TEHRAN IS UNEASY

December of 2009 and the first ten days of 2010 saw mass protests in Tehran, Tabriz, Esfahan and other cities of Iran. In fact, such protests have been almost ongoing since last year's presidential election. However, the recent surge of protests took on a particularly large scale, because they coincided with the funeral of a prominent cleric, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who sharply criticized the Islamist regime, as well as with the traditional Shiite Ashura mourning day.

Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators are not only protesting against last year's rigged presidential elections, but are also sharply criticizing Iran's Islamic authorities, insisting on urgent political and social reforms in the country. The opposition is led by such prominent political figures as Iran's former Prime Minister Mir-Hoseyn Musavi, who became the leading opponent of the current president Ahmadinezhad in the last election, and former parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi. They are openly supported by the former Iranian presidents, Rafsanjani and Khatami.

According to the Western media, from 15 to 30 people have been killed. In total, as calculated by the opposition, since last summer, the number of those killed has reached 200, while thousands have been injured and arrested. At the same time, according to official figures, four people were killed and 300 were arrested during the riots on 26 December. According to analysts, the harsh actions of the Iranian authorities intend to demonstrate that they will do everything possible in order to maintain control over the situation in the country. There are even public calls for the physical elimination of the two main instigators of the riots - Musavi and Karrubi, which, however, may well backfire and further spur public unrest. In an attempt to stop the wave of protest rallies at all costs, the regime is tightening repression. Iranian Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Mohammad Najjar warned that after Ashura, anyone who takes part in the riots will have waged a war against God and will have become an enemy of national security. This means a veiled threat to use the death penalty against such people.

Iranian authorities have also accused Persian-language Western media and Internet sites like Voice of America, BBC, Radio Zamaneh and Farda, Israeli radio, the satellite channel Rangarang and others of provoking unrest in the country. In total, the activity of 60 Western organizations was outlawed. They include various centres, organizations and institutions of the United States, Israel, Britain and Germany, the Soros and Carnegie Foundations, the New America Foundation and the Foundation for Democracy in Iran. ITAR-TASS quotes informed sources in Tehran as saying that any contacts between these structures and Iranian individuals and entities and obtaining money from them, both in cash and in any other form, are illegal.

However, these threats and repression are still not working. The leader of the most organized, so-called "green" opposition movement, Musavi, said publicly that he is ready to fight the regime to the very end and achieve justice even at the cost of his own life. He urged the government to take responsibility for the bloody bacchanalia unleashed on the streets of Iranian cities. Musavi and his supporters insist on the immediate holding of new presidential elections, which should be as democratic and transparent as possible. He urged the authorities to release political prisoners, to guarantee freedom of the press and assembly and to secure other inalienable rights. A similar statement was made by another opposition leader - Karrubi. The heavyweight of the Iranian political scene, ex-President Rafsanjani, who heads two major Islamic entities - the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts, also backs these demands.

Meanwhile, the leadership of the Islamic Republic appears to have more and more difficulties in using the language of religion to justify its policies.  Among the critics of the regime were many religious scholars much earlier, but now their number has increased even more. And it is not surprising. Shiism, like many other religious groups, is much better suited to resist a tyrannical government than to control and manipulate people. Therefore, the regime is actively playing the anti-American and anti-Israeli cards. Official propaganda blames internal tensions on Western machinations, and seeks to present the opposition as Western agents in Iran. However, it must be noted that the current regime is opposed by people (Musavi, Rafsanjani, Montazeri, Khatami, Karrubi, etc.) whose contribution to the Islamic Revolution and to the establishment of the Islamic Republic is incomparably greater than that of President Ahmadinezhad and his supporters.

What is happening in Iran, according to many observers and analysts, is increasingly reminiscent of the situation preceding the fall of the shah's regime in 1979. Not only the Iranian ruling elite, but also the whole society is deeply divided. As noted above, the masses of students, intellectuals, the urban middle class and entrepreneurs consider the domestic and foreign policies of President Ahmadinezhad as deadlocked, while he is backed by the conservative ruling elite, Iranian security forces, as well as backward, poor residents of provinces and urban margins. The strata, which are accustomed to cash handouts from the regime, subsidized food and fuel, are ready to continue to support the current regime. But it must not be forgotten that Ahmadinezhad himself also participated in the overthrow of the shah's regime, and he has enough experience to avoid a repeat of the events of 1979.

However, the Iranian economy, burdened by excessive bureaucratic shackles and social obligations, military and foreign policy ambitions, is faced with serious difficulties. Also, the Islamic Republic, not wishing to limit its nuclear programme, is threatened by tougher sanctions from the international community.

In October 2009, the IAEA proposed a project, under which Iran was to hand over about 1,100 kilograms of low enriched uranium to Russia by the end of 2009. There it was to be enriched to the appropriate level and sent to France to produce fuel rods, and then returned to Iran for use in research reactors. Given Tehran's concerns, the IAEA was ready to consider an option providing for the handover of Iran's uranium to Turkey for storage until it receives the promised fuel rods. But Iran, ultimately, rejected all these options and agreed only to exchange its uranium with fuel rods directly on its own territory. Thus, the "contact Six" on Iran's nuclear issue (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) is faced with the need either to make difficult decisions about new sanctions, or admit its own powerlessness to cope with the Iranian problem.

Meanwhile, the US House of Representatives has already approved a bill, initiated by President Barack Obama, proposing a ban on business in the United States by all foreign companies that supply oil products to Iran. Experts predict further sanctions against Iranian banks on global financial markets, as well as restrictions on insurance for maritime cargo transported to Iran. Of course, all this will seriously affect the life of the country.

However, it is hard to believe that the new sanctions will be supported by Russia, China and India. The Americans are leaving the door open for negotiations, which was recently publicly stated by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The new White House administration began with criticism of the confrontational policies of the previous American president, Republican George W. Bush, who was unable to peacefully negotiate with Tehran. Having arrived at the White House, President Obama sent a number of personal messages to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i with an invitation to dialogue and publicly congratulated the Iranians on the Muslim New Year. However, the US leader never received a positive response.

Another issue that complicates the already difficult relations between the West and Iran is the situation in the south of the Arabian Peninsula - Yemen, where Zaydi insurgents (Yemeni Shiites backed by Tehran) have been engaged in a long armed fight against the central government in Sana'a. As it turned out recently, there are also terrorist camps of al-Qaeda there. It was in Yemen where the Nigerian terrorists who tried to blow up an American airliner had trained. Washington not only publicly acknowledged the failure of its intelligence service, but also decided to double military assistance to the government of Yemen to fight the rebels sponsored by Tehran.

The Iranian president demonstrates that he is not going to give in to internal or external pressure. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is expanding the front of confrontation in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran's readiness for further confrontation is demonstrated by a recent surreal decree by Ahmadinezhad to form a group to study the damage caused to Iran during the Second World War as a result of the invasion by the allied Soviet and British troops. According to him, in this war, Iran suffered greater damage than Britain or the Soviet Union.

It is hard to say how Iran's internal and external confrontation will end, but it is clear that 2010 is preparing a serious test for the country. It is clear that Iran's neighbours are watching the developments with concern and seek to minimize all risks. Contrary to the already announced and planned international sanctions, the regional countries maintain official contacts with Tehran and develop cooperation in the energy sector. For example, late last year, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan visited Iran, where, along with other documents, he signed an agreement on the participation of Turkish companies in the development of the giant gas field South Pars, which implies an annual investment of one billion dollars in the project.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov also paid a successful visit to Iran at the end of 2009. Tehran unilaterally lifted visas for visitors to Iran for a period of 15 days, and looks forward to similar steps on our part. Preparations are under way for the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Iran to meet the demand of the northern areas of the country for "blue" fuel. As the Soviet-era pipeline has not been used for a long time, at first it is planned to limit the supplies to 1.5-2 million cubic metres per day, but after appropriate repairs, they will increase to 5 billion cubic metres a year.

Iranian President Ahmadinezhad also recently paid a visit to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, where he participated in the opening of the Dovletabat-Sarakhs-Hangeran gas pipeline. Iran will receive from 8 to 20 billion cubic metres of gas per year from Turkmenistan. These two countries and Kazakhstan plan to begin the construction of a railroad that will connect Central Asia to the Persian Gulf. These examples illustrate that, despite the apparent complication of the situation in and around Iran, the regional states aim to peacefully solve the country's problems through dialogue, respect for mutual interests and cooperation.