapons are inhumane weapons.  In addition, we believe that, in general, the era of the employment of nuclear weapons is already over.  Who can use this type of weapon at present?  Americans?  Did it help them in Iraq and Afghanistan?  No, it did not.  Nuclear weapons have already lost their effectiveness," Ahmadinejad said, in an interview with the Russian television station NTV.

Against this background, the United States and other Western powers are striving to achieve the imposition of UN sanctions against Tehran.  There is a problem of trust.  Russia and China oppose sanctions, for now, and advocate continuing political dialogue with Iran.

Western observers say that precisely the position of Moscow and Beijing, both of which have the right of veto at the UN Security Council, has "saved" Iran from "traumatizing" international sanctions.  However, in recent months Russian officials have more than once stated that Russia's patience also has limits.

In the mean time, the content of the IAEA report has become public, and it reads that Ahmadinejad's statements are most probably a bluff.  According to that document, Iran has only one cascade of 146 centrifuges.  This could enrich uranium to 20%.  The report reads that only about 10 kilograms of low-enriched 3.5% uranium was loaded into the cascade of centrifuges at the facility in Natanz.

Washington also doubts Iran's ability to enrich uranium to 20%, and the statements by Iranian authorities were described in the United States as more political than scientific or technological.  "Iran has made a number of statements which are based on politics, not on physics.  We do not believe they have the capability to enrich to the degree to which they now say they are enriching," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.  He once again stressed that Iran's refusal to end its nuclear programme has led the world to be more unified than at virtually any other point in many years.

At the same time, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said that the international community will have to start consultations about the introduction of further sanctions against Iran if its leadership does not abandon its plans to enrich uranium.

Earlier, the British Foreign Office expressed its concern over Iranian plans to produce high-enriched uranium.  London suggested that there is a need to discuss how the IAEA and the group of six should react.

Beijing, however, calls for restraint.  "China's position is unchanged and transparent:  we urge the sides to take measures and steps which will help to properly resolve the Iranian problem through negotiation," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu.  In his words, diplomatic steps will help promote long-term stability in the region, and "China will continue to play a constructive role in addressing the problem of Iran."

In the mean time, it emerged that the USA had announced the imposition of unilateral sanctions against the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, the elite branch of the Iranian military which is thought to monitor the implementation of the nuclear and missile programmes in Iran.  However, many experts doubt the effectiveness of the new sanctions.  In their opinion, the sanctions are largely a political measure which serve as a signal to the US Congress on the one hand, to Israel on the other, that the Obama administration has an unswerving position on this issue.

The introduction of new sanctions also postpones the contingency of a military strike against Iran.  Most experts agree that the strategic objective of stopping the Iranian nuclear programme cannot be achieved by imposing sanctions.  The fact that the USA has imposed sanctions on several nations, but all of them have failed to yield results is cited as an example.  Often, nations on which sanctions are imposed enlist the support of other nations, which results in a loss of regional influence by the United States.

While Russia agrees with the European countries and the USA that pressure on Iran should increase, China decided to move in the opposite direction.  Beijing openly demonstrates that it is not ready to support sanctions against Iran.  And this is logical too, given that the PRC has overtaken the EU and is now Iran's largest trade partner, and the lion's share of Iranian oil is exported precisely to China.  At present, about 11% of China's total energy needs are supplied by imported energy from Iran.  The total trade turnover of the two countries exceeded $36.5 billion in 2009.  As a result, Beijing, which is not interested in increasing oil prices during a period of rapid growth in its economy, is likely to veto any decision of the UN Security Council on Iran.

Finally, the position of Turkey, which has made it clear from the very outset that it will not take part in strong-arm scenarios to resolve the conflict, also appears quite important and the USA will not be able to use the Incirlik NATO Air Base near the Turkish city of Adana in this context.

In Iranian ruling circles, opinions about the expediency of the nuclear programme also differ, but new sanctions will make the different groups unite.

In this light, many analysts and politicians think that the West must increase political and diplomatic pressure on Iran.  And if the effectiveness of economic sanctions is questionable, they should be replaced by support for the domestic opposition.

This is what Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman have proposed.  They came up with a bill which proposes the compiling of a list of Iranian officials who have taken part in violations of human rights.  These people should be banned from entering the USA, and their accounts and property in the USA should be seized.

As for political pressure, it is likely that opposition sentiment can only increase in Iran, and the West will play its role in this.