"THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS..."?

It all happened as predicted by the analysts - the first round of presidential elections in Ukraine did not produce a winner. According to the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, the original favourites in the race - Chairman of the Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovych, gained 35.32 per cent of the vote and current Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, - 25.05 per cent.

Former Chief of the National Bank, Sergey Tigipko, came third with 13.05 per cent. He was followed by the former Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Arseniy Yatsenyuk ,(6.96 per cent) and the current Head of State, Viktor Yushchenko, (5.45 per cent). The "leader" of Ukraine's communists, Petro Symonenko, came sixth with 3.54 per cent. The Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Volodymyr Lytvyn, gained 2.35 per cent, the leader of the Freedom Party, Oleg Tyahnybok - 1.43 per cent and MP Anatoly Hrytsenko - 1.2 per cent. Other candidates gained less than one per cent of the vote. Not so many Ukrainians voted 'against all' - only 2.2 per cent, while the man who had previously given up his name - Vasil Protyvsih (against all) gained 0.16 per cent, while the total turnout was 66.76 per cent.

Thus, Ukraine is now preparing for the most interesting part - the final battle between Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko. The second round of elections is scheduled for 7 February. Meanwhile, as there is time at hand, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko are trying to win over those who voted for other candidates, or have not yet made up their minds.

Clearly, the small margin between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko gives the latter a good chance of winning. In addition, many political analysts believe that the leader of the Party of Regions has exhausted virtually all his electoral resources.

Moreover, Yanukovych has a lot of "minuses". Although his image-makers have done a serious job on him recently, many experts note that the head of the Party of Regions suffers from a total lack of charisma and is absolutely incapable of speaking well - precisely the qualities possessed by Yulia Tymoshenko. In an open verbal confrontation with Lady U (at least during the televised debates which the Party of Regions leader prudently rejected earlier), Yanukovych will certainly lose to the Prime Minister.

For example, Viktor Yanukovych is known for his phrase that "the woman's place is in the kitchen". The Financial Times immediately assumed that this "gross miscalculation" could cost him the support of women. Although, it seems Western journalists exaggerate slightly, since women in Ukraine are not as emancipated as in the US or the UK. Perhaps, many Ukrainian women, given financial stability in their families, would not mind "sitting" in their kitchens. So the situation here is slightly different...

According to Western media, Yanukovych's chances of winning are certainly boosted by the fact that Ukraine's richest entrepreneurs, especially the largest (and the coolest) oligarch in the country, Rinat Akhmetov, whose fortune Forbes estimates at $2 billion, plumped for him (after discussions in Courchavel). The main reason why the rustic and pro-Russian leader of the Party of Regions is favoured by Ukrainian business is most likely that he is expected to be much more flexible than the ambitious Tymoshenko. In addition, the Prime Minister, while in power, seems to have hurt some people badly...

Yes, Yanukovych is desperately trying to appear like a man of action in the eyes of voters. But what can he do in reality? This question has no answer yet. The leader of the Party of Regions, who is supported mainly by the people of Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine, promises to improve relations with Moscow but, at the same time, not to give up rapprochement with the EU. The business elite towering behind him will not allow Yanukovych to sever ties with the West, as they see the Russians as their main competitors. But it is one thing to talk, and quite another to translate your words into reality. Will Yanukovych be able to close the gap that separates the populations of Western and Eastern Ukraine? Does he have an adequate plan to fulfil his promises in the social sphere? What will he do if the Kremlin, in exchange for "gas concessions" for example, hints that he should recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Can he ensure that "the wolves are full and the sheep are alive"?

This is not to mention the fact that the winner of the presidential elections in Ukraine, whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko, will have to carry out a series of serious political reforms concerning the powers of the executive and the legislative branches. It is also clear that if Yanukovych wins, there will be a confrontation between him and Prime Minister Tymoshenko, which will certainly result in a new "war of compromising dossiers" and early parliamentary elections...

Thus, on 7 February Yanukovych might take revenge for his defeat in the previous presidential election, but the whole problem is that this revenge must be backed up by concrete action. How quickly political fortune can change from complete triumph to bitter defeat is illustrated by the incumbent President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko...

Nor is Tymoshenko going to surrender, although the image of Lady U has, of course, been tarnished significantly by accusations that her beautiful words are not backed up by deeds. She is especially badly wounded by the not very transparent allusions that the Prime Minister is seriously implicated in corruption. In addition, Tymoshenko and her team are largely responsible for the current state of Ukraine's economy. Yanukovych's conscience, compared with the "gas princess", is much clearer in this respect.

In the second round, Tymoshenko, first of all, banks on voters who are so focused on the West that they will never vote for Yanukovych. That is to say the Prime Minister's only hope is a coalition with other political forces - in many respects, this alliance would be based not so much on Tymoshenko's credibility as on distrust of the leader of the Party of Regions. According to the well-known rule, you choose "the lesser of two evils"...

Meanwhile, the position of Sergey Tigipko appears especially intriguing here. According to several media reports, in exchange for open support, Lady U has promised him the post of prime minister and his supporters half the seats in government. So Tigipko, who, perhaps, was the main, indeed the only, surprise of the first round of presidential elections in Ukraine (and some even believe that he is the "unofficial winner") will have to think carefully about his decision. In any case, immediately after preliminary results of the polls became known, he said he would not support Yanukovych or Tymoshenko, but was ready to cooperate with the politician who won the second round. As for his voters, Tigipko called them "smart people" who "decide themselves who to vote for."

It is clear that support for Yanukovych or Tymoshenko could cost Tigipko further success in the political arena, as he earned the trust of those Ukrainians who voted for him by actually contrasting himself to the team of the Prime Minister and supporters of the Party of Regions leader. Some observers already see him as a representative of "a new generation" of politicians in Ukraine who will do their job without hysterics or sudden leaps in one direction or another. Sociologists argue that Tigipko's electorate are mostly representatives of the so-called middle class who are trying to find their feet in the country. Most of them have higher education, live in the cities and see the political situation and the overall geopolitical disposition in which Kiev finds itself, from a wider perspective than a banal division into "the West" and " the East" or "Russian speakers" and "Ukrainian speakers". The fact that Tigipko is an experienced politician also speaks for him - he has already taken part in election campaigns and worked as deputy premier, minister of economy and head of the National Bank.

It is already known that the leader of A Strong Ukraine has announced his intention to create an election bloc to run in possible early parliamentary elections, in which he hopes to gain up to 17 per cent of the vote. In an interview with the BBC, Tigipko said that he might be appointed prime minister under the new president of Ukraine. He assured everyone that he was ready "to take unpopular measures and make titanic efforts to modernize the country."

Another point is that, according to some media, Tigipko's bid for the presidency could be just a cunning plan by Tymoshenko, who clearly miscalculated how hot he could make things for Yanukovych.

Notably, the closer we come to the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine, the more often we hear that there is no significant difference between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. For example, Viktor Yushchenko, who clearly lost the election, thinks so. Incidentally, he said he did not intend to quit politics. The incumbent president believes that "national and state duties do not give him the moral right to leave the political life of Ukraine". At the same time, Yushchenko's headquarters do not rule out scenarios in which the president remains in office for another five years. According to Roman Bezsmertny, deputy head of Yushchenko's headquarters, this might happen if "a court confrontation" begins after the second round of elections.

It is no less important whether the results of the second round, whatever they are, will provoke a surge of social unrest in the country. Thus, Ukrainskaya Pravda reports that the Party of Regions has already submitted an application to hold rallies in central Kiev from 17 January to 20 February. The protests will have "public informational purposes, aimed at ensuring the constitutional rights, freedoms and responsibilities of the people."

According to many observers, the first "bell" of possible unrest rang on 25 January, when an incident was reported in a Ukrainian printing house that prints ballot papers. Yanukovych's "camp" described the incident as nothing less than "a raid led by a Cabinet of Ministers representative" to "rig the results of the presidential election". Tymoshenko and her supporters flatly denied involvement in the "raid".

Returning to the question about Russian influence on the presidential election in Ukraine, it is worth noting that, on 25 January, Kiev was finally visited by the Russian ambassador, Mikhail Zurabov, whose arrival had been delayed for six months due to the fact that the Kremlin did not want to maintain official contact with Viktor Yushchenko. In the final months of the Yushchenko government, Moscow totally ignored him, engaging in dialogue only with Tymoshenko.

Against this background, a very remarkable comment was made by disgraced Russian oligarch Boris Berezovskiy, who believes that instead of "tearing his shirt", Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin wisely "deceived" Tymoshenko and "calmed her down", although the "stake has always been on Yanukovych".

At the same time, Newsweek lashed out at the EU, accusing Brussels of missing an opportunity: "Busy with domestic disputes on a new constitution and fearing that labour migrants from the East would flood the West, the EU leaders did not agree even to call Ukraine a 'European country' and refused to kick-start the process for its formal entry into the European Union". Now, notes the writer, Ukraine, standing on the brink of economic collapse, is likely to ask Moscow for help. This will largely "deprive it of its independence and exacerbate the situation in a volatile region."