THE RESULT IS PREDETERMINED

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has announced that extraordinary presidential elections will be held in April 2015. He was requested to hold the extraordinary elections by the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan. The planned presidential elections, which were to be held in 2016, coincide with the parliamentary polls. Therefore, Kazakhstan decided that it is inappropriate to hold such important elections in a difficult geopolitical and economic situation. As the first president of the Kazakh SSR and then the Republic of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev has been at the helm since 1990 running.

The Kazakh political analyst and director of the Risk Assessment Group, Dosym Satpayev, told R+ about the factors that prompted Nazarbayev to hold hasty elections:

- What is the reason for the early elections? What are the specific motives here?

- Currently, the difficult economic situation in Kazakhstan and worldwide, as well as the geopolitical problems that force us to accelerate the electoral process are named as the main arguments for the early elections. The Western sanctions against Russia had a very negative impact on the economy of Kazakhstan. Already at the beginning of this year, businesses urged the government to impose temporary restrictions on the importation of Russian products, which became cheaper compared with Kazakh ones. Risks and threats increased with respect to large local companies not only in connection with the situation in Russia but also falling oil prices, slower economic growth in China, which was one of the main buyers of Kazakh raw materials, and other factors. There appeared problems with finances and risks of job cuts. This year, the echoes of the fall in oil prices and the situation in Russia will affect other segments of the Kazakh economy. The authorities began to fear a further delay in the issue of presidential elections, since it is obvious that the socioeconomic situation will only get worse and outbreaks of social tensions are possible.

We can assume that the government wants to hold the elections as soon as possible in order to carry out unpopular economic reforms immediately after them. These decisions will be aimed supporting the economy of Kazakhstan to some extent.

- Incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev has said that he has not yet decided to run for election.

- The president said that people ask him personally to run for elections and become a guarantor of the long-term development of the country again, taking into account the new risks and threats. This suggests that Nazarbayev will run in the elections. It is clear that if this happens, the elections will lose their intrigue, and the result will be virtually a foregone conclusion. In 2011, he gained 95 per cent of votes. But the most important question is what will happen after the elections. Will these elections be some sort of Rubicon, crossing which the issue of continuity of power will have to be solved sooner or later? I think that these elections will be the last for Nazarbayev. And the question arises here: Will the mechanism of succession of power be implemented during this period? Unlike other leaders of the Central Asian republics - Islam Karimov and Emomali Rahmon - Nazarbayev has a legally enforceable status as the leader of the Kazakh nation, that is to say he may leave the presidency at any time, but retain important administrative levers. Many have long expected the president to begin to realize this status. In the post-election period, the elite and the president will most likely try to implement the succession of power to one extent or another. Implementation of the succession of power is needed in order to maintain stability in Kazakhstan. The destabilization of the situation in Kazakhstan will affect all: the elite, local and foreign businesses, and a domino effect may happen, which will also affect neighbouring countries, including China. The main question is whether the elections will be the beginning of the continuity of the country's leadership. An alternative to continuity is chaos and conflicts.

- And who is the most realistic successor to Nazarbayev's government?

- Among the successors are representatives of the president's family Timur Kulibayev, Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president's nephew Samat Abish, and this list includes representatives of the old guard from the Mayor of Almaty Akhmetzhan Yesimov to Defence Minister Imangali Tasmagam-betov. The list has existed for a long time and has virtually not changed. Central to this issue is not a particular successor, since they all have the same claims and chances to get that power. The problem is that they rely on their elite groups, while in Kazakhstan there is no strong political institution represented by the parliament or political parties that could become a collective successor.

In Kazakhstan, the need for political reform is long overdue, but the president believes that all is well in the political sphere and is more concerned about the country's economy.

There can be no clear rules of the game after Nazarbayev. Now only the authority of Nazarbayev holds the elite back from any action. Society also supports Nazarbayev, but the political system cannot rely on long-term stability, relying only on the authority of one person.

- Can unpopular economic reforms cause mass protests and riots similar to what happened in 2011 in the town of Zhanaozen?

- I do not think that reforms under the current president can cause mass acts of disobedience or unrest. In Zhanaozen, the problem was about the inefficient management of the state oil company KazMunaiGas and absolutely weak trade unions, which had been specially weakened for many years so that they do not cause major problems for the owners of oil companies. By the way, after the riots in Zhanaozen, the authorities began to pay more attention to real and potential labour conflicts. For example, earlier this year, Nazarbayev ordered the government to conclude a memorandum with all large enterprises so that commercial entities guarantee the preservation of jobs and wages even in cases when companies are suffering losses.