FIVE YEARS AFTER THE ORANGE REVOLUTION

Ahead of the presidential elections in Ukraine, the already difficult relations between the presidential candidates have become extremely strained. They are using every means of "black PR": the country's most prominent politicians trade accusations of cowardice, theft, rigging, bribing voters and even treason.

The more than five years that have elapsed since the previous presidential election, which was accompanied by the so-called Orange Revolution, have been, quite frankly, uneasy for Ukraine. In 2004-2005, at least everything was much simpler and easier.

Now, even the most experienced and seasoned political analysts are reluctant to make unequivocal predictions. And the problem does not arise from the number of contenders for the presidency (there are 18 of them), because, as all opinion polls show, only two of them have any real chance of winning - the current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych. The domestic situation, in a country experiencing political and economic crisis in early 2010, is quite confusing. These circumstances are the most vivid illustration of Ukrainians' expectation of the winning candidate - to at least ensure stability in the country...

Meanwhile, it is clear that since the "Maydan events", the mood of most Ukrainian voters has changed, and they seem pretty tired of the endless political squabbles and intrigues, unemployment and corruption, and, near the end of the election campaign, of importunate electioneering. Some Ukrainians are especially irritated by an innocent animal - a tiger named Tigryulya, which was given to Yulia Tymoshenko, and by the posters that decorate the entire country.

It was, apparently, not in vain that one candidate - the head of the Ivano-Frankivsk Chamber of Commerce - decided to sacrifice his name for a new, more apposite one - Protyvsih, which means "against all" in Ukrainian. Indeed, it is possible that many voters will vote against all the candidates for the highest office in the country on 17 January.

According to a survey conducted by the International Foundation for Election Systems in various regions of Ukraine from 21 to 30 November 2009, 69 per cent of Ukrainians do not believe that voting in the elections will make them participants in governing the country in the future, and 74 per cent of the population do not even hope that stability and prosperity await Ukraine. Further, most respondents expressed a negative attitude towards all the major presidential candidates.

At the same time, some Ukrainians are looking to the West and others to Russia, and neither can be ignored. Against this backdrop, some analysts are seriously discussing the possible break-up of the country into at least East and West Ukraine. This is a terrible scenario and, hopefully, Ukrainian voters will make it impossible...

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, as mentioned above, are most likely to make a final choice between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych. The current president of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, has long been branded a "lame duck" by many analysts. He was unable to emerge victorious from the constant battles with his rivals.

The hero of the Orange Revolution, whose popularity rating at the height of the movement was incredibly high, approaches the next presidential election with a very low level of national trust. According to opinion polls, Yushchenko will not even gain 5 per cent of votes.

Nevertheless, he is still supported by that part of Ukrainian society which is particularly anti-Russian, and so the president is not giving up, continuing to tell Ukrainians that only he can guarantee the further development of Ukraine within a democratic framework. Yushchenko is also sure that the five years of his rule have been "the happiest period in the 18-year history of Ukrainian independence."

However, for some reason most Ukrainians still do not believe him, and the president looked clearly confused in the final days of the election campaign. This was evident from constant media reports that Yushchenko is trying unsuccessfully to unite with some of his rivals in the elections. Thus, in the early days of 2010, it was reported that the head of state was allegedly in talks to nominate a single presidential candidate from the national-democratic forces. Perhaps such a dialogue did take place, but it ended in failure precisely because Yushchenko did not see anyone but himself as the "single candidate". Among the president's potential allies were the former Defence Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko, the leader of the Ukrainian People's Party Yuriy Kostenko, the leader of the Front of Change and former speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the leader of the Nationalist Union of Freedom Oleg Tyahnybok.

However, on 4 January Hrytsenko denied on behalf of all his "companions" that he was in talks with President Viktor Yushchenko on the establishment of an electoral alliance. The leader of the Ukrainian People's Party, Yuriy Kostenko, added later that he considered the nomination of a single candidate useful only if the alliance was joined by Yulia Tymoshenko.

It had been rumoured previously that Yushchenko could agree to cooperate with Yanukovych. The former head of the Ukrainian Presidential Secretariat, Yaroslav Kozachok, said that the president and the Party of Regions leader had agreed to support Yanukovych in the second round of elections and then nominate Yushchenko as prime minister. Representatives of the Party of Regions immediately labelled the statement "a fraud and a provocation". At the same time, Yushchenko himself has never ceased to repeat that if he got into the second round, Yanukovych would never be president.

Nevertheless, the leader of the Party of Regions has a more realistic chance of winning the election. He still relies on the Russian-speaking population of Eastern Ukraine and continues to make political points about his team's opposition to the current regime in Ukraine, which has an orange background and has made many mistakes.

Against this background, Yulia Tymoshenko will try to become the new face of a well-known campaign. She has no intention of giving up her "revolutionary" past but, at the same time, she demonstrates that there is now a big difference between her and her former associates. Although, of course, government failures and charges of corruption strongly affect the political image of the current Ukrainian prime minister.

According to various opinion polls, the margin between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko ranges from 10 to 17 per cent, but it is still not enough for the leader of the Party of Regions to win the first round, as he needs to gain more than 50 per cent of the vote. Yanukovych's maximum rating, presented by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, is about 40 per cent.

Thus, the second round on 7 February clearly cannot be avoided and then, experts believe, much may depend not on voters' support for Tymoshenko or Yanukovych, but by their determination to vote against one of them. And this is what is unique about the current presidential election in Ukraine. In any case, sociologists agree that Yanukovych will become president in the end. According to the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, Yanukovych may gain 57.3 per cent of votes in the second round, while Tymoshenko will gain 39.8 per cent.

As for what will happen after the election, there are different opinions, but they all boil down to reflections on whether Yanukovych or Tymoshenko will succeed in retaining power in the event of victory...

It is believed that it will be easier for the current prime minister, because she already has a government under her control and she may well gain a de facto majority in parliament. In general, the situation is such that Tymoshenko will have time to look around, get used to her new role and then begin taking steps to form a serious and, most importantly, working team.

As for Yanukovych, he is likely have to exert himself in the post of president and dissolve parliament, to ensure his party has greater representation there, and to form a governing coalition. And before that, Yanukovych would have to face opposition from Tymoshenko, as she would be likely to remain prime minister until the formation of a new coalition. Yanukovych has already said in an interview to "Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine" that early parliamentary elections are possible.

And, of course, both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych would certainly try to ensure, as a minimum, that the legislature grants greater powers to the head of state and, at most, to restore a presidential form of government to Ukraine. But first it would be good just to determine what the powers and responsibilities of the head of the Ukrainian government actually are... If the country's constitution is not amended, squabbles between the president and the prime minister will continue, regardless of who holds these positions. And everyone knows very well what consequences that has for the country...

In addition, the head of the current opposition Party of Regions will have to become somewhat "Westernized". This will have to be done to maintain stability in the country's foreign policy, which, as demonstrated by the events of recent years, seriously affects Ukraine's domestic politics. I think the Russians will forgive Yanukovych for inevitable glances to the West, especially as they have the means to remind him of their presence if he gets carried away.

And Yulia Tymoshenko will have to become "pro-Russian"... However, she is quite good at this. Thus, while the Kremlin has decided to ignore Yushchenko, there is a completely different attitude towards Tymoshenko. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart exchanged compliments at New Year and Christmas. The Russian prime minister expressed hope that in 2010 the two countries' governments "will continue to work actively towards the realization of major joint projects for the peoples" of Russia and Ukraine...

At the same time, the three most influential EU countries - Germany, France and Britain - refrain from announcing support for any candidate in the presidential elections in Ukraine. Berlin, Paris and London have stressed that they wish to see Ukraine as "an economically strong and democratic state". In addition, European countries are in favour of "peaceful relations" between Moscow and Kiev. If we consider the consequences of the "gas" scandals between Russia and Ukraine for the European Union, the Europeans' motivation is quite understandable...

Meanwhile, many politicians and political analysts do not forecast anything good for Ukraine after the elections. For example, the leader of the Communist Party and candidate for the post of president from the Left Bloc and centre-left forces, Petr Symonenko, predicts a social explosion in his country. In his view, a number of socially important and still unresolved issues will contribute. Symonenko also noted that Ukraine is actually on the verge of default...