YEREVAN COMPLAINS OF HIGH PRESSURE

Yet another year has passed in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. The intensification of the peace process and the increased concentration of negotiations allow us to hope that 2010 will be, if not a turning point, then at least productive. The reason is that the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia held six meetings in the past year. However, in respect of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev described 2009 as "less positive than it might have been." In an interview with Russia's Vesti TV, Aliyev said that in 2008 the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia signed a joint declaration on ways to resolve the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, which clearly stated that the conflict should be resolved on the basis of the principles of international law and the decisions and resolutions of international organizations. The UN resolutions, as we know, unequivocally demand the liberation of Azerbaijan's occupied territories. "Unfortunately, our expectations for 2009 have not been fulfilled to the extent we hoped, because the joint declaration by the presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia was a landmark event and was the first declaration since the signing of the cease-fire agreement in 1994. There were hopes that in 2009 we would succeed in resolving the issue, at least agreeing on basic principles, but they were not justified, and it is not our fault," the president of Azerbaijan said, pointing to Armenia's highly obstructive position.

At the same time, Baku is not going to allow the settlement process to become frozen, as President Ilham Aliyev reiterated at the opening of a residential building for veterans of the Second World War, veterans of the Karabakh war and families of martyrs in Xirdalan. Stressing his commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the president again called on the Azerbaijani army and society to be prepared to liberate our land from the invaders by any means.

Thus, at the end of the year, Aliyev reiterated that Azerbaijan is not going to change the consistent and clear position it has demonstrated throughout the entire period of negotiations. And, apparently, this position, accompanied by Azerbaijan's increasing economic potential, as well as the country's increasing role in geopolitical processes, is already beginning to yield real results. At least, President Ilham Aliyev noted, there is a certain optimism about 2010, and this is linked to the fact that the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement is now central to the international agenda. "It has become clear to many - to those who did not really understand it - that without settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, no regional problems can be resolved. We expect that we will be able to agree on basic positions during 2010," the president said.

From Armenia's point of view, the situation is completely different. If Baku welcomes increased international attention to the problem, Yerevan has recently been increasingly concerned about the growing international pressure on Armenia, not only from the West, but also from "its only ally" - Russia. For example, the Armenian website News.am has sounded the alarm that "central TV in Russia, with enviable persistence, shows the Azerbaijani leader spilling streams of criticism on the sole military and political partner of Russia in the South Caucasus - Armenia." The article also said that Vesti TV does not raise foreign policy issues without permission from the Russian political leadership.

Armenia's former Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan admits that "processes are evolving independently of us, and this entails many threats and challenges which will be harder to resist."

Political scientist Yervand Bozoyan has been more specific in his pessimistic forecasts for Armenia: "2010 will be quite a difficult year for Armenia, as strong pressure will be exerted on Nagornyy Karabakh issue. In fact, pressure will be exerted on Armenia, as Turkey, demanding progress in the Nagornyy Karabakh issue in veiled form, implicitly requires concession from Armenia, not from Azerbaijan. I think the year will be quite hard for all of us, and we must hold on."

Meanwhile, the question of rapprochement with Turkey will, apparently, increase internal pressure on the Armenian leadership. Whereas, previously, the Armenian authorities argued for a swift opening of the border to rescue the choking economy, today this argument is beginning to lose relevance. The fact is that, despite the absence of diplomatic relations, Russia and Georgia have agreed to open the Kazbegi-Upper Lars border checkpoint, which was closed after the military clash between the two countries in August 2008. Agreement was reached during Swiss-brokered talks on 23 December.

The agreement is verbal but, according to official statements, the question may be considered decided. They even mention specific dates for the opening of the border - early March.

A reasonable question arises: what made the two irreconcilable neighbours - Russia and Georgia - meet halfway? What is their common interest?

Georgia's former State Minister Kakha Bendukidze said that the opening of the Upper Lars checkpoint is important mainly for Armenia, not for Georgia. In his view, Georgia will reap zero economic benefit from the opening of the Upper Lars checkpoint and the resumption of overland communications.

According to the Armenian newspaper Novoye Vremya, "it is clear that the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols in Zurich provided a serious incentive to address the opening of the Kazbegi-Upper Lars checkpoint. Georgian leaders were aware that, immediately following ratification of the protocols, Tbilisi would lose its main mechanism of pressure on Armenia. Georgia has enjoyed a monopoly on the transit of Armenian goods for 15 years. The only way to preserve its status as a transit country is to provide Armenia with access to the north. The Georgian-Russian and Armenian-Turkish border could open almost simultaneously. Note the date - March. It is in early spring that experts expect a breakthrough in Armenian-Turkish relations. It is noticeable that the Kremlin is seeking to unblock all regional communications. So the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and the thaw in relations between Moscow and Tbilisi should be viewed as a single complex."

This is a logical explanation. It is understandable that not only Russia, but also Georgia seek to keep Armenia within their sphere of influence. But, on the other hand, the opening of the Upper Lars checkpoint could be an additional asset for the Armenian opposition, which opposes rapprochement with Turkey. In this situation, it will be difficult for Yerevan to resist pressure from the West, which has an interest in opening the Armenia-Turkey border. The only way out of this situation is to become more amenable in negotiations with Azerbaijan, which, as the leader of the Liberal Party of Armenia Hovhannes Hovhannisyan admitted, holds "the key to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations".